dryslot Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Some snow in Jackman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Some snow in Jackman At least someone is getting the white. Extended forecast is clear, cool and dry, followed by, let me guess, warm and wet? . Was out working on the snowmobile trails yesterday and there's a lot of standing water. Buried the Mule at one point in a sink hole. Better get cold fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 0.5" here snow/sleet before the changeover to RN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 At least someone is getting the white. Extended forecast is clear, cool and dry, followed by, let me guess, warm and wet? . Was out working on the snowmobile trails yesterday and there's a lot of standing water. Buried the Mule at one point in a sink hole. Better get cold fast. Next weekends system looks interesting for this area that should be watched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Just finally got my lazy azz out of bed to go to my 930am class, lol. Looks like 0.75" snow, 0.1" ZR here in Lyndonville. Rain and 34F. Worst weather ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 2 new in Newry, Me SR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Next weekends system looks interesting for this area that should be watched I wouldn't be surprised if it get squashed too far south..definitely possible with high latitude blocking, and -NAO developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 34F and rain on 91 in Newbury, VT (mile marker 110) according to the mesowest station. That's not good. All liquid the whole storm. Busted badly. BTV 4km WRF had that pegged. Downsloping off the Whites and a south wind up the CT River Valley. Rain. 33. Second storm I've been here that the cold has been scoured out quicker than forecast. Looks like maybe an inch of snow.::just a guess though Always does in the Passumpsic/CT River Valleys with strong south-southeasterly flow like this. I've seen St. Johnsbury be the warmest place in the state on some occasions like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Had 27F with 1.8" at my place at 7 AM, all snow, with 0.24" LE - lots of tiny flakes for that 7.5 ratio. -SN with some decent dendrites as I left the house. Precip changed to IP/ZR as I got toward Belgrade, and all ZR in AUG with about 1/4" on the ground. Looks like FRDZ at the moment, and the trees are showing a bit of accretion, though still <0.1". Maybe the wrm air will delay long enough so I can record the season's first day with 1"+ OG (at my 9 PM obs time. This morning was the 2nd day with 2" reported for 7 AM cocorahs.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised if it get squashed too far south..definitely possible with high latitude blocking, and -NAO developing. 12z GFS is trying to do that very thing but retrogrades it back NW at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 BTV 4km WRF had that pegged. Downsloping off the Whites and a south wind up the CT River Valley. Always does in the Passumpsic/CT River Valleys with strong south-southeasterly flow like this. I've seen St. Johnsbury be the warmest place in the state on some occasions like this. No kidding! Some hi-res models had a NE flow at the sfc in the upper Passumpsic until 14z today, but the downsloping flow basically took over. We managed 0.8" and a tenth of ice here in the upper valley, and actually while it was 34F here at 1k, it was still 32 down at 650ft in St. J, granted many surfaces were >32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 0.7" of slush at 6am with moderate rain falling. Should have stayed in Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Nailed the temperatures last night... ...however, there was not enough QPF to really give my warning area any significant issues. It got focused in the wrong places, and after all that concern I had over forecast QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Look at the contrast between west of the spine and east of the spine in this area... I'm up to 40F now but looks like 50F+ is just on the otherside of the mountain. And just for the record... No freezing rain or icing noted in this area below 2,000ft. Up at the summit of the lifts at 3,600ft there was 1/4" of ice on everything (summit lodge was just a big icicle)...nothing that elevation doesn't see many times a year.... tapering to 1/10th of an inch at 2,500ft. Only some scattered ice noted on tree tops between 2000-2500ft with nothing below 2000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 12z GFS is trying to do that very thing but retrogrades it back NW at the end 15" of retro-bomb for D8-9, lol. Then 12 hr later the LP is in Newf. Double lol. Still 30 with FZDZ in AUG. Hope the roads are well treated for the ride home. My little pickup's snow tires remain under the back porch, and the balsam poplar logs I use for weight are still in the side yard. Maybe my un-preparation means more wintry wx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Up to 37F in Plymouth. Just a little different from my house up to 57F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Stuck at 37F here and in the 1/16SM pea soup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Hopefully we can pick up some snow tonight... still looks decent across the north for a coating of white by morning as that colder air sags south. Zone forecast has 1-3" in it, and the point and click for the mountain is showing 3-7"!! That seems ambitious... would be great if we could whiten the ground for this week. Tonight: Rain or snow until midnight...then snow likely after midnight. Total snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Lows around 20. Light and variable winds...becoming northwest around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Tonight: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after midnight. Low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -5. Windy, with a west wind 26 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Mountain forecast for Mansfield is showing a total of 5" by 6am (last line down)...crossing fingers because it'd save the snow conditions from just being a block of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 15" of retro-bomb for D8-9, lol. Then 12 hr later the LP is in Newf. Double lol. Still 30 with FZDZ in AUG. Hope the roads are well treated for the ride home. My little pickup's snow tires remain under the back porch, and the balsam poplar logs I use for weight are still in the side yard. Maybe my un-preparation means more wintry wx? Apps runner on the euro, Model mayhem at its finest, 35F steady temps all day here, With off and on drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Hopefully we can pick up some snow tonight... still looks decent across the north for a coating of white by morning as that colder air sags south. Zone forecast has 1-3" in it, and the point and click for the mountain is showing 3-7"!! That seems ambitious... would be great if we could whiten the ground for this week. Tonight: Rain or snow until midnight...then snow likely after midnight. Total snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Lows around 20. Light and variable winds...becoming northwest around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Tonight: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after midnight. Low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -5. Windy, with a west wind 26 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. I think 1-3" may be a bit robust for lower elevations, honestly. We are forecasting 1-2" above 1,500' for zone 6 (your area)...granted I didn't forecast today. I think up above 2,500' could see 3-5"...if you notice, guidance brings the 850 0C line through N VT about 3 hours earlier than at the surface. During those 3 hours, that second wave of precip is coming through with about 0.25" of QPF. So, basically I'd say D-1" below 1,000ft, 1-2" 1,000ft-1,500ft, 2-4" 1,500ft-2,500ft, 3-5" above 2,500ft. It's all about timing in these afrontal situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 .DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY BUT THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. A PATTERN CHANGE IS POTENTIALLY IN THE OFFING ON SUNDAY AS SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL LOW FORMING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HPC HAS INDICATED LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS JUNCTURE IN A STRONG LOW FORMING IN/NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS THE 12 UTC OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING. SINCE THIS IS DAYS 6 AND 7 OF THE FORECAST WE HAVE DECIDED TO TREND UPWARD WITH THE POPS BUT SEE NO REASON TO JUMP ON A MAJOR SNOWSTORM BANDWAGON WITH CONFIDENCE SO LOW. STAY TUNED. Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 I think 1-3" may be a bit robust for lower elevations, honestly. We are forecasting 1-2" above 1,500' for zone 6 (your area)...granted I didn't forecast today. I think up above 2,500' could see 3-5"...if you notice, guidance brings the 850 0C line through N VT about 3 hours earlier than at the surface. During those 3 hours, that second wave of precip is coming through with about 0.25" of QPF. So, basically I'd say D-1" below 1,000ft, 1-2" 1,000ft-1,500ft, 2-4" 1,500ft-2,500ft, 3-5" above 2,500ft. It's all about timing in these afrontal situations. I agree fully... I am not expecting anything more than an inch at home in the village at 750ft. And even that would be pushing it. Temps will be slow to drop here, so I envision it snowing at like 34-36F and not accumulating, while up at the office at 1,500ft its 31-32F and accumulating. And the point and click for 800ft in Stowe reflects this with accumulations less than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Stuck at 37F here and in the 1/16SM pea soup. Brutal. Fog never came close to lifting here either. Any progress on that vis sensor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Went to Burke yesterday to ski. Made three runs and it was so bad my wife and I put on our hiking shoes and scaled the toll road to the summit. I doubt that would be possible most seasons on December 9th. I hope that it's not possible again any other weekend until late April or May, although it was really fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I went 3-6 for elevation, T-1 below 1500. This winter, that's bascially been the M.O. for fronts. Why change now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Just got back from a run. Nothing like 35, fog, dark and rain to make for a nice run. At least it wasn't windy. Wierd but I just noticed the temp jumped from 36 to 42 between 4 and 5 in St. J. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Just got back from a run. Nothing like 35, fog, dark and rain to make for a nice run. At least it wasn't windy. Wierd but I just noticed the temp jumped from 36 to 42 between 4 and 5 in St. J. Now that's dedication to running! Speaking of temp jumps, I noticed Mansfield spiked earlier, too. I was monitoring the ski area temperatures on our own network, and the top of the FourRunner Quad (3,600ft) had been holding in the upper 20s all morning and slowly crept up to 30-31F but held there for a while. Then an hour later I checked and it was near 40F on that station... wasn't sure what to think because the mid (2,600ft) and low (1,500ft) elevation stations didn't show any increase at that time. Looks like based on the data from Mansfield's "Nose" though the temp jump was correct as MMNV1 rose 9F in 90 minutes. What's interesting is that the temp was holding near 30F for a long time, then jumped to 40F quickly, and then held at 40-41F for the rest of the afternoon. It wasn't like a gradual rise that kept going all afternoon... it just jumped and then held again. Also some big winds up there but I'm not sure if I trust those obs with the freezing rain that happened up there. But if so, there's a bunch of 70-80mph gusts in there with the highest I can find at 82mph. I'm just skeptical of readings like 3:50pm where its sustained at 28mph but gusting over 80mph. That's quite a leap between sustained/gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Brutal. Fog never came close to lifting here either. Any progress on that vis sensor? Down to 36F now.Haven't worked on the sensor yet. I'm still in the process of purchasing all of the equipment. Some of the sensors are backordered so it may be a few weeks. Today would've been a great day for it though. The local RWIS has been between 1/10-1/4SM most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 OF ADDITIONAL INTEREST IS THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT STILL STATIONARY FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LEADING FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR BACK BEHIND THIS SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW SWINGS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...THIS FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST AND OVERTAKE THE LEAD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. FLOW TRENDS NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS PASSAGE WITH STRONG CAA SETTING UP AS 925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES CRASH AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL RELIABLE MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD FROM ABOUT 02Z-07Z AS THIS OCCURS AND BACK EDGE OF PCPN EXITS TO THE EAST. LOW FROUDE NUMBER PROFILES SUPPORT AMPLE LOW LEVEL BLOCKING FAVORING THE WESTERN SLOPES AS MEAN PBL WINDFLOW TRENDS NORTHWEST. HOWEVER... PROBLEMATIC ISSUES ON POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXIST AS USUAL...AND MAINLY CONCERN A NARROWING COLUMNAR MOISTURE DEPTH OVER TIME AND HOW QUICKLY THE NEAR-SFC 2M TEMPERATURES CAN COOL AS EVIDENCED BY 12Z 3-HRLY MOS NUMBERS. AFTER USING SEVERAL METHODS...MY BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR ONLY VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SAY A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH...WITH A GENERAL 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ABOVE 1 KFT AND PERHAPS 3-5" NEAR THE SUMMIT LEVEL. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD MILD THROUGH EARLY...THAN FALL RATHER SHARPLY LATER TONIGHT BOTTOMING OUT FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH AND WEST...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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