Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

NNE Winter Thread


powderfreak

Recommended Posts

I did some pretty careful measuring in a lot of spots and unfortunately I don't think it was more than 2" on average. Still skied well and felt deeper but that's because the natural tendency is to aim for the drifted areas.

I know we are hashing out things on the noise level between 2-3" but I'm sort of anal about that stuff if you can't tell haha.

yea...2 makes sense. blown around.

your plot is at what elevation?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

looking a little better now. 3-4" above 3K. Pasted forest.

Single digits and blue skies. Some fine rink building weather.

Don't know where the dusting came from last night, I swear I saw stars before bed.

We had a little bit of what looked like a dusting this morning as well. I just attributed it as hoar frost but it did look a little different.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, Roger Hill was cautiously optimistic about the potential for two Nor’easters next week in his morning broadcast – he said it’s certainly still fragile this far out, but there’s definite potential. He’s also watching the potential for more storms beyond those.

Did you see him on WCAX last night? It was part of a story on snowmaking at cross country ski areas. I only caught part of it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Did you see him on WCAX last night? It was part of a story on snowmaking at cross country ski areas. I only caught part of it.

No, but I’ll have to see if they do any archiving. I’ve always thought that was pretty cool how some Nordic areas make snow. I assume the financials keep it from happening at more places.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yea...2 makes sense. blown around.

your plot is at what elevation?

I've got a temporary one at roughly 3,200ft (ish) at Nosedive/Rim Rock in the flats there.

If Gondi opens Saturday that'll be moved to my usual High Road/ Perry Merrill spot. I'll have to show you that one this year... absolutely picture perfect for measuring snow at 3,000ft. Flat with a pretty even opening in the tree canopy.

I really love getting a good storm to measure back there, haha. That Feb 26 upslope storm last year included the largest total I've recorded in 3 years at that spot (pretty much 23" in 23 hours with no clearing of the board)... with 23" between 2pm 2/25 and 1pm 2/26. It then snowed another foot after that before tapering off. Essentially 36" in 36 hours.

Need more storms like this... you can tell how fluffy the snow is because the clumps blowing off the trees leave holes in the snowpack.

IMG_2405_edited-1.jpg

IMG_2407_edited-1.jpg

I also remember it took for friggin' ever to get there and its only like 150 feet off the trail...but its a traverse and going side-hill and swimming through two feet of fluff leads to a skier sweating like a fat man chasing the ice cream truck.

IMG_2402_edited-1.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty good confidence for the 5-7 day range but not "epic"....(yet)

LOOKING MORE WINTRY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WE TURN COLDER THIS

PERIOD...AS THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL AS THE

TRUE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS FAR REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WE

BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE PASSING TO OUR NORTH WITH AN

ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT ON

FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. BRIEF

RIDGING FOLLOWS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA NOSING INTO

THE FORECAST AREA WITH COLD DRY AIR FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY

NIGHT. THEREAFTER...NUMERICALS AGREE ON EVOLVING BROAD TROUGH OVER

THE CONUS BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES. FOR SUNDAY...CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF

LEAD IMPULSE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT SNOWS BREAKING OUT

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING AS COLUMN IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS REDEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WITH

COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR A LARGELY FROZEN EVENT EVEN IN COASTAL

SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE

ARRIVES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH SURFACE LOW AGAIN PASSING TO

OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A LARGELY SNOW EVENT FOR

THE FORECAST AREA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty good confidence for the 5-7 day range but not "epic"....(yet)

LOOKING MORE WINTRY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WE TURN COLDER THIS

PERIOD...AS THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL AS THE

TRUE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS FAR REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WE

BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE PASSING TO OUR NORTH WITH AN

ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT ON

FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. BRIEF

RIDGING FOLLOWS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA NOSING INTO

THE FORECAST AREA WITH COLD DRY AIR FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY

NIGHT. THEREAFTER...NUMERICALS AGREE ON EVOLVING BROAD TROUGH OVER

THE CONUS BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES. FOR SUNDAY...CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF

LEAD IMPULSE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT SNOWS BREAKING OUT

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING AS COLUMN IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS REDEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WITH

COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR A LARGELY FROZEN EVENT EVEN IN COASTAL

SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE

ARRIVES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH SURFACE LOW AGAIN PASSING TO

OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A LARGELY SNOW EVENT FOR

THE FORECAST AREA.

Pretty reasonable this far out, Nothing more you can really say

Link to comment
Share on other sites

000

FLUS41 KGYX 130819

HWOGYX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME

319 AM EST THU DEC 13 2012

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-141100-

NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-

SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-

INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-

COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-

NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-

SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-

STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-

319 AM EST THU DEC 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW

HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK IN

THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND TRACK NORTHEAST . ALTHOUGH FORECAST

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS

STORM...THERE IS A THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT

AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

At this juncture it still is, We did not resolve much overnight other then some model solutions were warmer and still trying to iron out which of the 3 s/w are going to be the main players which will effect this area

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It would be good to get this forum conversation going for what is likely to occur region-wide from Sunday the 16th through the holidays. I feel like a lot of my over/underreaction is based on what largely what the SNE posters are saying when we should be able to better summarize what each model run means for NNE on this board. Anyone with better meteo skills than me want to get us started as to where things stand?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It would be good to get this forum conversation going for what is likely to occur region-wide from Sunday the 16th through the holidays. I feel like a lot of my over/underreaction is based on what largely what the SNE posters are saying when we should be able to better summarize what each model run means for NNE on this board. Anyone with better meteo skills than me want to get us started as to where things stand?

Your location is probably a good place to start, That could have a greater bering for you

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am currently in Peacham, VT at ~1500'. We are in a good snow belt. Also, I'm very interested as to how Burke Mountain will make out.

Honesty at this point guidance is all over the place for solutions up here. Anything from a driving rainstorm to a whiff.

I think we will see SOMETHING but who knows how much right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Honesty at this point guidance is all over the place for solutions up here. Anything from a driving rainstorm to a whiff.

I think we will see SOMETHING but who knows how much right now.

I do not need a huge storm to make me happy right now. A series of 3"-6" events would be really nice though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Honesty at this point guidance is all over the place for solutions up here. Anything from a driving rainstorm to a whiff.

I think we will see SOMETHING but who knows how much right now.

Yeah I'm on the same page... there's a chance for snow and an outside shot at mixed/rain. Every model run comes out with something different... from a Norlun inverted trough on the 6z GFS to the southwest flow event on the 12z NAM to a big bomb coastal with a driving rain/wet snow.

Also hard to separate them all because each system seems to merge into the one prior... and some models have it on Sunday, others on Monday, then the second storm is Tue/Wed while others push it off till Wed/Thurs.

Lots of issues right now for a deterministic forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It would be good to get this forum conversation going for what is likely to occur region-wide from Sunday the 16th through the holidays. I feel like a lot of my over/underreaction is based on what largely what the SNE posters are saying when we should be able to better summarize what each model run means for NNE on this board. Anyone with better meteo skills than me want to get us started as to where things stand?

Yeah, the main discussion is very helpful, and I enjoy reading the thoughts, but the general “one-liner” style posts are often heavily weighted toward things going on in the southern part of New England (e.g. latest SREFs look good etc.). You’re just not as likely to get hour by hour updates on nuances farther north. That’s not all that different than what goes on up in this forum, as in, I’m not likely to post the winter storm warning maps or excerpts from the forecast discussion from somewhere in Connecticut. That’s to be expected, but it just means taking some of the comments in the main threads with a grain of salt – at times you actually have to reverse what is said in some of those posts, since what is bad news down there may be good news up here and vice versa. However, the meteorologists and other professionals often provide much more comprehensive posts that are not as focused on their own back yards, so those can be very helpful to others in the region. I suspect we’ll start getting some more NNE-focused analysis in this thread as things solidify though; PF and adk will generally provide their thoughts for the mountains, Dendrite will give his thoughts, etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...