jasonli18t Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 focusing on snow potential right now is a little absurd. we should all be watching the potential for winds along the coast (not so much for additional flooding, more for the potential for additional outages with many already weakened trees and power lines) not to mention the coast could actually see some appreciable rain to go along with any winds this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GFS has been flip-flopping like crazy though. 11/3 12z...Cold 18z...Warm 11/4 0z..Cold 6z...Cold 12z...Warm Its REALLY warm now.. Huge turnaround from 6z. If I'm raining through most of it so are you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Its REALLY warm now.. Huge turnaround from 6z. If I'm raining through most of it so are you Yes, for one run. If the 18z and 0z runs show this, than it is continuity. I know the ECM and GGEM supports it, but these things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 focusing on snow potential right now is a little absurd. we should all be watching the potential for winds along the coast (not so much for additional flooding, more for the potential for additional outages with many already weakened trees and power lines) not to mention the coast could actually see some appreciable rain to go along with any winds this time around. Not all of us live on the coast and the snow potential up here can lead to continued power outages affecting the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Yes, for one run. If the 18z and 0z runs show this, than it is continuity. I know the ECM and GGEM supports it, but these things happen. Its early Nov. The best to do is expect rain and if it snows then so be it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Yes, exactly. The snow on the trees which are already leaning on the power lines would lead to widespread power outages, or affect the ability of the power line workers to fix the people who are still without power. Snow would be the worst case scenario for those of us who live out here. any of the areas affected the worst by sandy have ZERO shot at seeing snow. sure, it would make things messy up there, but it really wouldn't impact the hard hit sandy areas. and that isn't to minimize some of the outages up north, but to me, the hard hit areas are the ones that suffered loss of life and complete loss of property (jersey coast, southern NYC, long island coast, westchester coast, CT coast) and none of these places have a shot at snow. wind, on the other hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I'm upstate in Liberty NY, elevation 1,500 feet. I'm here because my Lynbrook NY house in nass county is still without power, no power here just a good generator and kerosene heater. My question, here in Sullivan County, Can I be looking at a snowstorm in the mid week period? Someone alluded to middletown NY, (exit 120), once you pass Middletown, elevation climbs rapidly. Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 i wish people would stop wishcasting snow. we have a serious issue on our hands with the winds and the duration of them. I still do not have power and this is only going to take longer. Wow, 0c 850 line doesnt even get close to us. If anyone had any hope for snow still then the GFS just shut that down completely. This is looking more and more like a cool windy rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 12z GFS 925mb winds, a little bit later Wed. night. But still below the inversion at 900mb. 64kt+ are for coastal sections: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 12z GFS 925mb winds, a little bit later Wed. night. But still below the inversion at 900mb. 64kt+ are for coastal sections: How do the lapse rates look for this timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The GFS forecast soundings have a wind max of 45KT at the surface and 60KT down to 750 feet over Eastern LI in 90 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 I have a bunch of power lines and trees that aren't down, but they are leaning quite precariously. It's not going to take much to bring them down. We could be looking at pretty widespread power outages from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 12z GEFS mean. This track would mean less chance of snow with it being closer to the coast. Still a windy situation for us on LI and closer to the coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Looking at the high resolution graphics of the Canadian model on Wright-Weather, it has the 850 line running through Warren and Sussex Counties in New Jersey, and very close to the Delaware River the entire way down to Maryland for the entire storm with surface temps in the mid 30's the entire time. It has the low deepen to a 968mb about 150 miles off the NJ Coast at 102 hrs. Total Precip in Northwest New Jersey and Northeast PA is around 2.25 inches. Rain. It's not all about the 850 line. Everything is torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Rain. It's not all about the 850 line. Everything is torched Agree. This looks like a rain event for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 The trends today have been for a slower storm, which would allow for more WAA to torch about every single level of the atmosphere. A slower storm would also mean more precipitation though, and more of a long duration wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Who cares if we are getting rain or snow.. There was little shot in getting much if any snow from this storm.. What is telling though to me is the track.. If this was January we'd be in for a very nice snowstorm w/ this type of track... IF this is a sign for the upcoming winter, it's going to be a long winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The point he is trying to make is not what the map shows but the 850 line means nothing this time of year. You need to check the levels below 850 and I can almost guarantee there will be issues in Warren and Sussex. Stop wishcasting. Maybe you are not reading what I wrote? I wrote that the 850 line runs through Warren and Sussex Counties. Do you think that possibly this lower resolution graphic could be off by say 5-10 miles? Besides, what difference does it make. It will be horrible. The fear for me is that this graphic is wrong and the high resoltion one is correct. That would be a disaster for me and Northeast PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Maybe you are not reading what I wrote? I wrote that the 850 line runs through Warren and Sussex Counties. Do you think that possibly this lower resolution graphic could be off by say 5-10 miles? Besides, what difference does it make. It will be horrible. The fear for me is that this graphic is wrong and the high resoltion one is correct. That would be a disaster for me and Northeast PA. Its gonna be close up here.. As of now I would say you have to be >50 miles NW to even have a shot at any frozen precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Can we stop with the 850 line already? It means absolutely nothing!!!!! 850 line runs through central NJ at 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Can we stop with the 850 line already? It means absolutely nothing!!!!! Well, a necessary but not sufficient ingredient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Can we stop with the 850 line already? It means absolutely nothing!!!!! That's not true, it's a great approximation of the rain-snow line during most of winter. Obviously you have to be a little bit more conservative in mid-November but areas that are precipitating with 850s below 0C have a shot at snow. It basically shows where the possibility lies if precip is heavy and maybe where there is a bit of elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 1234abc with the neg tilt does it shows 850 below 0 in DC/PHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Maybe you are not reading what I wrote? I wrote that the 850 line runs through Warren and Sussex Counties. Do you think that possibly this lower resolution graphic could be off by say 5-10 miles? Besides, what difference does it make. It will be horrible. The fear for me is that this graphic is wrong and the high resoltion one is correct. That would be a disaster for me and Northeast PA. You are not getting a disaster. Even if it starts off as a mix it will all be gone in 20 mins when everything torches and we get rain. The high winds are the main problem here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 1234abc with the neg tilt does it shows 850 below 0 in DC/PHL? 96 hours on the ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 96 hours on the ECM Def colder this run.. Looks like some accumulating snows up this way if that was to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 yeah I saw 96 hours but was just curious where the 850 line runs @ 102, thanks man...Really interesting configuration, it seems the low bombs with perfect timing for DC etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 This thread is a mess..please think about the quality of what you're posting before you post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 This thread is a mess..please think about the quality of what you're posting before you post. So how much snow am I getting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 So how much snow am I getting? Not sure just check the 850 line and start posting about how this is another superstorm and snow should eventually make it to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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