ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Yeah I like a D-2" (probably more like 1-2") in the valleys of northern VT east of the Spine, and locally up to 6" in the favored spots from Jay Peak to Belvidere to Mansfield. A lot of the meso-scale models on the PSU E-Wall site are showing as much as 0.4-0.5" QPF in extreme N.NH and then also near Jay Peak. Yeah I think 1-2" by Friday morning in the valleys is pretty likely...even if its like 0.5" tonight and 1" tomorrow evening. I think somewhere near Jay or even into extreme northern NH could see a combined 3-5" by Friday morning. Better than cold and dry I suppose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 Getting some weenie light snow now..mountain behind it's gray snow curtain, but I can still see the lowest ski slopes so it can't be snowing more than a hard flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 I am at Topnotch on the Mountain Rd and it's snowing pretty nicely. Probably like 1 mile vis light snow. Flake size has improved a lot to big fluffy dendrites. When it started it was like very fine flakes...like a snow mist. Dusting on everything except the road but now that the sun is down and temp down from 34F to 31F it's starting to stick to paved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 NOW.... Snow showers will begin to develop over the Champlain Valley by 400 PM and spread east into the rest of Vermont by 500 PM. Precipitation will continue through 600 PM. A dusting to an inch of accumulation is possible through 600 PM. Higher amounts will occur over northern Vermont. Temperatures around freezing will drop through 600 PM...creating the potential for hazardous driving conditions due to snow covered roads and reduced visibilities. Motorists should use caution over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 BTV going with 2-4" in the zone forecast product here in Lamollie County for the WINDEX like event tomorrow night... Thursday Partly sunny with a chance of snow showers in the morning...then cloudy with snow showers likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Thursday Night Cloudy with snow showers likely until midnight... then partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Cold with lows around 9 above. West winds 15 to 20 mph...becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 18z hi-res nam via SV accumulated precip and snow depth by 6z Saturday, FWIW. Overdone on qpf and probably decent on snow depth, but it shows the usual suspects doing well...and even valley locations receiving 1-3" from the valley floor up to 1,500ft with 3-4" above that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Weenie flakes with milky clouds filtering the moon somewhat. 27F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 i really really miss stowe and the wx on mountain road. it's such a weenies paradise. i love just having snow in the air. i'm starting to follow the day to day weather there a bit closer so its interesting to see when it snows and when it's forecast. one thing i'm somewhat intrigued about is wether the upslope events favor the west slope or east slope. there MUST be some thing measurable we can look at to see which side of the slope will bear the brunt. also i would wonder if anyone has a ball park guess /date on say looking at the last 50 upslope events. how many were east slope centered , west slope centererd, or even fairly neutral. tonite returns look like they feel apart as they went over the spine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 Picked up a quick half inch here at Topnotch on Mtn Rd...still snowing. Wet snow but good flakes so that half inch is stuck to every branch and twig. Looks beautiful out. Just drove up to get something from the office and there is a healthy inch (1-1.5") new up there since 4pm. Enough for the state DOT truck to plow on RT 108 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 there MUST be some thing measurable we can look at to see which side of the slope will bear the brunt. also i would wonder if anyone has a ball park guess /date on say looking at the last 50 upslope events. how many were east slope centered , west slope centererd, or even fairly neutral. tonite returns look like they feel apart as they went over the spine The radar usually is a little misleading too...we got a quick half inch below 1000ft in like an hour as that band moved through. Solid moderate snow for a spell. But I think what you are looking for is the inversion level. But also most events are fairly neutral or not that cut and dry....ie the west side gets 24" in Underhill and I get 16". Or 10" vs 6". The ski area will amost always be the max in this area because it's the epicenter of the Spine...but west slope towns usually do best vs east side towns, however this side preserves snow really well. I don't know...it usually works out and snows on both sides, but minor differences can cause max amounts on one side or the other. But the inversion level is the main player because if it goes below ridgetop height then east side won't get much at all. That seems to happen more in the coldest airmasses while larger upslope events (like behind a nor'easter or vertically stacked low over N. Maine) hits both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Steady SN- now. Much healthier snow growth above 1,000ft. Solid coating already. Roads are cold so it's sticking quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 Steady SN- now. Much healthier snow growth above 1,000ft. Solid coating already. Roads are cold so it's sticking quickly. Yeah radar sucks out your way but you'll probably get the band that went through here. I think it's with the front and definitely tapped some great snow growth temps aloft. Still light snow but can see some breaks in the clouds with moonlight so probably wrapping up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Yeah radar sucks out your way but you'll probably get the band that went through here. I think it's with the front and definitely tapped some great snow growth temps aloft. Still light snow but can see some breaks in the clouds with moonlight so probably wrapping up here. Yeah, I was out visiting a buddy on a classic VT country dirt road at 1,300ft and up there they had about 0.25" and all the roads were covered and it was actually pretty slick considering the accumulation. Back here at 1,050ft now we have a solid coating (maybe 0.1"?) but its really lightened up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Just a few weenie flakes with partially clear skies. 27F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 Bout a half inch of snow and now only scattered flurries from time to time. I'm some what curious about what happens overnight given a bunch of snow showers and moisture moving in from the Lake Ontario region... you can see the moisture increase across N.NY and working eastward into VT. Given this radar image, wouldn't surprise us to see more light accumulating snow showers overnight as that moisture hits the Greens. Maybe a couple/few inches at the mountain where there's already over an inch from the earlier snow showers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace L.E. 0.2” from this latest shortwave today as of 8:00 P.M., although we’re getting some additional accumulation now with an uptick in snowfall: Some details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations are below: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 31.8 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: Trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 0.3" here in Lyndonville with SN- ongoing. Should at least hit 0.5", if not slightly more by morning. Plenty more little bursts of snow to go overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Looks like whites and greens see some decent up slope snows thurs night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 Looks like a quick inch of snow with this bow echo heading into the northern Greens, lol. Not sure if it clips us here, but Belvidere area to Johnson will get a solid burst. A couple good snow showers have moved through here lately, but only like 5-10 minute quick movers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Snowing hard. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 S+ wow. 0.75" total and its dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Downtown lyndonville. Dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Times are tough in nne when weenies are out measuring because of .75" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Times are tough in nne when weenies are out measuring because of .75" of snow True statement. It's rough. 3.3" YTD. terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I cannot complain about the snow season so far. GYX averages 3.0" for November and I am at 2.1", so that's about on par. Now December is a different story .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.02” L.E. we’re getting some additional accumulation now with an uptick in snowfall... Another 0.3” of snow fell overnight to finish off that shortwave; the next event up is the arctic cold front for tonight, with the point forecast here calling for 1-3”. Below is a portion of the text from the BTV short term forecast discussion: AS OF 509 AM EST THURSDAY...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY ...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0 Snow Density: 6.7% H2O Temperature: 25.5 F Sky: Mostly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 It looks like my wife and I will be staying here in Maine at least through winter. I posted a while back that we were moving to Pennsylvania. That has been put on hold until April. So one more winter to enjoy here in NNE, and I hope it's a blockbuster winter to remember! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 It looks like my wife and I will be staying here in Maine at least through winter. I posted a while back that we were moving to Pennsylvania. That has been put on hold until April. So one more winter to enjoy here in NNE, and I hope it's a blockbuster winter to remember! Sorry to hear your plans were delayed. I was thinking of your webpage yesterday when it looked like you were getting snow from the radar. I was going to check your cam but figured it wasn't up still. Looks like a beautiful morning out there today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 It looks like my wife and I will be staying here in Maine at least through winter. I posted a while back that we were moving to Pennsylvania. That has been put on hold until April. So one more winter to enjoy here in NNE, and I hope it's a blockbuster winter to remember! Glad to hear you'll be sticking around for one more ... hopefully one to remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 Times are tough in nne when weenies are out measuring because of .75" of snow lol... its been pretty close to average for November. It is still November... and it actually doesn't snow up here as much as some thing this time of year. These D-2" and 1-3" events are just about par for the course this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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