CT Rain Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro is colder. Temp profiles meteorology... not modelology please. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 If profiles end up that cold, accumulation will happen pretty quick...even with light precip. I'd like to see a big death band, but its just unlikely to happen in this setup. Should be a nice little event though...accumulating snow on Nov 7th is a bonus. Agreed. I think we'll be in one of those 3/4-1SM deals that just slowly sticks. Shouldn't have much of a problem in higher elevations but it will be a slow climb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 upton's going all rain with high wind warning, but out of the north....gusts to 45-50 very good news, thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 meteorology... not modelology please. Thanks. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Agreed. I think we'll be in one of those 3/4-1SM deals that just slowly sticks. Shouldn't have much of a problem in higher elevations but it will be a slow climb. But no models showed snow on Sunday ;lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Will, what is the ORH snowfall record for Nov 7 (or 8)? Nov 7th is 1.4"...solid shot at breaking it. Most of the snow should fall before midnight tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Nov 7th is 1.4"...solid shot at breaking it. Most of the snow should fall before midnight tomorrow. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 meteorology... not modelology please. Thanks. Touche...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 First snow event of the year so I'm happy with a slushy coating and that looks fairly certain here so win/win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 WWA's out in Jersey...I think 1-3" is reasonable up here. WHDH: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 But no models showed snow on Sunday ;lol: And Will and I talked about the two things to watch for. One, a later phase and a bombing closer to us. That didn't happen. But number 2 was a colder/drier antecedent air mass which did come to pass. Couple that with a more offshore track and we're in business for winter. That said the disjointed dynamics and a filling low south of Long Island make me hesitant to forecast much at all. Even in mid winter this scenario probably would be a disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This reminds me of a storm a few years ago when the upper levels were a disaster and it left us with terrible growth and a horrid storm. Everyone was gung ho on QPF maps ignoring the actual physics of the system. Will might remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 6-10 should do it near I-84. Yeah that should do it...maybe a touch more if some upslope gets going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This reminds me of a storm a few years ago when the upper levels were a disaster and it left us with terrible growth and a horrid storm. Everyone was gung ho on QPF maps ignoring the actual physics of the system. Will might remember. 2/10/10? One of my favorite busts of all-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Lol. I'll take that map and lock it up now ftw. WWA's out in Jersey...I think 1-3" is reasonable up here. WHDH: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Guess I should have looked first, my paltry QPF in. 85,nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Guess I should have looked first, my paltry QPF in. 85,nice You're such a troll. In many ways worse than Kevin too. At least he tries to be funny about his trolling. The issue is how mangled the dynamics look up this way as the storm fills to our south post-occlusion. It looks like an ugly, banded mess spread out over 18 hours. Not boring for some, I'm sure, but I think it has a disappointing look if people's expectations are an advisory level snow. If expectations are for flakes and some accumulation I think that's reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Love this that I pulled from Ryan's competitors at channel 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Other than one bald, geriatric person, I don't think anyone is expecting more than a few flakes to an inch or two Mr. H... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 6-10 should do it near I-84. I would think that 10-12" would be the total for elevation's of 1,000' or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think I would actually rather be at Chatham or someplace like that for this event, than in the winter woods of Hub'town for this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You're such a troll. In many ways worse than Kevin too. At least he tries to be funny about his trolling. The issue is how mangled the dynamics look up this way as the storm fills to our south post-occlusion. It looks like an ugly, banded mess spread out over 18 hours. Not boring for some, I'm sure, but I think it has a disappointing look if people's expectations are an advisory level snow. If expectations are for flakes and some accumulation I think that's reasonable. pot kettle black, it's fine when you troll though. I expect no snow but decent precip. Trend today has been for better dynamics, now cast situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 now cast situation. this, i think like scott has harped on , its all about where someone gets under a good band, and the duration. away from the immediate coast line i think everyone has a shot, hoping for some CF enhancement tommorrow 1/2 half of nite, i wouldn't be shocked if someone in SE pa or NJ grabs 10-12 inches in a localized max, this things will have quite a band down there for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Someone will be nude in the NJ area near the DE River. Partial nudity for MPM perhaps, like shawl half removed stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 pot kettle black, it's fine when you troll though. I expect no snow but decent precip. Trend today has been for better dynamics, now cast situation. I see you're on the szygy again. Not sure what you're referring and what your expectations are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 We will waste some qpf here trying to saturate this dry column dews are 12F Models factor that in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Models factor that in. I am sure they do, But the real point was how cold and dry the air mass is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I see you're on the szygy again. Not sure what you're referring and what your expectations are. I am expecting a band from Pete to Hubb to Maine lays down 3-6 while 1-2 from Will to Kev to Chris Ms parents, winds gusts to 40here 55 on the coast. 3-5 feet of surge, 10 ft waves at the coast, 15-20 offshore. If this continues to phase later on 0Z runs then higher QPF and higher winds. You? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I would think that 10-12" would be the total for elevation's of 1,000' or more. Don't go past 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS keeps C NH cold enough for snow until about 9z Thu morning. It rips about 1"/hr in S VT eastward to the Monadnocks for a few hours tomorrow evening in that band and weakens as it passes through the Lakes Region. We easily wetbulb into the U20s as the precip starts so it should have no trouble sticking. Snow growth should peak in the band and then it'll trail off to lousy ratios after that before the changeover to FZDZ/DZ. 1-3" sounds good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.