CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's all about getting that lift. The GFS wasn't too far off from 06z, but the difference was a more organized area of lift. Some of this may be tied to how the GFS intensifies and any convective issues...not necessarily feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yeah GFS says a little snow away from the coast. But it's much better with the banding out in western NE. yeah, looks like Jerry will see his flakes on the GFS for 1-3 hrs before the change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS more organized with a good band out in GC like we spoke about. Decent in central MA too. At least with the mid levels the GFS, NAM and 00z Euro would support that type of band that weakens as it heads north towards me. I kind of like how the GFS depicts the QPF as a result: enhancement along the foothills then petering out with time as dynamics weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's all about getting that lift. The GFS wasn't too far off from 06z, but the difference was a more organized area of lift. Some of this may be tied to how the GFS intensifies and any convective issues...not necessarily feedback. you think 1-2" then a changeover to rain is safe for here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 How are the winds along the coast per the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Congrats pete, MPM as well Yeah been feeling that axis for a couple days now... NJ up through E.NY, western New England (GC), Monadnocks/C.NH into your neck of the woods in western Maine. Climo favored area for banding, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 yeah, looks like Jerry will see his flakes on the GFS for 1-3 hrs before the change to rain. I'm still not sold on more than catpaws near me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Like I said . I am happy with 1-3 inches. That's what I've been planning on for days. If its more than that great. But no need to go crazier than that unless Euro looks beefier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 you think 1-2" then a changeover to rain is safe for here? Youd stay frozen entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 At least with the mid levels the GFS, NAM and 00z Euro would support that type of band that weakens as it heads north towards me. I kind of like how the GFS depicts the QPF as a result: enhancement along the foothills then petering out with time as dynamics weaken. That main band pivoting up may be the main show of snow for many, especially in central or ern areas. I guess we might be able to gets spokes of showery precip or even some shallow lift in the colder air to continue some snow in those areas that lose the bigger mid level lift? At that point it turns to a glaze issue like Will said. I'm seeing this as a nowcast issue with this being disorganized. You'll have some yelling bust while others may end up pretty happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Youd stay frozen entire event I'm at school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 you think 1-2" then a changeover to rain is safe for here? In NW CT? You may not get above freezing until Thursday. It's possible you may see double that amount and then a glaze, but I don't think it's a good idea to be terribly bullish for snow considering it's probably going to be a nowcast deal as well as not seeing the euro yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm at school I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That main band pivoting up may be the main show of snow for many, especially in central or ern areas. I guess we might be able to gets spokes of showery precip or even some shallow lift in the colder air to continue some snow in those areas that lose the bigger mid level lift? At that point it turns to a glaze issue like Will said. I'm seeing this as a nowcast issue with this being disorganized. You'll have some yelling bust while others may end up pretty happy. These situations where ptype is at least partially precip intensity dependent are a spectacular pain to try and convey through the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 RGEM Canada with a congrats to all (except R.I., and Boston), especially Central N.J. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 Hell, even areas around Brockton, verbatim on the GFS, look like snow. Warmest level is ~975mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This winter will suck for me as far as keeping snow totals back in Brooklyn. I know my wife won't be out there measuring and clearing the board. I could give a crap about how much snow I get in Rockland county, NY during the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Hell, even areas around Brockton, verbatim on the GFS, look like snow. Warmest level is ~975mb. yeah, was just looking at that on the twister site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 1-2" here or so it seems through today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Fetch from Nova Scotia, sustained 60 plus near the center. Wave making machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's a decent hit for MPM actually. A model war begins--fun when it's 24 hours away. RGEM Looks NAMesque with the qpf cutoff, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Fetch from Nova Scotia, sustained 60 plus near the center. Wave making machine. 200 houses on the shore in my town are uninhabitable and folks are working their tails off to make repairs. Now this. Not optimal, I believe is the saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 CMC is west. No details. However its the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 200 houses on the shore in my town are uninhabitable and folks are working their tales off to make repairs. Now this. Not optimal, I believe is the saying. Yea damaged infrastructure much more prone to damage than normal. This would be a scattered outage normally with some over wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That RGEM that Supermanmeh posted is a nice hit. That model has done well in the past from what I remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That is cold at ORH. With a layer of good WAA aloft and a shallow but potent cold layer under a strong ENE LLJ, places like the ORH hills may generate that 1SM vis convection sugar snow for a time too. Even is you only have 1-2" of snow(just saying as an example), you would possibly have that wind blown crap with a 29F temp. Pretty nasty. Add ZL on top of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That RGEM that Supermanmeh posted is a nice hit. That model has done well in the past from what I remember Usually runs too warm but you would hit this anyday http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Usually runs too warm but you would hit this anyday http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Yeah that's frontal and backal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Canadian global looks like a good hit for NW CT and Berks, but very hard to tell on those black and white graphics. It's pretty far west so it drags in a little more warmer air aloft, but it has a decent slug of moisture in CT. The regional really has a strong band moving in as the precip approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 RGEM Lets lock it in now......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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