Baroclinic Zone Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 8:41 PM, CT Blizz said: Lol @BigJoeBastardi: If correct, 18z nam run, which has again shifted west is a disaster. 1-2 million people will have power knocked out by snow, coast raked Hey, finally a tweet that's accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 confused on the power outages--most trees have been stripped of their leaves at this point, plus last night's freeze is dropping alot of them today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I like the SPC WRF depiction. A nice front end band that will thump. It will let up and become a two parter...now the question is whether or not we see bands fills in during this time. They'll probably be a lot of crappy snowgrowth after this first initial band and in between any stronger bands that rotate up. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 HWW coastal CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 8:48 PM, Sultan said: HWW coastal CT We're all gonna die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 8:48 PM, CoastalWx said: We're all gonna die. some day, keeping my avatar was a good idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 what are your predictions for the GFS Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 8:38 PM, CoastalWx said: I feel pretty good about western MA and CT. The thing that concerns me, is a QPF min in central areas as this thing occludes and becomes almost a two part deal. However, most areas seem like a 1-3" I would guess. Maybe the potential for double out west in spots. I feel like nrn ORH could pull a 2-5, but it's not easy trying to pin point any mesoscale features. I also think a coastal front may enhance snow, or precip...especially if the euro is right. The euro in general does argue for more snow if the thermal profile is right. I mean, it's hard not to get at least 3-6" with a track like that..even if you dryslot. The issue becomes two things. Is the euro correct in the thermal profile, and will this thing becomes ripped to shreds with it occluding so far south. I think the latter is a reason to hedge conservatively. You and your qpf fetish....... This is a Mitch to Pete win. North of that will be tough to get the qpf for anything more than a couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 8:53 PM, ChrisM said: what are your predictions for the GFS Scott? asking for predictions for what a model will predict? Dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 8:57 PM, Sultan said: asking for predictions for what a model will predict? Dude didn't ask you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 8:58 PM, ChrisM said: didn't ask you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Forecast for Danbury from TWC LOL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 can't wait to watch reigning WOTY Twitter battle with TV weenie Matt Noyes over the 18Z NAM can a WOTY repeat ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Oh goodie, meteorological vomit is in the forecast: Wednesday A chance of rain, snow, and sleet before noon, then rain likely between noon and 2pm, then rain and snow likely after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Wednesday Night Rain showers, snow showers, and sleet before 10pm, then freezing rain and sleet between 10pm and 3am, then rain showers and sleet after 3am. Low around 29. Windy, with a north wind 24 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Thursday Rain showers and sleet likely, becoming all rain after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.825663095397196&lon=-72.38787329101564 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 8:53 PM, ChrisM said: what are your predictions for the GFS Scott? Well I can't envision any big changes from 12z. Models seem pretty much locked, it's going to come down to nowcast time with radar trends. Given how this may tend to become disorganized with time, I'm sure someone will get screwed and pissed off...but that's the nature of these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 8:56 PM, moneypitmike said: You and your qpf fetish....... This is a Mitch to Pete win. North of that will be tough to get the qpf for anything more than a couple. What? Enjoy your snow as you spend yet another tough day at work with coffee in hand, staring out at your barn. You'll do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:15 PM, CoastalWx said: What? Enjoy your snow as you spend yet another tough day at work with coffee in hand, staring out at your barn. You'll do fine. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Canadian regional really hits CT..especially wrn CT good it seems through early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 8:53 PM, ChrisM said: what are your predictions for the GFS Scott? On 11/6/2012 at 8:57 PM, Sultan said: asking for predictions for what a model will predict? Dude On 11/6/2012 at 8:59 PM, Sultan said: oh dear...it's not even winter yet...gonna be a long season of model watching if it's starting already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:15 PM, CoastalWx said: What? Enjoy your snow as you spend yet another tough day at work with coffee in hand, staring out at your barn. You'll do fine. In his finest Pashmina shawl and slippers no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:22 PM, thebigrombalski said: oh dear...it's not even winter yet...gonna be a long season of model watching if it's starting already it was all between model run bull****ting. I enjoy riling up Ginx, and asking stupid questions to see who bites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:15 PM, CoastalWx said: What? Enjoy your snow as you spend yet another tough day at work with coffee in hand, staring out at your barn. You'll do fine. So many posts about 1-2" of snow and pellets... Forky is right on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:23 PM, ChrisM said: It's it was all between model run bull****ting. I enjoy riling up Ginx, and asking stupid questions to see who bites. nope good try, you were serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Where da qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:26 PM, HubbDave said: :ROFL: So many posts about 1-2" of snow and pellets... Forky is right on this one... Run your snow blower tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:29 PM, Sultan said: Run your snow blower tonight I will try to set a new record for launching mice parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:26 PM, HubbDave said: So many posts about 1-2" of snow and pellets... Forky is right on this one... It really won't be that big of a deal here, but that's all many care about. It's the first snow, so people will be all excited. Meanwhile, Phil gets gusts past 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:23 PM, MaineJayhawk said: In his finest Pashmina shawl and slippers no less. On 11/6/2012 at 9:15 PM, CoastalWx said: What? Enjoy your snow as you spend yet another tough day at work with coffee in hand, staring out at your barn. You'll do fine. Probably relocate the 'office' so I can sit near the woodstove. All I'll need is a pipe. On 11/6/2012 at 9:26 PM, HubbDave said: So many posts about 1-2" of snow and pellets... Forky is right on this one... The first event brings out the best in people. On 11/6/2012 at 9:28 PM, HubbDave said: Where da qpf? LMAO--classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Geezus, I know you Mass guys are not effected and this thread is snowcentric but maps Phil posted show basically a hurricane offshore. Not good IMPACTS...MODERATE TO LOCALIZED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MINOR TO LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY MAJOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN PLACES DUE TO CHANGES TO UNDERWATER SLOPES AND/OR LOSS OF PROTECTIVE DUNES BOTH CAUSED BY SANDY. WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR BASEMENTS WILL HAMPER RECOVERY E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Fook, I am in the taint on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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