uofmiami Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 96HR EC & 850 winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 That's not true, it's a great approximation of the rain-snow line during most of winter. Obviously you have to be a little bit more conservative in mid-November but areas that are precipitating with 850s below 0C have a shot at snow. It basically shows where the possibility lies if precip is heavy and maybe where there is a bit of elevation. The problem in November is that many other details have to fall into place perfectly in order or snow or frozen precip to occur, especially near the coast, but all across the region. The SSTs offshore are still warm, the ground temp is still quite mild, so other levels of the atmosphere MUST be sufficiently cooled without interference of a wind that is ne, at least partially off the still relatively warm ocean waters. It would be one thing if you had an almost due northerly wind with an arctic airmass to our north. Such is not the case. The conditions for snow/frozen in October a year ago were at least marginally better than these. I'm not saying that it can't happen, but you can't jump the gun and assume that the ocean won't warm up the surface just enough for rain fairly quickly. Yes, the 850 temps become more telling as we get into the winter months for the obvious reasons. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 John, I also wrote a million times that the surface temps are in the middle 30's, in addition to the 850 being below freezing. Heck the surface temps are in the low 30's in some places I am certain. Check forecast soundings and thermal profiles during the storm before talking about branches on power lines, power outages, etc...let alone frozen precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 this run is awful for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 this run is awful for the coast Haven't seen low level winds yet but this type of solution wrapped up and near the coast would be pretty unfortunate to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I just have surface and 850 temps on the ECMWF. I don't have soundings for it, but I have been looking at this model for a long time, and knowing what I know, that is the way it looks to me. If anyone else here has soundings for the EC, I would love to know if I am wrong on my thinking. I am very concerned about ice or snow on the trees. Well my point is that you can't say anything definitive until you've seen the entire thermal profile. So with posts about power outages/etc when you've only looked at two small slivers of the atmospheric profile, you can come off as an alarmist. Just letting you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The problem in November is that many other details have to fall into place perfectly in order or snow or frozen precip to occur, especially near the coast, but all across the region. The SSTs offshore are still warm, the ground temp is still quite mild, so other levels of the atmosphere MUST be sufficiently cooled without interference of a wind that is ne, at least partially off the still relatively warm ocean waters. It would be one thing if you had an almost due northerly wind with an arctic airmass to our north. Such is not the case. The conditions for snow/frozen in October a year ago were at least marginally better than these. I'm not saying that it can't happen, but you can't jump the gun and assume that the ocean won't warm up the surface just enough for rain fairly quickly. Yes, the 850 temps become more telling as we get into the winter months for the obvious reasons. WX/PT Good post. I recall an event several years back on Thanksgiving that was on track to produce a light snowfall across the metro area, but upon waking Thanksgiving morning, I had light rain w/ a NELY wind and temperature of 40-44 degrees. Interior NJ particularly West Milford did well I think w/ several inches. The ocean is a significant problem up until early December, even w/ NELY winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 reasons why i do not post here much anymore. I am without power, so I am staying at a co-workers and decided to post a bit while I have some "free" time but I cannot take this 850 mb stuff. If this were December, January, or February then ok but this is early November. While there may be some cold air around, the lowest levels may be tough to overcome. This thread is a mess..please think about the quality of what you're posting before you post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Good post. I recall an event several years back on Thanksgiving that was on track to produce a light snowfall across the metro area, but upon waking Thanksgiving morning, I had light rain w/ a NELY wind and temperature of 40-44 degrees. Interior NJ particularly West Milford did well I think w/ several inches. The ocean is a significant problem up until early December, even w/ NELY winds. I was close; November 19th 2007: http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/?section=menu&%20target=wint0708snowtotals#11-18/11-19-07 Several inches for interior NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 7 of 12 gfs ens ind... take it sub 980, an 8th one has it 981mb. strong signal for a deep storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 reasons why i do not post here much anymore. I am without power, so I am staying at a co-workers and decided to post a bit while I have some "free" time but I cannot take this 850 mb stuff. If this were December, January, or February then ok but this is early November. While there may be some cold air around, the lowest levels may be tough to overcome. Most people only get 850mb temps on the Euro, however....the soundings are expensive. So you can't blame people for using the data they have to attempt to make a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 reasons why i do not post here much anymore. I am without power, so I am staying at a co-workers and decided to post a bit while I have some "free" time but I cannot take this 850 mb stuff. If this were December, January, or February then ok but this is early November. While there may be some cold air around, the lowest levels may be tough to overcome. I am sure that many of the same people were saying the same thing last October as well when we had that Historical East Coast snow event... The thing is the way I am seeing it is that the ECM once again has been extremely consistent just like it was with Hurricane Sandy... Last October here inland we actually started out as rain and quickly changed to snow because the 850s above were below freezing and the precipitation was heavy enough that it pulled it down to the surface and here in allentown (ABE) we ended up with 6.8 inches to as much as 12 inches in South Allentown on the mountain.. The point is that if it could happen in October...there is a better chance of it happening in November. I certainly would not be calling anything definitely at this point but for areas that were hit by Sandy..and I can personally vouch for my location (ABE) we were definitely hit harder then the NWS thought...that this occurring would not be a good thing and it does raise somewhat of a level of concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Haven't seen low level winds yet but this type of solution wrapped up and near the coast would be pretty unfortunate to say the least. The GFS forecast soundings had 45KT at the surface and 60KT down to only 750 feet north of the center of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 These are the surface winds on 12z Euro, Wed night, near high tide: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The forecast surface temp at the height of the precip at Andover, NJ by the Euro is 34 degrees and at Morristown it is 36 degrees. Unfortunately, my experience is that it is usually a degree or two too warm. The problem without seeing a sounding is that you don't know how thick the column of above-freezing air is. It could be 36F up to 900mb and then you're definitely seeing rain even if 850s are around 30F/-1C. The lower levels get pretty torched in this scenario by east flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 There was a time when November snowfall was possible. Saying it's impossible to happen is absurd IMO. Not saying it's gonna snow down the shore and NYC with this storm tho(I'm not a meteorologist) just saying it has happened in November much more than once. The last thing this area needs is a coastal storm so soon after Sandy. It wouldn't take much to get coastal flooding again and bring power outages to areas. Taken these model runs verbatim, north and west locations should def keep on the lookout for frozen precip. Coastal areas should focus more on wind and rain and coastal flooding again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I should of said "November snowfall happened". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I am sure that many of the same people were saying the same thing last October as well when we had that Historical East Coast snow event... The thing is the way I am seeing it is that the ECM once again has been extremely consistent just like it was with Hurricane Sandy... Last October here inland we actually started out as rain and quickly changed to snow because the 850s above were below freezing and the precipitation was heavy enough that it pulled it down to the surface and here in allentown (ABE) we ended up with 6.8 inches to as much as 12 inches in South Allentown on the mountain.. The point is that if it could happen in October...there is a better chance of it happening in November. I certainly would not be calling anything definitely at this point but for areas that were hit by Sandy..and I can personally vouch for my location (ABE) we were definitely hit harder then the NWS thought...that this occurring would not be a good thing and it does raise somewhat of a level of concern. IIRC, our wet-bulb zero height was near the surface in that situation. I don't have access to ECMWF soundings (one can dream...) but from what I'm seeing at least from the GFS the wet-bulb zero height is around 900-850 hPa with surface dewpoints at or above freezing, which won't do the trick. Of course that is the GFS and it shows 850 hPa temperatures above freezing at MMU anyway... Edit: A few hours before the transition: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 IIRC, our wet-bulb zero height was near the surface in that situation. I don't have access to ECMWF soundings (one can dream...) but from what I'm seeing at least from the GFS the wet-bulb zero height is around 900-850 hPa with surface dewpoints at or above freezing, which won't do the trick. Of course that is the GFS and it shows 850 hPa temperatures above freezing at MMU anyway... I personally would not even look at the GFS beyond about a 24-48 hr time frame window... i personally favor higher resolution models like the ECM over the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I personally would not even look at the GFS beyond about a 24-48 hr time frame window... i personally favor higher resolution models like the ECM over the GFS.... Why? The GFS isn't awful in the medium-range. No one is making a definitive forecast about precipitation type and 850 hPa temperatures at this point. The point I was trying to make is that a huge factor in last October's snowfall was the wet-bulb zero heights, which you don't have working as much in your favor this time around. (Though again, neither of us have access to ECMWF soundings...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 CMC really has a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Why? The GFS isn't awful in the medium-range. No one is making a definitive forecast about precipitation type and 850 hPa temperatures at this point. The point I was trying to make is that a huge factor in last October's snowfall was the wet-bulb zero heights, which you don't have working as much in your favor this time around. (Though again, neither of us have access to ECMWF soundings...) While it may not be awful it is not stellar either... When talking about the range of 96 hrs out ..we are getting into the ECM pinwheel time..meaning it is hard to beat at that time range.. Nobody is making a definite forecast but to suggest not to worry about 850s etc (while it is only a part of what to look at) and this is not directed at you either (but an explanation) ...we could potentially be looking at a scenario like last october where the NWS was calling for all rain the day before ...and yet we know how that ended... I think we need to keep our minds open ...and especially those that were hit by Sandy..whether rain and wind or winter mix and wind or snow and wind its not going to help matters ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 reasons why i do not post here much anymore. I am without power, so I am staying at a co-workers and decided to post a bit while I have some "free" time but I cannot take this 850 mb stuff. If this were December, January, or February then ok but this is early November. While there may be some cold air around, the lowest levels may be tough to overcome. With 850s below zero, IF it really comes down hard AT TIMES, I could see rain mix with snow or even sleet mix in at times with temps in the upper 30s or very near 40. That certainly can happen. But anyone looking for accumulations in low elevations or near the coast is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 There was a time when November snowfall was possible. Saying it's impossible to happen is absurd IMO. Not saying it's gonna snow down the shore and NYC with this storm tho(I'm not a meteorologist) just saying it has happened in November much more than once. The last thing this area needs is a coastal storm so soon after Sandy. It wouldn't take much to get coastal flooding again and bring power outages to areas. Taken these model runs verbatim, north and west locations should def keep on the lookout for frozen precip. Coastal areas should focus more on wind and rain and coastal flooding again. Keep in mind, early November is different from late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 This is a rain event and the winds will be quite gusty on the shores, which is the very last thing they need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 IIRC, our wet-bulb zero height was near the surface in that situation. I don't have access to ECMWF soundings (one can dream...) but from what I'm seeing at least from the GFS the wet-bulb zero height is around 900-850 hPa with surface dewpoints at or above freezing, which won't do the trick. Of course that is the GFS and it shows 850 hPa temperatures above freezing at MMU anyway... Edit: A few hours before the transition: IIRC accuweather premium has skew-t for the euro and it definitely has text soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Is there a website I can go to that would teach me how to read that thing? http://www.atmos.mil...kewT_HowTo.html http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/help/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 NAM looks as if it shows a period of snow for NYC, parts of western LI, and Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 NAM looks as if it shows a period of snow for NYC, parts of western LI, and Westchester. 18z NAM is way east; though, IIRC, the 12z RGEM had also shifted the system well offshore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 This is the one time I am praying for the 18z NAM to pan out. Go east storm, go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.