J.Spin Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 MY BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR ONLY VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SAY A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH...WITH A GENERAL 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ABOVE 1 KFT AND PERHAPS 3-5" NEAR THE SUMMIT LEVEL. I was initially curious when I saw the projected snowfall for the higher elevations of Mt. Mansfield in the point forecast, but they don’t seem too out of line with the discussion. Point forecast for our area in the valley seems to mesh well with discussion as well. In any event, it will be nice to be back to snow as today was sloppy. I probably won’t be up to report on the changeover time, so I’ll just have to see how it turns out in the morning. Mt. Mansfield Tonight: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after midnight. Low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -5. Windy, with a west wind 26 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Waterbury Tonight Rain before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow between 1am and 2am, then a chance of snow after 2am. Low around 25. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 BTV VAD is showing a wind shift moved through within the last half hour... now WNW flow under 4-5,000ft with still WSW above that. Looks like an inversion setting up near ridgetop level and that may be why the BTV discussion mentions low Froude numbers with plenty of orographic blocking on the west side. Radar showing the rare downsloping on the immediate east slope of the Spine, with what appears to be upslope enhancement again reforming in the RT 100 corridor (village marker) as the flow is blocked by the 3,000ft+ Worcester Ridgeline on the east side of town. Very interesting meso-scale stuff... rarely do I see the downsloping here on the Mountain Road (RT 108) like this with heavier precipitation over the village center. Usually its the other way around, with precipitation weakening as you head towards the village center east on RT 108. But very evident two bands from the two ridgelines in this area...Mansfield to the west and Worcester Range on east side of town. Anyway, you can also see snow levels dropping now back across the Adirondacks with that wind shift... we'll see what morning brings on the mountain. Not expecting anything down here at home, especially if this downsloping continues on RT 108/Mountain Road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 36.5F StarDot 5MP NetCam SC with IR has arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Anyway, you can also see snow levels dropping now back across the Adirondacks with that wind shift... we'll see what morning brings on the mountain. Not expecting anything down here at home, especially if this downsloping continues on RT 108/Mountain Road. Im in Central NY where the radar has us turning back over to snow and I can confirm that it is most definitely raining here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.69” L.E. I checked the gauge at 7:00 P.M. and there was 0.52” of liquid to add to this morning’s frozen allotment, so liquid is close to two inches for the month thus far. That’s pretty good for only 1/3 of the way through the month. If the storms keep coming the mountains will produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 BTV VAD is showing a wind shift moved through within the last half hour... now WNW flow under 4-5,000ft with still WSW above that. Mt. Mansfield is down to 32 F as of 9:00 P.M.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Mixing with snow here at 1500ft on Burke mountain. 34F All snow at mid lodge. 33F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 I could count the flakes on my car this morning in town... so "T" it is. Up at 1,500ft we didn't do much better with only a dusting... <1/4" Sounds like about an inch fell from somewhere between 2,000-2,500ft and higher. You win some and you lose some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.99” L.E. There’s no snow to report down at our elevation, but we’ve had just about an inch of liquid total for the event to bring the month to 2.10” at this point. The mountains certainly got some snow, although it was surprising to see just an inch reported from Stowe this morning based on when the temperature started dropping on Mt. Mansfield yesterday. In his early morning WDEV broadcast, Roger Hill actually spoke about the potential for snow from the possible weekend system. To hear that the ECMWF has gone colder was encouraging, and he said that the GFS was in that camp, but he doesn’t seem sold because the Canadian Model wasn’t with them. I was surprised to see so much weight given to the Canadian relative to those other two, but perhaps he’s just not sold on those solutions yet. He did offer that with regard to what he’s seeing now, it would be a 3 to 6-inch sort of deal. It’s still a good distance out there though and solutions will probably change a lot before we get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The next 2 weeks could be some fun times for the folks of NNE........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I could count the flakes on my car this morning in town... so "T" it is. Up at 1,500ft we didn't do much better with only a dusting... <1/4" Sounds like about an inch fell from somewhere between 2,000-2,500ft and higher. You win some and you lose some. We had a quick burst of snow around 6:30 that dropped about a tenth of an inch. It was pretty localized with nothing at all a half mile down the road. By the time I was coming down the hill into Montpelier the roads were dry. You could see icing on the mountains above Berlin Pond and the Worcester Range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The next 2 weeks could be some fun times for the folks of NNE........ Yeah, from what I could gather, it sounded like there is some potential. No real cold though to freeze the ground an water solid. Around here, riding doesn't really get decent till after New Year's usually, and I have to keep telling myself that. I was never that anxious about winter until I started reading these boards and now it is like a soap opera, As the Weenie Turns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Yeah, from what I could gather, it sounded like there is some potential. No real cold though to freeze the ground an water solid. Around here, riding doesn't really get decent till after New Year's usually, and I have to keep telling myself that. I was never that anxious about winter until I started reading these boards and now it is like a soap opera, As the Weenie Turns lol, Yes, If you can ride in Dec, That usually a bonus, Water is probably going to be a problem once again, It does look to get colder after the 1st system around the 16th, We shall see how it all shakes out, But that periods potential being this far out is pretty high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 36.5F StarDot 5MP NetCam SC with IR has arrived. Congrats on the stardot? I assume a weathercam is incoming??? Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The next 2 weeks could be some fun times for the folks of NNE........ Looking forward to it, Jeff! The AFD from Gray this morning was a turn in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Looking forward to it, Jeff! The AFD from Gray this morning was a turn in the right direction. Yes John, I think old man winter may arrive on a sleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 A solid 0.0" here in lyndonville. Not really surprised though. Looks like Burke accumulated snow above like 1,800-2,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 A solid 0.0" here in lyndonville. Not really surprised though. Looks like Burke accumulated snow above like 1,800-2,000ft. Yeah that seems to be about the line here, too, when you go from a trace/dusting to 1"< with snow on the trees and everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I could count the flakes on my car this morning in town... so "T" it is. Up at 1,500ft we didn't do much better with only a dusting... <1/4" Sounds like about an inch fell from somewhere between 2,000-2,500ft and higher. You win some and you lose some. Looks like Bolton Valley did pretty well: Here's Walden in the NEK too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Looks like Bolton Valley did pretty well: Yeah, I took at look at the Bolton Valley Live Web Cam, and it looks like there’s a nice new covering of snow in place: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Yeah, Sugarbush commtiited to reporting their snow totals from the BASE a few years ago, not sure how long that lasted, but it doesn't seem like they do anymore. I should email Win and ask why.... Like the name........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Congrats on the stardot? I assume a weathercam is incoming??? Gene I want one of those cams. Anything has better res than my trendnet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Burke snow level around 1800ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Early morning report was updated... a healthy 2" above 2,500-3,000ft. I see Smuggs is showing 3" and so is Sugarbush. The other thing is it seems that other resorts are getting away from giving base and summit snowfall ranges so folks know what to expect when you pull in the parking lot. Sugarbush is showing 3" of new snow on their report and no mention of anything less but the webcam seems to show a sloppy dusting on some surfaces in the base area. MRG right next door updated this morning with a dusting to 1". I found dusting in the gondi lot, 1 inch about 500 feet above that (so around 2k) and then something like 2-3 - it blew around a great deal- above 2500 feet. On the low end of forecasted totals but certainly reasonable given the structure of the overall event. Skied well if you knew where to ski. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 ok so which one of you nice gentleman wants to invite me up and offer me a place to crash so i can witness accumulating snow? I canceled winter for myself back in October as I was watching the seasonal transition and the pattern that was evolving...SNE is screwed, but CNE and NNE, especially those with elevation might still have a bit of hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Picked up a coating late last night. Gone now as the sun has come out Looked good for the few hours the ground was white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Getting pretty interested in the potential for a low to barrel across the country and bring some decent snows to the ADK and VT next sunday into tuesday. We've seen these bowling ball systems before be good for a solid widspread 8-16 inches. No idea if we are there now but I'm wathcing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 I found dusting in the gondi lot, 1 inch about 500 feet above that (so around 2k) and then something like 2-3 - it blew around a great deal- above 2500 feet. I did some pretty careful measuring in a lot of spots and unfortunately I don't think it was more than 2" on average. Still skied well and felt deeper but that's because the natural tendency is to aim for the drifted areas. I know we are hashing out things on the noise level between 2-3" but I'm sort of anal about that stuff if you can't tell haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 ok so which one of you nice gentleman wants to invite me up and offer me a place to crash so i can witness accumulating snow? I canceled winter for myself back in October as I was watching the seasonal transition and the pattern that was evolving...SNE is screwed, but CNE and NNE, especially those with elevation might still have a bit of hope... maddam cleo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Sugarbush does generally report base-mid-summit. Dont know what happened this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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