IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I don't understand that logic. If anything the models should be more accurate this close to the event. We shall see. Precip is about to move into the area. Why would I look at a model when I can clearly see what's going on just by looking at the local radar? It's just the GFS up to its usual games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I think based on current radar, satellite and observations, it's best to go somewhere between the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 snow in Manalapan, nj - western monmouth Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I can not remember the last time I saw such a well defined center of circulation on radar for a noreaster, which appears to be moving steadily NW by the way. The precip is circulating in from the east; that is westward per the ordinary cyclonic swirl...the actual storm is likely to track between NNE and NE....the strong anticyclone over Quebec will likely reduce precip amounts somewhat over the interior....especially west of the Delaware River and northwest of Orange and Putnam counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The RAP matches up pretty well with the current radar and focuses the heaviest precip close to NYC Metro over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The precip is circulating in from the east; that is westward per the ordinary cyclonic swirl...the actual storm is likely to track between NNE and NE....the strong anticyclone over Quebec will likely reduce precip amounts somewhat over the interior....especially west of the Delaware River. Respectfully disagree, a lot of the models were showing a more tucked into the coast solution, including the 00z SPC WRF which actually takes the center over the twin forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyDop Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 My brother tells me there is a wintry mix at my house right now in Central Nassau, Garden City South. Anyone else in Nassau seeing this? Just starting to drizzle here in Jersey City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I suggest using the SREF's once you are within this window. It appears that there will be a cutoff over E NJ. Warren County/Somerset County may see the highest accumulations (probably from 4-6 in). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 My brother tells me there is a wintry mix at my house right now in Central Nassau, Garden City South. Anyone else in Nassau seeing this? Just starting to drizzle here in Jersey City. I have a mix of rain and wet snow in Western Nassau with the temperature down to 37 from 40 an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The RAP matches up pretty well with the current radar and focuses the heaviest precip close to NYC Metro over the next few hours. Interesting to note, the RAP shoots this thing pretty quickly NE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I suggest using the SREF's once you are within this window. It appears that there will be a cutoff over E NJ. Warren County/Somerset County may see the highest accumulations (probably from 4-6 in). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Flake size has increased and its almost all snow now in Bayside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Interesting to note, the RAP shoots this thing pretty quickly NE/NNE. It actually lingers the precip over the area into this evening in essentially the same areas that it is falling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Just started to lightly snow here as well. Stiff north wind as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 It actually lingers the precip over the area into this evening in essentially the same areas that it is falling right now. I meant the surface low itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Just started snowing here in essex county NE NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Old home reporting snow and temps in the mid 30's.. It would be funny if SW CT had more snow than me up in lake effect country by mid november, but i guess thats what happens sometimes. Good luck to everyone back home and stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Winds on ling island easily gusting 40 + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Are the winds still going to be gusting to 60mph as forecasted or are they going to be less??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 That band looks nasty... Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Looks like gravity waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak22 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Snow just started north of Morristown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Respectfully disagree, a lot of the models were showing a more tucked into the coast solution, including the 00z SPC WRF which actually takes the center over the twin forks. A slightly more easterly solution is supported by current barometer trends....29.80" @ACY, 29.77" @FOK and 29.75"@ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Better late than never URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1217 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012 ...SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT... NJZ004-103-105-107-NYZ069-070-080130- /O.EXA.KOKX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-121108T1100Z/ EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- 1217 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...EASTERN PASSAIC...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN UNION...ROCKLAND... AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 800 FEET. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * IMPACTS...A COMBINATION OF SNOW...GUSTY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS COMBINATION ALSO COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Almost appears to be a solid core developing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Gonna be a wild evening as the storm gets cranking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Upton really cranked up the accumulation totals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Can someone post the visible satellite of the storm in motion ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Long Island area for Next 6 Hours According to my SmartCast, seeing the strongest winds occurring from 22Z to 03Z, with peak gusts of up to 51MPH around the 23Z time frame. Otherwise 36035G45MPH throughout the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Can someone post the visible satellite of the storm in motion ? http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/NER/VIS/&NUMBLOOP=10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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