Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Not with surface temps in the low to mids 30s it's not. NAM is a cold rain for just about everyone. I think sleet is ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Not with surface temps in the low to mids 30s it's not. NAM is a cold rain for just about everyone. No, see Wills post. It's a big icestorm interior hills . Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAm is really having trouble getting precip into central areas with it stalled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 No, see Wills post. It's a big icestorm interior hills . Yikes LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 Good grief...the NAM is pretty warm at 850 but it has a huge icing sounding at ORH from 36-45 hours. We're talking like -3C to -4C at 950mb. But with what precip? There is little to no precip W of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 No, see Wills post. It's a big icestorm interior hills . Yikes .25 qpf for your fanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Good grief...the NAM is pretty warm at 850 but it has a huge icing sounding at ORH from 36-45 hours. We're talking like -3C to -4C at 950mb. Too bad there's not much qpf to go along with those soundings. GC is bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM has a nice arc of precip that would probably wetbub to snow, but just craps the bed as it gets removed from the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Lots of cirrus smoking depicted for our Northern Brethren. Bad news for the coast as constant fetch over ocean pushing seas east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 But with what precip? There is little to no precip W of ORH. Yeah its not a lot of precip...a couple tenths..but that is glaze city with that. Even a tenth of precip with that sounding would be nasty. Doesn't take much ice to make it dangerous. But regardless, this is the NAM. The other guidance has been more supportive of a light snow in the interior rather than ice. But it wouldn't shock me if we had some issues with light freezing rain or freezing drizzle if we don't get good lift in here. The low level cold drain is pretty impressive ofr Nov 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well onto the GFS. NAM stalls this too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Everyone in SNE gets screwed one way or the other on this run of the NAM. Kind of comical--except for coastal folks where impacts there can be harmful on the heels of last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Ugh. Here we already with folks and their qpf fetish. With the low there the precip shield will be we'll NW of where NAM has it. Meteorology not not modelology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 What a toaster bath on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yeah its not a lot of precip...a couple tenths..but that is glaze city with that. Even a tenth of precip with that sounding would be nasty. Doesn't take much ice to make it dangerous. But regardless, this is the NAM. The other guidance has been more supportive of a light snow in the interior rather than ice. But it wouldn't shock me if we had some issues with light freezing rain or freezing drizzle if we don't get good lift in here. The low level cold drain is pretty impressive ofr Nov 7th. No doubt. The issue I see with this is the mid-levels may torch if this occludes too far S as depicted. I would not sway from 1-2" for the interior W of I-495 with the potential for a period of Sleet/icing turning to -ra/drizzle. I just don't see a huge icing issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Ugh. Here we already with folks and their qpf fetish. With the low there the precip shield will be we'll NW of where NAM has it. Meteorology not not modelology It's the NAM track. Instead of slowing and crawling NE or ENE, it sinks back SE. That prevents that lobe of moisture I talked about moving NW. Is it right...not sure...but I question it enough to see how the other guidance looks. The NAM certainly isn't enough to sway me unless all guidance has this. SFEFs weren't very wet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 What a toaster bath on the Nam Not for all--for some it's just dry toast instead of a bath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Ugh. Here we already with folks and their qpf fetish. With the low there the precip shield will be we'll NW of where NAM has it. Meteorology not not modelology Seriously? Just this morning you have gone from 3" to 6" to a big ice storm. You're trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That's just funny to have a wall of moisture completely crap the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Surge values have come back up to 3-5 feet from Montauk on West. Occlusion sometimes has isolated pockets of intense precip, could be some surprise dynamically induced spots of good snow. My thoughts are this is trending back deeper and further west. Best snows on front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Seriously? Just this morning you have gone from 3" to 6" to a big ice storm. You're trolling. Kevin troll? Nahhhhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 If we have very weka lift and that type of saturated sounding mostly below 700mb along with 950mb temps of -4C, that would definitely create light icing as a bigger concern for elevated areas vs an inch or two of snow. However, with the Euro so cold, I would hold off on the light glaze scenario for now. But its definitely something that could happen. The right ingredients are in place for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 No doubt. The issue I see with this is the mid-levels may torch if this occludes too far S as depicted. I would not sway from 1-2" for the interior W of I-495 with the potential for a period of Sleet/icing turning to -ra/drizzle. I just don't see a huge icing issue. I don't either, outside of the usual suspects like the Monadnocks. Right where that low level cold air maximizes around 1500-2000 feet I could see a nice elevation icing, but not below that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM is a big toaster bath for those of us in interior New England. Northern edge of the deformation band gets to about the CT/MA border and halts for a long time. While it does eventually pivot back NW into GC for a bit, it is a dying band with little precipitation left in it as the low occludes. Hopefully the 12Z GFS will bear some more fruit, but last night's Euro was not good either. The 06Z GFS wasn't bad and did give this area some precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 How this is evolving model wise has a very familiar ring to it. West east west, north south north,intense, meh intense. Just looking at a Messenger WV loop, bombing process might be further North and slower. Guessing 12Z models picking up on that now. Congrats Pete, Will Hunchie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This system is almost like a microcane on some of these solutions. Really compact circulation...which keeps the good dynamics pretty close to the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 How this is evolving model wise has a very familiar ring to it. West east west, north south north,intense, meh intense. Just looking at a Messenger WV loop, bombing process might be further North and slower. Guessing 12Z models picking up on that now. Congrats Pete, Will Hunchie. Yeah Steve, Looking at WV its over Virginia right now nam had it well to the south of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 the occluded system is going to have ugly dryslotting. i wouldn't want to be in central ct shows up on the high res nest: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This system is almost like a microcane on some of these solutions. Really compact circulation...which keeps the good dynamics pretty close to the center. One thing that seems odd to me is the intense 850 inflow void of decent dynamics. I know occlusion and all ala boxing day but yesterdays and last nights runs concentrated the dynamics in the SW quad. With this mornings runs beginning to reorientated the precip, wonder if that evolution continues where we end up with a comma head well north of the actual center as is usually the case. Also a coastal front, pretty strong at that would provide lift, pretty large thermal contrast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well the GFS is rolling, may be a telling run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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