Weathergun Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Is that sustained or gusts? I consider 10m winds on the models, to be sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Regarding the shortening of winter, November has been bad...but March really just stands out to me more than anything. I mean it's almost as if that month just stands alone now, apart from winter. Aside from the March 09 event (which gave me nothing), it's been just awful here for years. By a few weeks into the month, it's 60 degrees every other day and thoughts of winter are long gone. You could argue we've had six straight bad March's since the '09 storm was on February 30th followed by zip....but March '07 was actually very exciting with the spectacular snow and sleet event...and at least March 2011 was cold....the early part of the decade had some good March's..2001, 2004, 2005....and March 1999 was also good...it's a transitional month....really an elevation month when it comes to snow...I think the last few years are an anomaly and it will eventualy revert to previous form... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 When was the last time NYC saw measurable snow in November? November 1987 or 1988? It's been abnormally long. November 2002....0.3" @ JFK...and of course there were a few inches in November 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 November 2002....0.3" @ JFK...and of course there were a few inches in November 1995. How about Central Park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 How about Central Park? Probably 1995...the Upton site is not operating at full throttle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 You could argue we've had six straight bad March's since the '09 storm was on February 30th followed by zip....but March '07 was actually very exciting with the spectacular snow and sleet event...and at least March 2011 was cold....the early part of the decade had some good March's..2001, 2004, 2005....and March 1999 was also good...it's a transitional month....really an elevation month when it comes to snow...I think the last few years are an anomaly and it will eventualy revert to previous form... Bear in mind that December had a 30 year streak of infamy....1970 - 1999....when snowfall averaged less than 2" per December...then, starting with the Dec 2000 storm, all kinds of snow records for December began to fall over the next 10 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro has a bomb. Winds look like the #1 issue with this. There's not gonna be much rain with this. Maybe an inch or 2 I noticed you said this a couple times. This amount of precip is actually a very good amount for a noreaster. Think of the strongest noreasters in winter and how much precip they produce. For example our biggest snow makers ever usually produce up to and below 2 inches of liquid. You're not going to get much more than that most of the time. It's not a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The extreme pattern continues to be able to produce such a strong storm so soon after Hurricane Sandy. During any other year, this type of phaser riding up the coast would be the main coastal event of the fall. The center even clears out at as it really wraps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Here's Mt. Holly's HWO for my county: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 422 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012 NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-050930- SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS- LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- 422 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. Seems like they're in line with my thinking about precipitation possibly starting off as frozen in NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Wow 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Wow 06z GFS Yeah, and while these maps are probably overdone as they always are, it illustrates my point about the NW Burbs quite nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Nothing like low 40's and rain for the coast. Winds look to be sustained from 30-40 with gusts up to 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Nothing like low 40's and rain for the coast. Winds look to be sustained from 30-40 with gusts up to 60. Yeah, that's something the coast definitely does not need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 FWIW, the 00z ECMWF came in a bit cooler than the 12z run from yesterday, and gives NW NJ a few inches of snow per the WxGround Snow Maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 As far as this storm goes, if it does move more east like depicted..winds would be strong, but a more northerly component will certainly help out instead of something ENE. I think LI has a chance for very strong winds..possibly more from the NE. Anything that tries to tuck in under LI would probably force more NE winds on NJ which would not be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 As far as this storm goes, if it does move more east like depicted..winds would be strong, but a more northerly component will certainly help out instead of something ENE. I think LI has a chance for very strong winds..possibly more from the NE. Anything that tries to tuck in under LI would probably force more NE winds on NJ which would not be good. The euro however, would put serious NE winds at the NJ coast for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Take this extremely FWIW, since it is the 12z NAM at 84 hours. Check out how strong the winds already are on E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Something like that would be good for NJ coast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The high resolution ECMWF on Wright-Weather shows snow from about Northwest of Rt. 78 and 287 and where they meet Could I have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Could I have a link? Wright-Weather is a paid subscription. You do get front end snow where you are in Dutchess County on the 00z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GFS coming in tucked away .. 984 just south of the benchmark @90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 GFS coming in tucked away .. 984 just south of the benchmark @90 It's also a lot warmer than the 06z GFS. We'll see if this is the trend today or not with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GFS coming in tucked away .. 984 just south of the benchmark @90 Looks very warm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 12z GFS: The flow stronger into the West Coast, doesn't allow the northern and southern streams to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I hope this mofo heads way right and bye bye. I am living out of a damn knapsack and my house is a friggin' igloo. No one here needs this storm impeding repair and restoration efforts. Are any models taking this thing out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 12z GFS: The flow stronger into the West Coast, doesn't allow the northern and southern streams to phase. I'm guessing that is the reason for why it was so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Both the GFS and Euro wrap quite a bit of warm air into the center of this off the Gulf Stream. The places favored for a heavy wet snow would be the higher elevations and adjacent interior spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 12z NOGAPS Kind of retrogrades it back to the west similar to what happened with sandy because it starts off pretty far east at 78 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 GGEM also looks warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GFS has been flip-flopping like crazy though. 11/3 12z...Cold 18z...Warm 11/4 0z..Cold 6z...Cold 12z...Warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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