Dsnowx53 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Plus, what's especially dangerous is that the inversion is ABOVE the 925mb level, and the lapse rates below this inversion actually turn out pretty steep. Perhaps not a true MAUL per-se, but near the ground may very well be close to dry adiabatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Plus, what's especially dangerous is that the inversion is ABOVE the 925mb level, and the lapse rates below this inversion actually turn out pretty steep. Perhaps not a true MAUL per-se, but near the ground may very well be close to dry adiabatic. Er..can you simpilize this for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Er..can you simpilize this for me? It means that stronger winds aloft could mix down to the surface and provide strong wind gusts at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 00z GFS has initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It means that stronger winds aloft could mix down to the surface and provide strong wind gusts at times. Thanks. I have learned alot in the last 2.5 years...but not that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Thanks. I have learned alot in the last 2.5 years...but not that much. You're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Er..can you simpilize this for me? It means you should tie down light objects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Plus, what's especially dangerous is that the inversion is ABOVE the 925mb level, and the lapse rates below this inversion actually turn out pretty steep. Perhaps not a true MAUL per-se, but near the ground may very well be close to dry adiabatic. Yeah agreed. If the models are correct irt the phase (not impossible given blocking) jet structure is decent once again and the surface low looks to be near the gulf stream bathwater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loadletterpaper Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Here's something of an indirect link to check out. Page up from this link to find a recent Sandy MAUL discussion. Also, follow the link provided by LokoAco to CoastalWx's really nice mixing explanation. CoastalWx is referring to a sounding posted earlier in that thread. http://www.americanw...25#entry1837621 Thanks. I have learned alot in the last 2.5 years...but not that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 This run of the 00z GFS looks like it's coming in cooler than the 18z GfS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 00z GFS is pretty far east of the 18z GFS at hour 90. Precip is on our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 This run of the 00z GFS looks like it's coming in cooler than the 18z GfS. Also looks a bit farther east than previous runs. Barely gives any precip in Eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Looks like cold rain and wind with 0c 2m line up in N NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Amazing how much warm air works in with a sub 984mb on the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 850s crash east and are cooler than the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 850s crash east and are cooler than the 18z GFS. Meh. This looks really warm. If anything 850's crash west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Meh. This looks really warm. If anything 850's crash west I would argue that this run was cooler than the 18z run. Definitely a lot of warm air getting caught up in this system in the middle and towards the end of this storm though as you've mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Looks like cold rain and wind with 0c 2m line up in N NY The GFS is the last place I would look for guidance regarding 2m temps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Why are we talking snow so close to the coast? And 850 is not a good level to look at this time of year. The concern should be wind issues and this run just keeps the wind going longer since the track is more over the BM rather than along the coast and over us which would lighten the wind as it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Amazing how much warm air works in with a sub 984mb on the benchmark Do you think the GFS is correct? Anyway, it looks like a more manageable storm this run for coastal areas. This is one time I would just want heavy snow in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The GFS is the last place I would look for guidance regarding 2m temps.... I understand that... saying what it says verbatim, even though snowlover123 thinks its colder in the upper levels... its still raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Why are we talking snow so close to the coast? And 850 is not a good level to look at this time of year. The concern should be wind issues and this run just keeps the wind going longer since the track is more over the BM rather than along the coast and over us which would lighten the wind as it passes. No one is talking about snow close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Meh. This looks really warm. If anything 850's crash west That line has been jumping around the last few runs....hard to say how much warm air will wrap back around...biggest problem is probably a crummy...even by November standards....retreating anticyclone into the Canadian Maritimes....but, always remember, higher spots from NW Jersey to NW CT don't need an arctic airmass in place to get snow....a modified polar one is usually sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 I understand that... saying what it says verbatim, even though snowlover123 thinks its colder in the upper levels... its still raining Wouldn't be surprised if in NW NJ they got a period of brief frozen precipitation on the GFS. Probably rain elsewhere as you've said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 That line has been jumping around the last few runs....hard to say how much warm air will wrap back around...biggest problem is probably a crummy...even by November standards....retreating anticyclone into the Canadian Maritimes....but, always remember, higher spots from NW Jersey to NW CT don't need an arctic airmass in place to get snow....a modified polar one is usually sufficient. This run definitely looked colder than 18z. The low is too close to the coast for early November, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 This run definitely looked colder than 18z. The low is too close to the coast for early November, however. Yeah...but push it any further east and all the meaningful precip would miss the area wide right....the fact is, even a perfect track will be hard pressed to produce snow in the area because it is the first week of November and climatologically the odds are simply very long...as antecedent air masses are not particularly cold this time of year and the 59 F ocean does not help matters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 we need to be more concerned about prolonged wind gusts up to and over 50 MPH in an already vulnerable state. Not sure if this track would create issues on the south shore with coastal flooding however. Yeah...but push it any further east and all the meaningful precip would miss the area wide right....the fact is, even a perfect track will be hard pressed to produce snow in the area because it is the first week of November and climatologically the odds are simply very long...as antecedent air masses are not particularly cold this time of year and the 59 F ocean does not help matters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Yeah...but push it any further east and all the meaningful precip would miss the area wide right....the fact is, even a perfect track will be hard pressed to produce snow in the area because it is the first week of November and climatologically the odds are simply very long...as antecedent air masses are not particularly cold this time of year and the 59 F ocean does not help matters... ...though I still think Sussex, western Passaic, Orange, Putnam and Litchfield Counties have a good chance at measurable snow on Wednesday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 00z GGEM looks about the same as the 12z GGEM. The frozen precip lasts perhaps a touch longer this run than the 12z GGEM, but it still has the same idea of a mixed bag of precip for a good deal of the NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Why are we talking snow so close to the coast? And 850 is not a good level to look at this time of year. The concern should be wind issues and this run just keeps the wind going longer since the track is more over the BM rather than along the coast and over us which would lighten the wind as it passes. I can't believe people are taking a snow threat seriously outside of very high elevations or far inland. But that's just me. Thermal profiles might have trouble bringing snow even to interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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