Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 963 mb on the RGEM around hour 100...unbelievable for a 2nd storm to drop so low just 10 days later...the atmosphere usually settles down for a spell after a convulsion such as Sandy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I can't believe people are taking a snow threat seriously outside of very high elevations or far inland. But that's just me. Thermal profiles might have trouble bringing snow even to interior SNE. There was a time when November was considered something of a snow month over the interior...from say the Poconos to the Catskills to the Berkshires...recent Novembers have seen very little snow even there...October actually seems snowier the last few years....but places like Norfolk, CT do have long term November averages of more than a half foot of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 There was a time when November was considered something of a snow month over the interior...from say the Poconos to the Catskills to the Berkshires...recent Novembers have seen very little snow even there...October actually seems snowier the last few years....but places like Norfolk, CT do have long term November averages of more than a half foot of snow... To me it seems more relegated to the far interior now...and more focused on the second half of November which is when winter can begin over those areas. I've spent many white thanksgivings in Vermont the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 What do you think about Westchester with a little elevation? The station up at Yorktown Heights always seems to make something out of nothing...so, yes, they probably have a decent chance to see a period of snow up around where 684 meets 84.... <actually that's just over the Putnam line...but you get my drift> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 0z GFS snowmap has snow in the big cities lol. I doubt that is going to happen. Looks like a cold rain for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I can't believe people are taking a snow threat seriously outside of very high elevations or far inland. But that's just me. Thermal profiles might have trouble bringing snow even to interior SNE. We had a huge snowstorm a week earlier last year, John. Obviously climatology argues against significant snowfalls in early November, but it also argues against them in late October, and against 940mb hurricanes making landfall in the metro area. We have an anomalous pattern with a west-based -NAO, and temperatures are supposed to be in the 20s here Monday morning, so it's not as if thermal profiles are so far off from supporting snow, especially when you're talking about suburbs with a little elevation. The 500mb pattern also looks ripe for a Nor'easter with the 18z GFS showing -300m anomalies at 500mb under this trough. I think if the storm pushes 50-75 miles east and strengthens slightly earlier, it's a serious snow threat. If not, it's a threat for heavy rain and high winds, which will be unfortunate with recovery efforts from Sandy still underway. Winds look quite high which is disturbing. It would be even worse if we had those winds with heavy wet snow, bringing renewed power outages to the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We had a huge snowstorm a week earlier last year, John. Obviously climatology argues against significant snowfalls in early November, but it also argues against them in late October, and against 940mb hurricanes making landfall in the metro area. We have an anomalous pattern with a west-based -NAO, and temperatures are supposed to be in the 20s here Monday morning, so it's not as if thermal profiles are so far off from supporting snow, especially when you're talking about suburbs with a little elevation. The 500mb pattern also looks ripe for a Nor'easter with the 18z GFS showing -300m anomalies at 500mb under this trough. I think if the storm pushes 50-75 miles east and strengthens slightly earlier, it's a serious snow threat. If not, it's a threat for heavy rain and high winds, which will be unfortunate with recovery efforts from Sandy still underway. Winds look quite high which is disturbing. It would be even worse if we had those winds with heavy wet snow, bringing renewed power outages to the interior. The storm is actually taking a pretty neat track...just inside the Benchmark...8 weeks from now this would be snow down to JFK with an ordinary (for the season) anticyclone in place.... Edit: "Neat' from a snow potential standpoint...not from a more damage one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Strong storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 To me it seems more relegated to the far interior now...and more focused on the second half of November which is when winter can begin over those areas. I've spent many white thanksgivings in Vermont the last several years. It's part of the overall climate warming; the snow season has gotten slightly shorter with less snowfall in November and March. I was talking to my grandmother the other night, who is 92, and she said she remembers quite a few significant snowfalls living in the north Bronx when she was younger during the month of November. Her claim of "big snows" might be exaggerated, but it was definitely a bit more common. November has been one of the fastest warming months whereas October has been one of the slowest warming in the NYC metro area. Recently, November has been a torch. Nov 2011 was +4.2 at NYC, Nov 2010 was +0.8, Nov 2009 was +4.0. 2008 was the last time we had a below normal November; that month finished -1.2F with the Thanksgiving cold shot producing consecutive departures of -11, -14, -12, -13, -17, and -15. Five days straight had highs in the 30s at Central Park. 2008 was the last time we saw any cold weather in November. I think this month is going to turn the trend around and be more like 2008. We should have some serious negative departures this week with highs in the mid-upper 40s and lows near freezing, and then I expect a quick torch followed by a cutter bringing in the season's coldest air. With the Kamchatka/Aleutian ridge developing, I wouldn't be surprised if the coldest anomalies stay further west but that we get cold again by 11/15-11/20. Canada looks really chilly in the longer-range with that block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It's part of the overall climate warming; the snow season has gotten slightly shorter with less snowfall in November and March. I was talking to my grandmother the other night, who is 92, and she said she remembers quite a few significant snowfalls living in the north Bronx when she was younger during the month of November. Her claim of "big snows" might be exaggerated, but it was definitely a bit more common. November has been one of the fastest warming months whereas October has been one of the slowest warming in the NYC metro area. Recently, November has been a torch. Nov 2011 was +4.2 at NYC, Nov 2010 was +0.8, Nov 2009 was +4.0. 2008 was the last time we had a below normal November; that month finished -1.2F with the Thanksgiving cold shot producing consecutive departures of -11, -14, -12, -13, -17, and -15. Five days straight had highs in the 30s at Central Park. 2008 was the last time we saw any cold weather in November. I think this month is going to turn the trend around and be more like 2008. We should have some serious negative departures this week with highs in the mid-upper 40s and lows near freezing, and then I expect a quick torch followed by a cutter bringing in the season's coldest air. With the Kamchatka/Aleutian ridge developing, I wouldn't be surprised if the coldest anomalies stay further west but that we get cold again by 11/25-11/20. Canada looks really chilly in the longer-range with that block. November has definitely been warm in recent years; but when long term average monthly snowfall is less than an inch as it in NYC...there are likely to be a good number of years where measurable snow is entirely absent from the scene... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We had a huge snowstorm a week earlier last year, John. Obviously climatology argues against significant snowfalls in early November, but it also argues against them in late October, and against 940mb hurricanes making landfall in the metro area. We have an anomalous pattern with a west-based -NAO, and temperatures are supposed to be in the 20s here Monday morning, so it's not as if thermal profiles are so far off from supporting snow, especially when you're talking about suburbs with a little elevation. The 500mb pattern also looks ripe for a Nor'easter with the 18z GFS showing -300m anomalies at 500mb under this trough. I think if the storm pushes 50-75 miles east and strengthens slightly earlier, it's a serious snow threat. If not, it's a threat for heavy rain and high winds, which will be unfortunate with recovery efforts from Sandy still underway. Winds look quite high which is disturbing. It would be even worse if we had those winds with heavy wet snow, bringing renewed power outages to the interior. I don't really see what last years October snow bomb has to do with it. I'm not saying the event won't occur because it's too anomalous, but there's no way you can look at the setup and the forecast thermal profiles and say it looks good for snow near the coast or in the non-elevated suburbs. I agree that if it takes the perfect track and deepens rapidly, then the potential exists for frozen precipitation in the interior places such as your area and maybe sneaking down into MMU's whereabouts. But models indicate a good amount of mid to low level warm air being advected into the system...and I think we could be unfortunately be dealing with another rain/wind event..obviously to a much less dramatic extent than what we all witnessed several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 November has definitely been warm in recent years; but when long term average monthly snowfall is less than an inch as it in NYC...there are likely to be a good number of years where measurable snow is entirely absent from the scene... When was the last time NYC saw measurable snow in November? November 1987 or 1988? It's been abnormally long. And yes, I agree John that the set-up is far from perfect for snow. We had better synoptics on 10/29 last year for sure. But I think the models might be overdoing the warming if this does bomb near the benchmark. The 0z GFS was much colder than the 18z GFS. If you move the track even 25-50 miles east with the low bombing a bit earlier, you would definitely see some snow in the suburbs. Again, I'm not totally disagreeing with you, and I am definitely in agreement about the wind problem with recovery, but I think you might be slightly too pessimistic on snow. You know more than me, though, John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 When was the last time NYC saw measurable snow in November? November 1987 or 1988? It's been abnormally long. And yes, I agree John that the set-up is far from perfect for snow. We had better synoptics on 10/29 last year for sure. But I think the models might be overdoing the warming if this does bomb near the benchmark. The 0z GFS was much colder than the 18z GFS. If you move the track even 25-50 miles east with the low bombing a bit earlier, you would definitely see some snow in the suburbs. Again, I'm not totally disagreeing with you, and I am definitely in agreement about the wind problem with recovery, but I think you might be slightly too pessimistic on snow. You know more than me, though, John. Well we didnt miss it by much last year It's still early to talk about details of frozen precipitation anywhere, when it comes down to it. We each have our opinions and I'm sure we'll be talking about it more over the next few days. Regarding the shortening of winter, November has been bad...but March really just stands out to me more than anything. I mean it's almost as if that month just stands alone now, apart from winter. Aside from the March 09 event (which gave me nothing), it's been just awful here for years. By a few weeks into the month, it's 60 degrees every other day and thoughts of winter are long gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Well we didnt miss it by much last year It's still early to talk about details of frozen precipitation anywhere, when it comes down to it. We each have our opinions and I'm sure we'll be talking about it more over the next few days. Regarding the shortening of winter, November has been bad...but March really just stands out to me more than anything. I mean it's almost as if that month just stands alone now, apart from winter. Aside from the March 09 event (which gave me nothing), it's been just awful here for years. By a few weeks into the month, it's 60 degrees every other day and thoughts of winter are long gone. March has been simply awful. NYC was +8.4 in March 2012. That's just ridiculous. Dobbs Ferry's last significant March snowfall was 10" on 3/1/2009. We had about 3.5" fall in two small events in late March 2011; that was a great blocking pattern but it came about a week or so too late as climatology was starting to fight snowfall in the inner suburbs. Had we seen the late March 2011 pattern in the middle of the month, we could have easily scored two large snowfalls as we had a significant overrunning event and the coastal on April 1st. That was just bad luck in that case. We did have some good stretches in March when I was in high school. March 2004 had two 6-8" events right around the equinox, and I remember shoveling off the courts to start tennis practice. March 2005 also had a pretty cold stretch with some snow. And of course, looking back to my middle school years, we had a very good March in 2001 with the "bust" that still delivered a foot of snow. That was the capping event of a very good winter with a -10F December that produced the moderate Millennium snowstorm, which was of course heavier in New Jersey near you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Does the Euro come out soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Does the Euro come out soon? It out to 72hr. 1003mb low just off GA/SC border: http://www.instantwe...SL_msl&hour=072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It out to 72hr. 1003mb just off GA/SC border: http://www.instantwe...SL_msl&hour=072 Keep em coming weathergun!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Nasty sounding for JFK on tonight's 00Z GFS, with winds of 65 kts below the inversion around 925 hPa and a nearly dry adiabatic layer up to 950 hPa. Would be good for sustained at 40G50-60 I'd think. Crazy push of WAA aloft, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 96hr 984mb low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Nice to see the clocks change with the Euro coming in an hour earlier again. Anyway 96h 850's at 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 120hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro has a bomb. Winds look like the #1 issue with this. There's not gonna be much rain with this. Maybe an inch or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It stays 984 from the Carolinas to NE? Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro looks warm at 120hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It stays 984 from the Carolinas to NE? Weird. It peaks in the low 980's then begins to weaken as it heads NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Nasty sounding for JFK on tonight's 00Z GFS, with winds of 65 kts below the inversion around 925 hPa and a nearly dry adiabatic layer up to 950 hPa. Would be good for sustained at 40G50-60 I'd think. Crazy push of WAA aloft, too. Fook! And I just shut down the generator tonight as power finally came back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 10M winds on the Euro are up to 45- 50 kts in the LI area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On the Euro WU maps, it's gets down to 980mb, east of Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 10M winds on the Euro are up to 45- 50 kts in the LI area Yeah..this is gonna be the main story with this as we move forward I think. The models have been hinting pretty strongly at good low level winds once again. The GFS was weaker tonight but there were 60kt or greater winds at 925mb on a handful of the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 10M winds on the Euro are up to 45- 50 kts in the LI area Is that sustained or gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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