NNE Winter Thread

[borderwx]

love the lakes. we missed out on this last year it seemed. Dec should be one giant flurry in the valley and daily Mt deposits. Nice to watch the clouds roll in. Lots of anticipation.

steely morning NNE (tip o da hat Allenson)

[Lava Rock]

Be nice to see a flake or two here. Supposed to be coming. You VT guys are doing well.

[dryslot]

Be nice to see a flake or two here. Supposed to be coming. You VT guys are doing well.

Yeah, Next month

[N. OF PIKE]

Watching the daily deposit on mansfield for a moment b4 I hit the slopes again. Tryin to figure out if tim kelly is the guy out by the picnic tables shooting some pics and vids

[ctsnowstorm628]

Elevation dependent dusting-3" possible Wednesday morning through Thursday night? Seems plausible with that cold front coming through.

[powderfreak]

Elevation dependent dusting-3" possible Wednesday morning through Thursday night? Seems plausible with that cold front coming through.

Yeah I think there's a good chance of more nickel and dime stuff like tomorrow and then into Friday morning.

FROPA dropping south with Lake Champlain warm to moisten the low levels and then orographic lift...I really don't think the lake does too much but it certainly doesn't hurt and provides that extra fraction of low level moisture before hitting the mountains.

We've picked up a weenie dusting this evening from the persistent flurry that continues. Huge dendrites that fall and measure 0.1-0.2" by themselves but it's not a complete covering of the measuring surface by them, so it's a trace.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Yeah I think there's a good chance of more nickel and dime stuff like tomorrow and then into Friday morning.

FROPA dropping south with Lake Champlain warm to moisten the low levels and then orographic lift...I really don't think the lake does too much but it certainly doesn't hurt and provides that extra fraction of low level moisture before hitting the mountains.

We've picked up a weenie dusting this evening from the persistent flurry that continues. Huge dendrites that fall and measure 0.1-0.2" by themselves but it's not a complete covering of the measuring surface by them, so it's a trace.

Yeah even we have seen some weenie flakes out this way. Wouldn't be surprised if we wake up Friday morning with a surprise inch or 2 when not many call for it. A few of my collegues here at LSC really think this could deliver (relatively speaking).

I like a D-1" below 750ft, 1-2" 750ft-1,500ft, 2-3" 1,500ft-2,000ft, 3-4" above 2k right now based on trends and LL moisture. Very elevation dependent. Could change though...I'm forecasting for VTrans tomorrow so my forecast includes Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night, and Thursday so I'll def be looking at a lot of guidance tomorrow.

[Nittany88]

Yeah even we have seen some weenie flakes out this way. Wouldn't be surprised if we wake up Friday morning with a surprise inch or 2 when not many call for it. A few of my collegues here at LSC really think this could deliver (relatively speaking).

I like a D-1" below 750ft, 1-2" 750ft-1,500ft, 2-3" 1,500ft-2,000ft, 3-4" above 2k right now based on trends and LL moisture. Very elevation dependent. Could change though...I'm forecasting for VTrans tomorrow so my forecast includes Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night, and Thursday so I'll def be looking at a lot of guidance tomorrow.

Not really a surprise when its been in the forecast!

From last night's:

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN

CANADA WILL USHER IN A COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO

THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL LIKELY

REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER...IT APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY POTENT

SURFACE COLD FRONT (925 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 10C)

WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A

PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY

FALLING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT..

And this afternoon's:

AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN YORK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. THUS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEFLY HEAVIER BURSTS

OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHICH MAY

PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR

TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN

VERMONT.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY

NIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS

RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER

TYPE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA

THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN UPPER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE

BORDER...BUT A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE

FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO

NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING WITH SOME LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES

POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE TEENS

WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Not really a surprise when its been in the forecast!

From last night's:

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN

CANADA WILL USHER IN A COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO

THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL LIKELY

REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER...IT APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY POTENT

SURFACE COLD FRONT (925 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 10C)

WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A

PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY

FALLING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT..

And this afternoon's:

AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN YORK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. THUS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEFLY HEAVIER BURSTS

OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHICH MAY

PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR

TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN

VERMONT.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY

NIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS

RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER

TYPE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA

THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN UPPER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE

BORDER...BUT A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE

FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO

NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING WITH SOME LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES

POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE TEENS

WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

Haha no kidding! Hadn't read any AFD's lately too busy with other things lol good stuff.

Meant more toward media not NWS. NWS is a whole different level of conveying messages to the public. BTV is very good.

[N. OF PIKE]

Left stowe tonite, just got back, had flakes flying down to exit 4 (randolph,vt). I really love the wintry wx and the way it just likes to snow in vt. It must snow 10x a winter when none is forecast in the green mtn state. Enjoy the squalls wed pm and thur in the n greens, should be 4-8 on mansfield by fri am. It was snowing steadily till 430pm there today. Now nack to sne where winter wx is more of a treat instead of a daily/weekly occurence

[MaineJayhawk]

(Very) light snow falling as I left my sprawling estate this morning. A dusting in accumulation so far. Snow snakes slithering across the roadways.

[adk]

I'll second what's been batted about here. As I've said for a few days now, the weak system tonight and the front dropping through on friday am will bring classic "nickel and dime" snows to Mansfield and Nor. VT. D-2 across the valleys verifies to 3-4 at elevation for each event. By the time friday evening rolls around we're looking at 6-8 new inches of snow above 2500/3000 ft and I'm finding some chest shots....

Though as is also classic, Sunday looks meh. Warming trend, southwest flow, not sunny....

[borderwx]

9F, you could hear a bird fart its so calm. first single digits of the season here.

sounds like Thurs night will be a nice riding with your grooming buddies PF, wild and white.

be interesting to see how the natural snow on the N/NNE faces make it through the warm up, sun angle is getting pretty piss poor this time of year.

edit: time for a new thermo. only 13F.

[dryslot]

(Very) light snow falling as I left my sprawling estate this morning. A dusting in accumulation so far. Snow snakes slithering across the roadways.

Yes, Same here as ans inverted trough that was modeled to form looks like it has albeit weak

[ORH_wxman]

Pretty awesome windex signal for N VT/N NH for tomorrow night. Deep moisture from 700mb right to the sfc, huge LI spike, and solid (not amazing) lapse rates. The latter is the weakest element of this setup, but this should be sufficient for good squalls anyway.

[OceanStWx]

Pretty awesome windex signal for N VT/N NH for tomorrow night. Deep moisture from 700mb right to the sfc, huge LI spike, and solid (not amazing) lapse rates. The latter is the weakest element of this setup, but this should be sufficient for good squalls anyway.

0-2 km theta-e lapse rates never quite go negative on guidance, but bufkit sounding at least put isentropes near vertical at BML tomorrow night around 00z. Like you said, should be sufficient for some good squalls.

[powderfreak]

Pretty awesome windex signal for N VT/N NH for tomorrow night. Deep moisture from 700mb right to the sfc, huge LI spike, and solid (not amazing) lapse rates. The latter is the weakest element of this setup, but this should be sufficient for good squalls anyway.

Thanks, Will. Hopefully we can get a little more fluff down before we torch it away, lol.

Anyway, Weir Lundstedt mentioned this to me in passing on the slopes yesterday that he felt there's going to be a sneaky WINDEX event...and I figure if the guy that wrote the paper and developed the term WINDEX is dropping hints, then there's at least some positives in the model guidance.

I honestly haven't looked at it much in the last 24 hours as I've been more looking at the warmth next week to see what type of damage control we can do. Its sort of a weird way to look at the weather, but "negatives" like warmth and rain require more attention than "positives" like snow and cold do in the ski business. It snows more than its supposed to, no one cares because that's excellent... we lose a lot more snow or get more rain than I've told folks and that's bad.

[ORH_wxman]

0-2 km theta-e lapse rates never quite go negative on guidance, but bufkit sounding at least put isentropes near vertical at BML tomorrow night around 00z. Like you said, should be sufficient for some good squalls.

That good shot of lift should help make up for less than spectacular lapse rates. It looks like the lift is best the further NW you are. BTV region could do well. Or far northern Maine.

[OceanStWx]

That good shot of lift should help make up for less than spectacular lapse rates. It looks like the lift is best the further NW you are. BTV region could do well. Or far northern Maine.

The bufkit time-height sections show this well. BTV has a sharper front, and deeper lift. By the time it reaches GYX it is no longer generating any omega or precip on the NAM.

[powderfreak]

The bufkit time-height sections show this well. BTV has a sharper front, and deeper lift. By the time it reaches GYX it is no longer generating any omega or precip on the NAM.

Its at the end of the BTV WRF (48 hours) but the 12hr precip ending 6z FRI is fairly impressive for your NW slope areas along the northern slope of the Presidentials/Whites.

That's a solid burst for 12-hour QPF... of course its likely over-done, but even if you take 30-50% off, with good ratios as these events tend to have, could be some advisory level snowfall across certain areas. I noticed the 6z GFS also has that entire northern tier in >0.1" QPF. Of course that's smoothed some, so factor in some terrain enhancement and less in valleys and I think BTV has the right idea with already putting "light snow accumulations" in the ZFP.

[OceanStWx]

Its at the end of the BTV WRF (48 hours) but the 12hr precip ending 6z FRI is fairly impressive for your NW slope areas along the northern slope of the Presidentials/Whites.

That's a solid burst for 12-hour QPF... of course its likely over-done, but even if you take 30-50% off, with good ratios as these events tend to have, could be some advisory level snowfall across certain areas. I noticed the 6z GFS also has that entire northern tier in >0.1" QPF. Of course that's smoothed some, so factor in some terrain enhancement and less in valleys and I think BTV has the right idea with already putting "light snow accumulations" in the ZFP.

The SREF snowfall products are pretty bullish too, placing greater than 60% probs for 4+ inches around 06z Friday and a 12 hr mean snowfall of around 3.5" for northern Coos.

[dryslot]

Western Maine mtns should see some action with this as we downslope to death here

[N. OF PIKE]

looks like wildcat and bretton woods wil get hit nicely thur overnite . mt washington will get cat 3 gusts and prob a foot of powder. seriously lol

[ctsnowstorm628]

Went 0.75-1.25" tonight into tomorrow for VTrans in MVL, MPV, 1v4 above 1,000ft.

Thursday night looks to be slightly more significant...maybe 1-3".

12z RPM has a solid 2-4" total accumulation for northern VT with 4-6" for jay peak by Friday morning.

[OceanStWx]

Went 0.75-1.25" tonight into tomorrow for VTrans in MVL, MPV, 1v4 above 1,000ft.

Thursday night looks to be slightly more significant...maybe 1-3".

12z RPM has a solid 2-4" total accumulation for northern VT with 4-6" for jay peak by Friday morning.

My prelim snow grids look about the same. 3-4" generally above 2000 ft, locally higher near MWN, and 1-2" in the lower elevations.

[mreaves]

Went 0.75-1.25" tonight into tomorrow for VTrans in MVL, MPV, 1v4 above 1,000ft.

Thursday night looks to be slightly more significant...maybe 1-3".

12z RPM has a solid 2-4" total accumulation for northern VT with 4-6" for jay peak by Friday morning.

It will be nice to have things whitened up some more. I am beginning to get a snow iferiority complex from looking at all the pics and reports from CT.

[weatherMA]

SREF's are bullish as mentioned. 15z should be coming out soon. Here's 9z....maybe I can even coat the ground in Plymouth?

[powderfreak]

Went 0.75-1.25" tonight into tomorrow for VTrans in MVL, MPV, 1v4 above 1,000ft.

Thursday night looks to be slightly more significant...maybe 1-3".

12z RPM has a solid 2-4" total accumulation for northern VT with 4-6" for jay peak by Friday morning.

Yeah I like a D-2" (probably more like 1-2") in the valleys of northern VT east of the Spine, and locally up to 6" in the favored spots from Jay Peak to Belvidere to Mansfield.

A lot of the meso-scale models on the PSU E-Wall site are showing as much as 0.4-0.5" QPF in extreme N.NH and then also near Jay Peak.

[powderfreak]

It will be nice to have things whitened up some more. I am beginning to get a snow iferiority complex from looking at all the pics and reports from CT.

Yeah I left my little "Mountain Road in Stowe" bubble yesterday and went to get something from my sister in BTV... and by the time I hit 89 at Waterbury there was really no snow. And certainly nothing left on the drive to BTV.

I've still got a consistent cover looking out the window but today's 34-35F temps are now causing the tops of grass blades to start to poke through again. Grass has been covered since the Sun/Mon AM snow, so its been feeling wintery.

But even a mile or two away in the RT 100 corridor its just scattered white like this webcam shows:

The dog has been enjoying the fluff... although of course since she's a lab she has to drag my shoes all over the yard.

[ctsnowstorm628]

It will be nice to have things whitened up some more. I am beginning to get a snow iferiority complex from looking at all the pics and reports from CT.

How do you think I feel!?