CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 SREFs really boosted 1" probs which isn't a surprise. Some 4" probs showing up more in wrn MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 The NAM looks way colder and has a better precip shield, yes? As compared to what. Looks pretty warm at 850mb all te way back to ORH. Points W are below 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Why is anyone using NAM for anything except wiping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 As compared to what. Looks pretty warm at 850mb all te way back to ORH. Points W are below 0C. 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Boy the last thing NJ needs is blizzard conditions, NAM is brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 12z That would be an affirmative than. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm a little surprised that the NAM is warmer than the GFS. Usually it is the other way around during early season stuff. Kind of a head scratcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM has an almost snow sounding at BOS at 30 hours...though the extreme lowest level is warm...but flakes in the air probably just off the water back toward Jerry. Goes to rain at 33 hours. ORH is snow through 33 hours and then a sleet/ZR sounding by 36h on the NAM. It cooled off from 12z. Still the warmest model of any in the mid-levels though despite this. I think it will keep cooling off and match the Euro by either 00z or 06z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM has an almost snow sounding at BOS at 30 hours...though the extreme lowest level is warm...but flakes in the air probably just off the water back toward Jerry. Goes to rain at 33 hours. ORH is snow through 33 hours and then a sleet/ZR sounding by 36h on the NAM. It cooled off from 12z. Still the warmest model of any in the mid-levels though despite this. I think it will keep cooling off and match the Euro by either 00z or 06z tonight. Yeah it's tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 PRECIP distribution seems much more typical. Like we talked about before 12 z came out, later phase, later occlusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 Boy the last thing NJ needs is blizzard conditions, NAM is brutal LOL, Crazy run right there for NJ/NY. Storm dumps on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 LOL, Crazy run right there for NJ/NY. Storm dumps on them. The DE valley area into NJ will probably be the winners for sure. But, it should be wintry around a good chunk of the area tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yeah it's tossed It almost does not make sense. I don't know why it seems so warm aloft. By default it almost has to cool, but part of the reason seems to be the NAM having problems wetbulbing until its too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The DE valley area into NJ will probably be the winners for sure. But, it should be wintry around a good chunk of the area tomorrow. That's a cliff jumper of a run for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Clown maps are going to be ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 It almost does not make sense. I don't know why it seems so warm aloft. By default it almost has to cool, but part of the reason seems to be the NAM having problems wetbulbing until its too late. The gradient is ridiculous with it. Has like 0.25" in W. MA and 2" tickling BID. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 meanwhile upton goes all rain for here with High wind warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It almost does not make sense. I don't know why it seems so warm aloft. By default it almost has to cool, but part of the reason seems to be the NAM having problems wetbulbing until its too late. If the MLs do end up being colder, the precip looks like it gives a decent amount of love on this run. Lots of .5+ QPF in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 this thing is a micro-cane on the hi-res stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Clown maps are going to be ridiculous lol I just don't know about that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 QPF looks kind of impressive on the NAM, but there's no reason to think its correct. I'm not getting over 0.70" of qpf in ORH. It has lots of bad solutions, and this is probably one of them. Too warm aloft and too wet. Consensus between OP Euro and GEFS was pretty solid in our area. Tough to beat that combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The gradient is ridiculous with it. Has like 0.25" in W. MA and 2" tickling BID. I like the trend--the 12z had zilch up here IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Nam is torching at 850mb +4 not going to cut it for any frozen here, But its the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 lol...pretty cool: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 If the MLs do end up being colder, the precip looks like it gives a decent amount of love on this run. Lots of .5+ QPF in CT I feel pretty good about western MA and CT. The thing that concerns me, is a QPF min in central areas as this thing occludes and becomes almost a two part deal. However, most areas seem like a 1-3" I would guess. Maybe the potential for double out west in spots. I feel like nrn ORH could pull a 2-5, but it's not easy trying to pin point any mesoscale features. I also think a coastal front may enhance snow, or precip...especially if the euro is right. The euro in general does argue for more snow if the thermal profile is right. I mean, it's hard not to get at least 3-6" with a track like that..even if you dryslot. The issue becomes two things. Is the euro correct in the thermal profile, and will this thing becomes ripped to shreds with it occluding so far south. I think the latter is a reason to hedge conservatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Hi-Res NAM on SV goes crazy for a lot of interior NW CT...overdone, but shows the wetbulbing that will occur once precip begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 lol...pretty cool: Nice. I see 36kts sustained for TAN. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Lol @BigJoeBastardi: If correct, 18z nam run, which has again shifted west is a disaster. 1-2 million people will have power knocked out by snow, coast raked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Hi-Res NAM on SV goes crazy for a lot of interior NW CT...overdone, but shows the wetbulbing that will occur once precip begins. I kinda wish I was home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Lol @BigJoeBastardi: If correct, 18z nam run, which has again shifted west is a disaster. 1-2 million people will have power knocked out by snow, coast raked JB is likely humping the NAM now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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