IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Upton's latest map: That is actually in fairly good agreement with Mt. Holly's, keeping most of the accumulating stuff west of I-287. The good news for me is that is where I live All in all though, if the NAM is correct those forecasted numbers are going to bust way too low, even though it's early November and the ground isn't even close to being frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 4km NAM would support some heavy wet snow in the areas just west of NYC. Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Afternoon commuters in the metro area in for what I think will be, for most, quite a surprise....and probably an unwelcome one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 4km NAM would support some heavy wet snow in the areas just west of NYC. Sent from Tapatalk It also shows snow in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 That is actually in fairly good agreement with Mt. Holly's, keeping most of the accumulating stuff west of I-287. The good news for me is that is where I live All in all though, if the NAM is correct those forecasted numbers are going to bust way too low, even though it's early November and the ground isn't even close to being frozen. The ground is cold, struggled to reach 40 the past few days.Doesn't need to be frozen, we learned that last year even into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Afternoon commuters in the metro area in for what I think will be, for most, quite a surprise....and probably an unwelcome one. The fact winds go almost straight north and there is a ton of low dewpoints and dry air in the Hudson Valley leads me to believe this could very well be mostly snow for a good part of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 4km NAM would support some heavy wet snow in the areas just west of NYC. Sent from Tapatalk Looks like models are showing the heaviest past 3pm this afternoon, but the radar looks like it much closer then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Snowing in Atlantic City already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Mr. G on 101.1 just said that the storm surge forecast is 3-4', has anyone else heard this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The patch convection NW of center, may eventually be where a core of storm or hurricane force winds develop. As the models have been suggesting. Hopefully it stays offshore or weakens, as currently progged: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The fact winds go almost straight north and there is a ton of low dewpoints and dry air in the Hudson Valley leads me to believe this could very well be mostly snow for a good part of the area. I just hope there's not the usual "dead zone" like in a lot of these nor'easters east of the band that always seems to set up over NJ. The NAM seems to hint at that and it would suck to watch the heavy snow west of us in NJ while many people east suffer in drizzly/mixed conditions. But just seeing the first flakes and hopefully enough to stick in spots would be awesome in and of itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Nantucket just reported a 51mph wind gust: PROVINCETOWN CLOUDY 45 37 76 NE31G43 29.97F NANTUCKET CLOUDY 48 42 80 NE30G51 29.81F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I wonder if Upton is going to adjust their forecast upwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I wonder if Upton is going to adjust their forecast upwards? After it starts they will. They always scramble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I feel like some people are really downplaying the snowfall potential here. I do realize that we aren't going to get the type of accumulations that we would see in January but I don't think 6" + are out of the question for even the western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I wonder if Upton is going to adjust their forecast upwards? In all honesty they at least need WWA for the western zones. The chances of seeing at least 1-2" west of the city are very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 In all honesty they at least need WWA for the western zones. The chances of seeing at least 1-2" west of the city are very high. In the city as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I feel like some people are really downplaying the snowfall potential here. I do realize that we aren't going to get the type of accumulations that we would see in January but I don't think 6" + are out of the question for even the western burbs. Honestly, I'd rather be on the low side for this one just in case. Would be very frustrating to expect 4-6" and wind up with much less in the end if temps and mixing become an issue. Things do look promising for a little surprise though. Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This is gonna go 1/25/00 style, initial major slam job and someone will get screwed on the dry slot afterwards, probably will be a bit more east of that storm but it could be very much the same sort of effect as that band comes in from the SE and then pushes NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Mt. Holly has updated my point and click. Now simply says "SNOW" but only calling for daytime accumulations of around an inch. If that band swings through as progged I could get that in less than an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Looks like NYC could be snowing within an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This is gonna go 1/25/00 style, initial major slam job and someone will get screwed on the dry slot afterwards, probably will be a bit more east of that storm but it could be very much the same sort of effect as that band comes in from the SE and then pushes NW. Agree with this, the early occlusion with the major heavy band that plows northwest followed by dry slot and an over all weakening of the frontogenesis band..with that said, i think a lot of people around/nw of city are going to look out there window and be very surprised at the outdoor scene in the next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Heckuva good looking storm for this time of year. I'm pretty certain my expectations for this things are much too low, but I"m just gonna let this one play out. Convective snows are always a good ace to have in your back pocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 If radar trends hold I think the corridor between TTN-HPN will see heavy snow developing between 11AM-1PM with rates reaching 2"/hour, presentation is stupendous and check out the juice incoming on the OKX radar. Those returns are insane over LI. Also interested to compare final results between Harlem and around Columbus Circle in the park. I think this may be an instance where uptown Manhattan sees 1-3" more than Midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 In all honesty they at least need WWA for the western zones. The chances of seeing at least 1-2" west of the city are very high. its 42 degrees..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 its 42 degrees..... It's in the 30's here in NJ and in any event once that band swings in you're going to get dynamic cooling. Nobody is forecasting anything substantial from the city on east, but I have reason to believe that Upton has dropped the ball for western zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 12z GFS slightly further east and drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 12z GFS slightly further east and drier. Time to turn the models off bud, the radar says all you need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Time to turn the models off bud, the radar says all you need to know. I don't understand that logic. If anything the models should be more accurate this close to the event. We shall see. Precip is about to move into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I can not remember the last time I saw such a well defined center of circulation on radar for a noreaster, which appears to be moving steadily NW by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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