Thundersnow12 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Time to see if I still got it. With both the 12z runs of the GFS/Euro/GFS ensembles and the GEM to an extent as well as myself being bored, I figured I'd go ahead and start this thread. Obviously it's still a week away but IMO the potential is there. I've been watching this one for a few days now as both the GFS and Euro have had runs of the first upper level system moving across the northern plains as the western trof/southen energy digs southward into the four corners region and aids in the development of a new sfc low across TX and then moving in northeastward with enough cold air on the northwest side for snow and lots of rain in the warm sector. It's quite the way that goes neutral tilt over then plains and then goes negative tlit as it crosses the mississippi river dropping a good amount of snow from MO-U.P of MI. For sh*ts and gigs, the 12z Euro had 6-18" from the KS/MO border the U.P of MI on Accu Pro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 And we're off. Nobody better IMO to start at winter storm thread as well. I'll most likely be watching this one from afar/no snow zone, but hopefully someone in the Midwest scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 LOT GUIDANCE TREND SUNDAY AND BEYOND IS TO HOLD BACK SOUTHERN PART OF UPPER TROUGH ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SUNDAY...THEN LIFT IT NORTHEAST IN A NEGATIVELY-TILTED FASHION MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN DEVELOPING A SECOND FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WOULD LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN IL SOMETIME MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON SPEED/TIMING BY THEN. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND KEEP COLDER AIR FROM REALLY PUSHING IN UNTIL LATER MONDAY. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS RUNS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING WET SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS IA/NORTHWEST IL/WI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SECOND LOW MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nice to see the potential of a decent system in Nov, especially considering what happened last winter... From Quad Cities "THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN A POST FRONTAL BAND. FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION THEN CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION POSSIBLY IN A NEGATIVE TILT FASHION. WHILE THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW AND WHEN THIS ENERGY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS FORCING WILL OVERLAP THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A MENTION OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN THE FORECAST...BASED ON THE CURRENT SETUP...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW THAT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY. TEMPERATURE MONDAY WILL NOT LIKELY EXCEED THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD 20S MONDAY NIGHT." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Hopefully this won't disappear off the radar. Phased systems last winter were a scarce commodity! Here's a few more maps from the Euro on the wintry side of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'll most likely be watching this one from afar/no snow zone, but hopefully someone in the Midwest scores. Ditto here. But building snowpack across the Plains/UMW can't be a bad thing for us down the road in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ditto here. But building snowpack across the Plains/UMW can't be a bad thing for us down the road in December. Yes, 100% agree. Really looks like that part of the US, plus western Canada, is going to feel the brunt of the cold/snow chances for the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I like the progressive pattern setting up on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 And we're off. Nobody better IMO to start at winter storm thread as well. I'll most likely be watching this one from afar/no snow zone, but hopefully someone in the Midwest scores. Nonsense. Still have a week to will this eastward. In all seriousness, pretty impressive to see every 12z GEFS member with something in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 too early for me...but hopefully we see a lot of this general storm type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Nonsense. Still have a week to will this eastward. In all seriousness, pretty impressive to see every 12z GEFS member with something in that timeframe. Well...it's true though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I like the prospects on the warm side of this system as well. Potential for a good squall line is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 0z Euro went back to it's previous idea of the nrn plains system being the dominate one. The GFS still has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 0z Euro went back to it's previous idea of the nrn plains system being the dominate one. The GFS still has it. Kind of strange to see just how different they are after somewhat similar evolutions/translations of the initial trough eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 0z EURO stills shows snow moving into subforum area on the 12th. Late the 11th also. Snow accumulation is shown all the way to Chicago on the next time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Trigger happy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yeah Chi storm, we should wait until 5 days prior this early in the season when it is less realistic to have a decent snowstorm. Then again it looked promising just yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Whether this turns into something or not for someone, if theres one thing Ive noticed over the last decade or so, it's that it wouldnt be November without a snowstorm hitting an area (usually the central/southern Plains) that averages much less snow than Detroit...before we see our first blanket of snow. By April, we will have obliterated them with season-total snowfall, snowcover, and all that sort of thing....but it is like clockwork and it seems to happen every winter. I used to have that attitude "its not fair, why should they get snow before us when we average more and are farther north", but Ive now accepted it as part of the normalcy of November. I cant say I dislike it, because in the end WINTER is what matters to me most (to this day my snowiest Nov was in the dreaded 1997-98 winter), its just that tease of wanting that first one and having to wait sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Whether this turns into something or not for someone, if theres one thing Ive noticed over the last decade or so, it's that it wouldnt be November without a snowstorm hitting an area (usually the central/southern Plains) that averages much less snow than Detroit...before we see our first blanket of snow. By April, we will have obliterated them with season-total snowfall, snowcover, and all that sort of thing....but it is like clockwork and it seems to happen every winter. I used to have that attitude "its not fair, why should they get snow before us when we average more and are farther north", but Ive now accepted it as part of the normalcy of November. I cant say I dislike it, because in the end WINTER is what matters to me most (to this day my snowiest Nov was in the dreaded 1997-98 winter), its just that tease of wanting that first one and having to wait sucks. Exactly the same here, it's a reality that comes with living on or near the western shore of one of the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yeah this one's starting to not look so good. Looks like just a band of rain/storms moving through with the front for most of us. Winter-wise it looks like a non-event at this point. I suppose it's still far enough out we could still see a surprise return to previous solutions, but I wouldn't bet on it. I'd be happy with just seeing the first flakes of the season myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 My thoughts: A strong storm system will move into the area this weekend. Very heavy snow will break out behind the system on Friday in areas north west of North Dakota, including parts of the state it self. Enough cold air may work in to drop a couple inches in all of the light blue area, especially in the darker blue. Heavy snow in dark blue, 6"+ www.midwestweather.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 ^Thats for a different event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 FWIW the new GEM looks like it's ready to deepen a pretty good secondary down in Arkansas at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I wouldn't totally give up on this one yet, signs from the GFS and its ensembles are bringing back the hope of a minor snow event (2-4 inches of back end snows for someone in the Great Lakes). In November, that kind of event would take care of our average monthly snowfall just like that. Hopefully the Euro comes back on board a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 GEM doesn't look too bad for some of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The GFS wants to hit the U.P or Northern Lower in this state... It seems. The second wave that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Ero 240 stalls an ULL over ETX. would be a lot of rain for the middle of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 NAM shows a bit of back side snow at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 NAM shows a bit of back side snow at this time frame. Don't be mislead by this image Geos, QPF is precipitation that has fallen in a specific time period, in this case 6 hours. I would guess there could possibly be some flakes to end the event but not nearly as much as I think you believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Changeover to snow on the back edge looks plausible. Not expecting much in the way of sticking but the cold air will be coming in pretty quickly and based on past experience in this type of setup, models are sometimes a bit too slow so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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