jasonli18t Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Coastal flooding is what I fear the most. with NE winds and low tide cycle? i understand the fear given what we've just gone through, but i think the bulk of the threat with this storm is wind gusts combined with potentially saturated ground and weakened/damaged trees and power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 00z NAM at hour 51 looks really cold compared to the GFS. Worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 with NE winds and low tide cycle? i understand the fear given what we've just gone through, but i think the bulk of the threat with this storm is wind gusts combined with potentially saturated ground and weakened/damaged trees and power lines. strongly agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 00z NAM at hour 51 looks really cold compared to the GFS. Worth noting. but it's too far east too far east for the low = little or no precip benchmark = probably too warm for cities, coastal, and anywhere not elevated too far west = torch for everyone expect places well to our west and northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM is a whiff to the east, weird.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 After a historic storm effected the northeast just under a week ago, mother nature is reloading. A strong northeaster will effect the regions damaged by sandy starting wednesday night and continuing into thursday evening. Currently there are two pieces of energy that have the potential to phase. One vorticity max is over the prairies right now and is weak. As this feature tracks to the southeast it will carve out a large trough digging as far south as the northern gulf of mexico. This will allow the system to pick up copious amounts of Gulf Moisture before tracking northeastwards off the south carolina coast. In the meantime our second piece of energy will move over a strong upper high centred over california. As this tracks eastwards a strong vorticity max will form over Manitoba and dive southeastwards into the trough and phase with the southern branch energy sitting off the carolina coast. The phased system will track up along the east coast and have a chance to intensify over the warm gulf stream. The trough will have a negative tilt to it which will allow cold air to come charing in from the northwest. These two factors will allow for major intensification. Models have been consistent on the possibility of a 980mb mean sea level pressure off the new jersey coast which is nothing to just shrug off, especially with our current situation. There are some disagreements on the models. Currently there are two camps. The Ukmet and GFS ride the storm along the coast with lowest pressures in the low 980's. The GFS phases the branches further north and east before moving the storm westwards into eastern mass. This causes a stronger storm to form south of cape cod increasing impacts in eastern mass, rhode island, new jersey, NYC and connecticut. This would send a 6-8ft storm surge onto the jersey shore which has no protection after sandy. Since this stays over water a constant battering of 30-35mph sustained NE winds along the coast and 25-30mph inland is to be expected. Gust of up to 60mph would also be felt on the jersey shore, in NYC, coastal connecticut and mass, something trees cannot afford after sandy. This would be a very bad scenerio for the jersey shore and NYC. The ECMWF has a slightly different solution, tracking the storm further west with an earlier phase. Sustained winds are similar to other models but Wind gusts of 63-70 mph can be felt as far inland as NYC, the jersey shore and costal connecticut. Further NE Cape Cod and eastern long island can experience gusts of 75-80mph. The wind concern will be felt mostly along the immediate coastline which is areas effected the worse by sandy. The ecmwf sets up the heaviest rain bands southwest and east of new jersey/ NYC which is good news. Right now I am favouring more of a west solution similar to the ECMWF because I think this model is handling the phase better then the GFS. I see this occurring earlier with storm peak intensity off of the nj coast. A pick your poison situation is setting up as if the euro is correct more wind concerns will be felt along the coast while less rain will fall further north. If the GFS is correct rain will batter the northeast coast with less wind. Either way, even though it pains me to say it power outages will be another big concern in NYC, eastern mass, rhode island, connecticut and the jersey shore. Take necessary precautions to prepare for this storm early on so that you aren't caught off guard later, especially if you live along the immediate coast. Flooding will be a major problem further south across eastern virginia, north carolina and southern maryland. Snowfall will also be a major concern with this storm as cold air is already in place from our current trough. Major snowfall accumulations in amount of 3-6" are possible for interior sections of the northeast including the catskills, adirondacks, northern vermont and new hampshire as well as western maine. 925mb temperatures will stay below freezing across this area for the entire storm which will allow precipitation to stay predominantly as snow. Dynamic cooling will be created in areas where the heaviest precipitation sets up causing heavy wet snow to pile up (central PA, upstate NY, Vermont and southern Quebec). Power outages will be less of a concern due to very few leaves left on trees. Many areas near sea level across central and eastern PA as well as south eastern NY will start off as snow before changing over to rain or a mix as the system allows warm air to advance northwards. Here is my preliminary forecast for cities effected by the storm. Albany: Starts as snow before changing over to a mix 1-3" accumulates Burlington: 6 inches falls, 2-5" accumulates NYC: 0.5-1 " of rain, gusts up to 50kts Boston: 2-3" of rain gusts up to 55kts Atlantic City: 0.75-1.25 " of rain, wind gusts up to 55kts Philadelphia: Gusts up to 45kts, 0.5-1" of rain New Haven: 0.75-1" of rain, gusts up to 55kts Virginia Beach: 2-2.5" of rain, gusts to 65kts Ocean city, MD: 1.75-2.25" of rain, peak gusts between 60-70mph Montreal: 4-7" of snow falls 5-10cm accumulates Quebec City- 4-7" falls 5-10cm accumulates If you want me to do a forecast for your city/town it would be my pleasure to do so, just reply or PM me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 6 to 8 foot storm surge? I can respect you trying to put out a forecast, but I'm unsure of how you are coming up with some of your predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Sure, Liberty NY in the Catskills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Sure, Liberty NY in the Catskills? don't feed the troll, seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I stopped reading at "northeaster". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I stopped reading at "northeaster". lmao, same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 lmao, same Had me at "effected" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Gfs still tucking the low inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 925mb winds nearing 70 knots once again, on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS is fairly slow as well, with a long period of onshore flow for East facing beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 925mb winds nearing 70 knots once again, on this run. 60-70 kts down to H95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 60-70 kts down to H95. Could get pretty gusty especially along the coast...the onshore flow is not exciting to see either. As doug noted a few pages ago the lapse rates on average don't seem to be as favorable but decent mixing could get these low level winds down for a while which is concerning especially with such a prolonged period of winds ripping just off the deck at 925-950mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 6 to 8 foot storm surge? I can respect you trying to put out a forecast, but I'm unsure of how you are coming up with some of your predictions. Yeah those storm surge numbers seem high, especially since the storm will be at astronomically low tide, rather than at astronomical high tide with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Very low level lapse rates might support a gust or two approaching hurricane strength based on ISP forecast sounding from the GFS, in my amateur opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah those storm surge numbers seem high, especially since the storm will be at astronomically low tide, rather than at astronomical high tide with Sandy. Surge is independent of tide; the storm tide is surge + tide. Really it matters more whether the peak surge in a given location matches the high tide timing perfectly, than whether it's a new or full moon or not. As of the 18Z GFS, Port Jefferson and Bridgeport in Western LI sound had forecast surges of almost 5 feet, and total storm tides of 11 feet (that's with both locations not having a perfect matchup of surge and tide). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 0z GFS has 60mph wind gusts for NYC. The low stalls near LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Instantweathermaps from the 0z GFS, show wind gusts 50-60mph inland and 60-70mph coastal areas, for a 6-9 hour period. Even gusts near hurricane force on the east end of LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Been waiting about two hours in line for gas. The models forecast a moderate to heavy rain and gusty wind event on Wednesday Time to fill up the gas tank and go shopping for food. I hope this storm underperforms. We love storms, but need a break. Good luck and healing to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Is the UKMET even worth a lot? WAY east with its 0z run FWIW... surprisingly very similar to the NAM with the track (not so much the intensity). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 00z GGEM is a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 74 hour GGEM still showing a period of wet snow over Sussex and Orange counties with a 969mb low off the coast..it's not terribly close to the coast itself though so it will be interesting to see the wind fields. Interesting that most of the models have the phase occurring early enough that the low is occluding by the time it gets to our latitude or whereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah, this is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm trying to recall what the forecast 950mb winds were from the March, 2010 storm and see how they compare to this one. We won't be getting nearly those same rainfall amounts, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Compared to where the 5H vort and 85h temp gradient is, the slp seems a bit too far east, on the UKMET at 48hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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