wisconsinwx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Changeover to snow on the back edge looks plausible. Not expecting much in the way of sticking but the cold air will be coming in pretty quickly and based on past experience in this type of setup, models are sometimes a bit too slow so we'll see. Yeah, one of our local models shows a changeover for about a half hour early Monday morning in much of S Wisconsin, so perhaps a trace can be recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 My forecast has a 100% chance of rain going to snow tomorrow night. I would expect mood flakes at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Yeah, one of our local models shows a changeover for about a half hour early Monday morning in much of S Wisconsin, so perhaps a trace can be recorded. A trace is recorded if any snowflakes fall at all....the goal I think will be to see if anyone can squeeze out anything measurable. Models dont look promising, but as said, sometimes they are slow in these setups. Its a short-lived but potent blast of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 11, 2012 Author Share Posted November 11, 2012 That is one nasty cold front in the plains. 72 as of 9pm in southwest IA and 15 in extreme southwest SD with SN in parts of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 12z NAM is particularly bullish with the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 12z NAM is particularly bullish with the changeover. Did you see the extracted data for LAF? I should've posted it here, forgot about this thread. Anyways, just hoping for a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Did you see the extracted data for LAF? I should've posted it here, forgot about this thread. Anyways, just hoping for a few flakes. Yeah, I wouldn't buy it verbatim but I think there's potential for something measurable. Will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 One for each map Kuchera and then 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 11, 2012 Author Share Posted November 11, 2012 Lol 1-3" here would be great but just expecting some flakes for awhile. Obs out west later tonight will help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Always enjoy FZRA reports with temps above freezing. Like now at Des Moines. SPECI KDSM 111727Z 31015KT 6SM -FZRA BR BKN007 OVC012 01/M02 A2983 RMK AO2 RAE24FZRAB24 P0002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 St Louis taking notice SOME EVIDENCE FROM 12Z MODEL RUNS OF PCPN HANGING BACK ENOUGH TO RESULT IN BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SN AND PL...AND ON THE MORE EXTREME SOLNS...SOME ACCUM. WILL ADDRESS THAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 lol at that map that has no accum in se mi....jokes aside, the 6z NAM was the first run to put snow at DTW (1 hour, 0.02" qpf) now 12z has 2 hours (0.07" qpf). Cold air will be rushing in like mad, so I think at least some flakes are now likely, with some very minor accum possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 2-4" of changeover snow and then lake effect/enhancement looking likely for my country and a few more with a wsw flow. still tho, what an awesome day today... soaking it in!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Bo, as far as regular posters go, you have moved to the sweet spot for wintry weather. I am a little jealous. Hope to see the reports and pics all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Bo, as far as regular posters go, you have moved to the sweet spot for wintry weather. I am a little jealous. Hope to see the reports and pics all winter. Oh definitely, i'll post a lot of pics and obs. I'm more than a little excited about Winter this year. To see how locals prepare is interesting. Town Christmas lights are up already so they don't have to do it in the snow,and all the fire hydrants now have a 4 ft red stake in the ground by them so they can be found when they get covered up by snow. Also they prohibit semi's and dump trucks on the county roads to prevent the roads from cracking/breaking up when the ground freezes over,which btw, makes April the most hated month here I've been told. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 11, 2012 Author Share Posted November 11, 2012 Yes please. Forecast sounding off the 18z NAM for ARR. Changeover occurs between 6-9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Front seems to be moving quicker than expected. Could mean the timing of changeover and end of precip are moved up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Front seems to be moving quicker than expected. Could mean the timing of changeover and end of precip are moved up. Yeah it is. Rockford wasn't supposed to cool down until 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Front seems to be moving quicker than expected. Could mean the timing of changeover and end of precip are moved up. Yeah the back edge of the precip is moving quicker as well, keeping ahead of the changeover line. The number of snow/mix reports have dwindled down the last few hours. Starting to think we may escape with no snow now. DVN mentioned this in the new disco as well... THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BEATING DOWN THE AND KEEPING THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND NARROW AND CLOSE TO THE FRONT. SO...WHILE THE COLD AIR WILL BE ENOUGH TO TURN WHATEVER PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER TO SNOW AS IT SWEEPS EAST THIS EVENING...THERE JUST WONT BE MUCH THERE. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION LOOKS PRETTY SMALL AND HAVE KEPT FORECAST TO DUSTING OR LESS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 11, 2012 Author Share Posted November 11, 2012 FWIW the HRRR is bullish with the snow as well like the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 11, 2012 Author Share Posted November 11, 2012 RAP has changeover occuring here right around 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Given the trends I would put the changeover time somewhere around 4-5 AM for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Given the trends I would put the changeover time somewhere around 4-5 AM for LAF. Reports out west look like the changeover to snow is rather short lived. Not that we were expecting anything of note, but it looks like a brief period of some flakes will be best case. 0z NAM looks more realistic than its prior kooky runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Video doesn't do it justice, but the flakes were very large. Hope this is a preview for you guys to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Video doesn't do it justice, but the flakes were very large. Hope this is a preview for you guys to the east. Beautiful. Commentary was a nice added bonus as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Video doesn't do it justice, but the flakes were very large. Hope this is a preview for you guys to the east. Nice fat flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Always enjoy FZRA reports with temps above freezing. Like now at Des Moines. SPECI KDSM 111727Z 31015KT 6SM -FZRA BR BKN007 OVC012 01/M02 A2983 RMK AO2 RAE24FZRAB24 P0002 I saw this post earlier and meant to comment then but forgot. The reason why the observer went with -FZRA even though the temperature was above freezing is because they were probably getting accretion on the surface. Another factor however could be that the temperature gauge might be running too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Snowing lightly here right now. 0.49" of rain, storm total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Snowing lightly here right now. 0.49" of rain, storm total. Was waiting to see if you would report some flakes in the air up there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Was waiting to see if you would report some flakes in the air up there.. Still snowing, but looks like it'll be over pretty soon. Alas, better to have seen flakes than not at all. Another T in the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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