Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z GFS is running. The 18z NAM is probably no where even close to reality, as it sometimes is not in it's less than reliable longer range, as the pattern does not favor such an outcome, and none of the more reliable Global Models have such a solution for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z NAM is way east; though, IIRC, the 12z RGEM had also shifted the system well offshore... I just posted the GGEM. It has a major storm for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 This is the one time I am praying for the 18z NAM to pan out. Go east storm, go east. ...though the NAM is notoriously unreliable outside 48 hours (unless there was some upgrade that I missed the e-mail on) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I just posted the GGEM. It has a major storm for our area There was still about a 120 mile shift east between 0z and 12z...it passed 60 miles west of the Benchmark on the earlier run and 60 miles east of it on the latter...though saying it was "well offshore" was likely a poor choice of words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Looks like a bit more CAD this time on the 18z GFS than the 12z and the 6z runs. We'll see if this makes any noticeable differences in the outcome of the system. There is also already a closed of 1008 mb isobar that is associated with the area of low pressure that was not present with the 12z and 6z runs. The energy associated with the s/w at 500 mb is also faster this run as well than it was with the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z GFS is stronger and closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Yeah, the overall run is definitely stronger than it was with the 12z run. Not good for the coast. The two streams phased this run earlier wheras they were separate in the previous run longer, which is the reason why the GFS had a stronger Low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z GFS continues to be far warmer than NAM/EC guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Interestingly, just like the 12z ECMWF, the GFS also has this odd "dryslot" near the NYC area. Not sure why this is the case, but if this verified, NYC would be spared from the worst of the rain with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z GFS continues to be far warmer than NAM/EC guidance. Yeah, quite a bit of a discrepency with the thermal profile of the GFS and that of the ECMWF/NAM for being so close to the time the precipitation should arrive with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 The 12z ECMWF ENS are east of the Operational again. Quite a strong signal for a mean with pressure in the 980s: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z GFS has 60 mph gusts for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The wind profiles on the forecast soundings, as some have been alluding to for a few days, still look favorable for mixing of higher gusts with the inversion located above some pretty strong winds at 925mb. This is concerning especially for areas near the coast and elsewhere especially if we do get more significant amounts of rain this time along with the moderately strong wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 John, In a normal decade, how often would we be faced with a 979mb low just off the coast? Definitely not as few times as you would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The wind profiles on the forecast soundings, as some have been alluding to for a few days, still look favorable for mixing of higher gusts with the inversion located above some pretty strong winds at 925mb. This is concerning especially for areas near the coast and elsewhere especially if we do get more significant amounts of rain this time along with the moderately strong wind gusts. And the moisture makes the situation even more dicey, as that helps to increase the instability. 60mph gusts are a definite concern for coastal locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Definitely not as few times as you would think. yea its not that rare so to speak. its not out of reach for a normal wrapped up nor'easter like this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Definitely not as few times as you would think. Its happened like half a dozen times in the past 2-3 years anyway. Before Sandy, there was Irene, October 29-30, 2011, Boxing Day 2010, Feb 24-25, 2010 just off the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Definitely not as few times as you would think. Possibly...but also not an everyday occurrence...even the Blizzard of '78 never fell any lower than 984 mbs while producing hurricane force winds....though those winds were clearly augmented by the storm's interaction with a strong anticyclone over eastern Canada. The famed "Blizzard of '88"...perhaps this region's most legendary snow event...saw the barometer fall as low as 978 mbs as it approached the waters near Block Island and Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 This could get ugly. GFS 925mb winds are above 64 knots for much of the coast, which is below the inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 This could get ugly. GFS 925mb winds are above 64 knots for much of the coast, which is below the inversion. How strong do you think the gusts will be in this case? Unlike Sandy, there's also heavier rain falling in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 How strong do you think the gusts will be in this case? Unlike Sandy, there's also heavier rain falling in this time frame. Gusts to 60 mph would be possible at the coast based on the 18Z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Gusts to 60 mph would be possible at the coast based on the 18Z GFS run. That's generally my thinking as well at this time, I just hope it won't be any worse than that... The coast is especially more vulnerable following Sandy, this is the last thing they need after a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I just pray the models are wrong right now. This is looking ugly for the coast and slap in the face with the winds right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 For our coastal locations, the inversion does appear to be above 925mb. However, the lapse rates definitely do lessen significantly at around 950mb or so, but that could still suffice for 60mph gusts along the coast, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If below the inversion, does it mean more mixing of the strog winds?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If below the inversion, does it mean more mixing of the strog winds?? Yes. However, the lapse rates--once you get to 950mb or so--are not nearly as steep as they were with Sandy. So while some mixing will occur, it will be nearly impossible to mix down the 64 knot + 925mb winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Even the 975mb winds are nothing to sneeze at. So even in a slightly conservative scenario, 40+ knot gusts could be mixing down to the surface in coastal regions, with localized areas of 50 or so knots for NYC and east, based on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I just pray the models are wrong right now. This is looking ugly for the coast and slap in the face with the winds right now. I'm right there with you but unfortunately I doubt that'll be the case. This was a storm detected by models quite early and many of the global teleconnectors are in strong support of East Coast trough amplification/cyclogenesis. Looks fairly certain that the coast will see 40-50mph gusts with a 2-3ft surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Coastal flooding is what I fear the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.