Snow_Miser Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 This run is MUCH better already than the 00z run. Very nice snow event for the area so far through 18 hours on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 Total pcpn through hour 21. Most if not all of this is snow for interior NJ. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F07%2F2012+06UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p12&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=021&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 18 hour NAM is a thump of wet snow from the city into the suburbs. Surface low is perfectly located at 00z Thu and a still decently strong CCB is sitting over Central/ NE NJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This run is juicy..Probably over an inch of precip for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Wow, this probably went from a 2-4" to a 4-8" for interior areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This is a great run for Philly, Central NJ away from the shore, all of Northern NJ, NYC, SE NY and W CT. First snowfall of the season is hours away for those locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Weenie snow map certainly one of the most impressive yet. 6" for NYC, 10" for PHL, and 12" for some random place in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Winds in east long island already getting gusty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 Winds in east long island already getting gusty A bit breezy in Somserset County right now, enough to rattle the windows at times, but probably nothing compared to what you're seeing right now in E LI. How strong would you estimate the winds to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Roughly 15g25-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 What would latest models bring peak winds to around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The 6z GFS looks almost exactly like the Euro now. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Putting a few plows on...unreal..hurricane to Plowing in 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Provided we're precipitating hard enough, these soundings support accumulating snow for even JFK. Edit: I should say suburbs of JFK, since the urban heat island effect and such will still wreak havoc here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The dewpoints are definitely higher, though, once you're east of NYC compared to being west of NYC. This is due to the winds being NE instead of N. EWR's dewpoint is 24, while JFK's is 29. Even KNYC's dewpoint is 23, while KLGA's is 27. It will definitely be harder for the east of NYC suburbs to cool the surface to a temperature cold enough for accumulations, based on this. But in a heavy band, it can be done. The areas west of NYC have the benefit of not having to rely on dynamics nearly as much to keep their boundary layer cold, though, and that will ultimately make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The dewpoints are definitely higher, though, once you're east of NYC compared to being west of NYC. This is due to the winds being NE instead of N. EWR's dewpoint is 24, while JFK's is 29. Even KNYC's dewpoint is 23, while KLGA's is 27. It will definitely be harder for the east of NYC suburbs to cool the surface to a temperature cold enough for accumulations, based on this. But in a heavy band, it can be done. The areas west of NYC have the benefit of not having to rely on dynamics nearly as much to keep their boundary layer cold, though, and that will ultimately make a big difference. Less of an IMBY post and more of a N Jerz question. Given the colder solutions coming in, will this help bump ratios higher and have a drier snow, thus reducing the potential for massive power outages like October of last year? Just got power back in Sussex County and am currently up in the Poconos w/ a 1 year old. Trying not to get stuck again w/ no power when it's MUCH colder. Any thoughts on snow ratios/impact would be greatly appreciated. Thanks to all! Crazy we're going from Hurricane to this in about a week!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 The HPC has upgraded the totals for the area. They show a 40-70% chance of 4 inches or more in most of interior Nj, and now a small probability of 8 inches or more has popped up in W NJ and E PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 So the 6z NAM brings 10"+ for Orange county while the 6z GFS brings 2-3".. Can we have anymore of an agreement 12 hrs before an event? (sarcasm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Even better. Upton seems completely disinterested in this event. No accumulation in the Scotch Plains forecast. Meanwhile, all models have measurable accums for this area and even into the city. So confusing. Mt. Holly, meanwhile, is all about this system. Has 2-4" in Philly's eastern suburbs even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Winter Storm Warning for Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Even though my area usually over performs in these types of events, I'm still not expecting anything more than a slushy inch or two by this evening. Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 It already appears to be some gaining tropical or subtropical characteristics on visible, over the gulf stream. Some convection firing just NW of the center, few hundred miles east of VA Capes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Nam came in slightly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Nam came in slightly colder Also looks to be hitting the same areas with heavy snowfall as the 6z run did.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Also looks to be hitting the same areas with heavy snowfall as the 6z run did.. Agree. Looks like accumulating snow just west of NYC. NYC has a chance of seeing a few hours of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM adjusting SE towards other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Great snow signal west of the city of the NAM. Deform band sets up over NJ per simulated radar a long with subsidence for western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Upton's latest map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The 4km NAM delivers a really nice burst of heavy wet snow across the metro today. Maybe some thundersnow in the strongest banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 snow aside, what do the winds look like? we still have major issues here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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