weatherMA Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I have a feeling they issue a WWA with this if the 18z nam and gfs are close to the EC...even if its only 1-3", 2-4", it starts during the evening commute and being the first snowfall of the season, they don't always follow the 3" criteria. Feel good about 2-3" up here but no advisory as 4" is the criteria and it will be following mostly 9pm-3am when not much traveling happens anyway even if the roads did have problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like the NW hills of CT and Mass could definitely pick up 2-4" with maybe a 5" amount...maybe 1-3" for ORH/TOL? this has nowcast written all over regarding snow totals and where the banding sets up and or pivots (wma?) we have models at least showing a storm of decent intensity throwing some precip back and cold enough air outside immediate coast and islands but we can't lock down amount with much confidence. i think pete will score 3+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I have a feeling they issue a WWA with this if the 18z nam and gfs are close to the EC...even if its only 1-3", 2-4", it starts during the evening commute and being the first snowfall of the season, they don't always follow the 3" criteria. Feel good about 2-3" up here but no advisory as 4" is the criteria and it will be following mostly 9pm-3am when not much traveling happens anyway even if the roads did have problems. Watch for shadowing up there. You'd be amazed at the effects it has. When forecasting for LSC, I usually take model QPF output and multiply it by like 0.7 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I had a feeling it would trend somewhat colder with this polar very dry airmass in place, but I'm still a bit surprised just how cold the BL has trended over the interior. That will definitely help accumulate some snow even if the rates aren't that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 this has nowcast written all over regarding snow totals and where the banding sets up and or pivots (wma?) we have models at least showing a storm of decent intensity throwing some precip back and cold enough air outside immediate coast and islands but we can't lock down amount with much confidence. i think pete will score 3+ I agree. Somewhere above 1,000ft in the Berks will probably see maybe 3-4". From SV, it looks like max QPF in the Berks is like 0.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like we get to break in _________________'s term with a nice little snowstorm. Sweet ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Watch for shadowing up there. You'd be amazed at the effects it has. When forecasting for LSC, I usually take model QPF output and multiply it by like 0.7 haha Yeah. EURO and gfs both give .3" or just under so maybe 1-2" is a more reasonable call. NAM gives me nothing. It seems like it should stay all snow though so at least that won't be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I had a feeling it would trend somewhat colder with this polar very dry airmass in place, but I'm still a bit surprised just how cold the BL has trended over the interior. That will definitely help accumulate some snow even if the rates aren't that great. i was surprised to see the surface temps modeled so cold. a lot of times in these shoulder season events you'll see guidance spitting out like 2 to 3C and just have to account for a warm bias and expect something more like 0 to 1.5C....in this case i'm seeing some <32F readings. impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The weenie maps still say MPM is best area for frontogenesis as dryslot tries to work in from ORH-BDL and SE. The area of higher QPF in ern areas may be due to low level frontogenesis, but temps here may not be conducive. There is a warmer layer aloft as it seems like critical thicknesses are far NW of the 0C 850 line. I like reading that, but I think it's more likely that the buld of qpf falls southeast of here. If we can get southern VT in the mix, I'll be more comfortable as I'm only 8 miles from the border. I give up. Where is MPM? Only MPMs I could find were Main Pass, Louisiana and some place in Mozambique. LOL--GC is close to Mozambique. MPM is me "Moneypit Mike" up in NW Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yeah. EURO and gfs both give .3" or just under so maybe 1-2" is a more reasonable call. NAM gives me nothing. It seems like it should stay all snow though so at least that won't be a problem. Yeah SV Euro QPF gives you guys about 0.25" and yeah it'll be all snow. Very possible you see your first inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I like reading that, but I think it's more likely that the buld of qpf falls southeast of here. If we can get southern VT in the mix, I'll be more comfortable as I'm only 8 miles from the border. LOL--GC is close to Mozambique. MPM is me "Moneypit Mike" up in NW Mass. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 i was surprised to see the surface temps modeled so cold. a lot of times in these shoulder season events you'll see guidance spitting out like 2 to 3C and just have to account for a warm bias and expect something more like 0 to 1.5C....in this case i'm seeing some <32F readings. impressive. It won't surprise me to see some 28-29F readings tomorrow night in the elevated spots. The trend in how cold the airmass is has made me more confident that there will be some accumulation. If you recall even in October 2009...the first event (10/15-16), the airmass was chilly with -4 850 temps and cold down to 950mb. We got under freezing in that one here despite fairly light precip rates and that was 3 weeks earlier than this current event. It will be at night too for a little extra boost. With the cold we have today/tonight/tomorrow...it should start sticking pretty quickly in the hills. Assuming we avoid a NAM solution with like 0.10" of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I like reading that, but I think it's more likely that the buld of qpf falls southeast of here. If we can get southern VT in the mix, I'll be more comfortable as I'm only 8 miles from the border. I think Bennington county VT will be on the edge of appreciable QPF. You'll be fine in the northern Berks though..probably 0.3" per Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 ORH 2" MPM 3" Springfield 1" BOS T Kevin 0.5" Ray 1" First guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The temps drops to below -4C at 925 in central areas too. Definitely wetbulbing helping sustain the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 ORH 2" MPM 3" Springfield 1" BOS T Kevin 0.5" Ray 1" First guess I'd put Hubb and ORH to 3", drop me to 2", raise Keving to 2". But, what the hell do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 i think the jackpot somwhere in SNE will see 6-8 inches. this is a respectable storm with good cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 i think the jackpot somwhere in SNE will see 6-8 inches. this is a respectable storm with good cold air Pete??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 i think the jackpot somwhere in SNE will see 6-8 inches. this is a respectable storm with good cold air I think that's gonna be really difficult to do. There is appreciable cold air, but it doesn't correlate perfectly with where max QPF will be. Looking at 12z data, I think the jackpot of maybe 4-6" will be in the southern Berks above 1000' somewhere...on average 0.5-0.6" QPF mainly, if not all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 All I want is a flake and it looks like I have a decent chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 All I want is a flake and it looks like I have a decent chance. Yup. Rooting for ya! Novie snow is good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like the NW hills of CT and Mass could definitely pick up 2-4" with maybe a 5" amount...maybe 1-3" for ORH/TOL? no youre wrong, 6" for UConn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 no youre wrong, 6" for UConn Eff it, 12". But seriously, I'm rooting for you guys. I got my SN+ last night, so I'm set for a little while lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 All I want is a flake and it looks like I have a decent chance. Ditto, down here. Can't lose sight of climo. A little winter a few weeks early, including the latest cold spell, is a nice bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Pete??? 12"+ on top of solid 18" currently on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm going T for here. T meaning Toaster. If somehow winds stay northerly then I may see some snow, but I think we may have a bit too much easterly component. I think when winds to back northerly we lose the better lift. Maybe I can get a wet snow at 35f. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM looks slightly east so far...not sure it matters since that precip shield is so consolidated anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Tides right now are running 1/2 to 3/4 ft above predicted levels from NL east as seen on tidesonline.com. Extratropical surge values are 3-5 feet from NL east to NJ. Wave predictions for open ocean are 10ft near shore with 15-20 offshore. A long duration fetch over more than 1 high tide cycle could contribute to piling. Damaged dune areas and broken sea wall areas are most at risk. Low astronomical high tides and reduced current speed are inhibitors to moderate flooding. With the coast scoured out in places, effects of high water and surf could possibly be different from normally observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The NAM looks way colder and has a better precip shield, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The NAM looks way colder and has a better precip shield, yes? +3 850 is just SE of BOS at 33... so you will have to go into the interior probably some to see snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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