Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 It is roughly similar...maybe a hair faster at the end with the mid level warming. How much frozen precip is portrayed on the Euro for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I really hope so. I was thinking of making an annoying commute tomorrow back to my old stomping ground at Rutgers, but I'd really like to not do that, considering the gas situation would make my commute all mass transit. I just want to see some snow! I can't really recall a time where the Euro was so much colder than other guidance this close to the event. Usually it's the Euro that will run things a tad warm, and the NAM that has a cold bias within its CCB because of its mesoscale schemes. But if there is one model that I want being the cold model in this range, it's the Euro. Plus, it doesn't destroy the coastline! Its a win-win. Too bad I can't see it, just going to have to rely on the radar and the skies at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 At this point my only concern is the mid-levels much different than the 10/28 event last year where I was uneasy about the boundary layer because the DPs advecting in were very marginal. We pulled it off then and we probably can pull it off again but there is little margin for error, the precip has to come down hard and fast to get that layer cooled enough so that any sort of WAA cannot overcome it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I really hope so. I was thinking of making an annoying commute tomorrow back to my old stomping ground at Rutgers, but I'd really like to not do that, considering the gas situation would make my commute all mass transit. I just want to see some snow! I can't really recall a time where the Euro was so much colder than other guidance this close to the event. Usually it's the Euro that will run things a tad warm, and the NAM that has a cold bias within its CCB because of its mesoscale schemes. But if there is one model that I want being the cold model in this range, it's the Euro. Plus, it doesn't destroy the coastline! The gas situation is pretty much back to normal here in my part of Monmouth County at least. All gas stations back open and no lines at all here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I really hope so. I was thinking of making an annoying commute tomorrow back to my old stomping ground at Rutgers, but I'd really like to not do that, considering the gas situation would make my commute all mass transit. I just want to see some snow! I can't really recall a time where the Euro was so much colder than other guidance this close to the event. Usually it's the Euro that will run things a tad warm, and the NAM that has a cold bias within its CCB because of its mesoscale schemes. But if there is one model that I want being the cold model in this range, it's the Euro. Plus, it doesn't destroy the coastline! Well that's good... Any sleet or a flake or two down by me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The gas situation is pretty much back to normal here in my part of Monmouth County at least. All gas stations back open and no lines at all here. Good to know, thanks. The gas situation is still pretty awful in Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 How's the wind situation for NYC metro looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The clown maps on wunderground are lighting up now. Euro has a couple of inches of snow for virtually everybody away from the immediate beaches and west of Central LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The clown maps on wunderground are lighting up now. Euro has a couple of inches of snow for virtually everybody away from the immediate beaches and west of Central LI. wish it had totals....guess i have to wait for accuweather to update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I just can't believe how cold this run was. Who knows at this point. I would say 6z runs may be telling but really its just time to watch radar and out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The clown maps on wunderground are lighting up now. Euro has a couple of inches of snow for virtually everybody away from the immediate beaches and west of Central LI. back to back years with significant snow before november 9th is crazy. in CNJ in the previous 35 years before 2011, there was only 4 snowfalls of over 1" prior to december 1st. and all but one came in late november. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Anyone have a map they can post as per the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I think we need advisories for atleast the city on west. 2-4" isn't looking so bad right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm in the same boat- middle of Long Island gas situation is ongoing. I passed by a 2 mile gas line at 10pm. One station open, all others shut down. I can't believe how long it's taking. Okay back to the storm- When you say "much colder" on the euro, do you mean the freezing line is further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm in the same boat- middle of Long Island gas situation is ongoing. I passed by a 2 mile gas line at 10pm. One station open, all others shut down. I can't believe how long it's taking. Okay back to the storm- When you say "much colder" on the euro, do you mean the freezing line is further east? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I think we need advisories for atleast the city on west. 2-4" isn't looking so bad right now What if that wacky run of the NAM verifies though? Just sayin'. This Euro run is much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 What if that wacky run of the NAM verifies though? Just sayin'. This Euro run is much colder. The wacky nam run still gives areas just n and w of the city accumulating snows. Time for an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The wacky nam run still gives areas just n and w of the city accumulating snows. Time for an advisory. Really its too late, everyone is sleeping and precip will be here by mid morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 What if that wacky run of the NAM verifies though? Just sayin'. This Euro run is much colder. It initialized pretty far west, you can't put much stock in a model that spit out incorrect data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 What if that wacky run of the NAM verifies though? Just sayin'. This Euro run is much colder. Mark my words and quote me to death. The NAM wont happen, and if you stay up for the 6z you will see it change back. I know this model too well lol Agree with bmc, its time for an advisory. Precip is getting close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Upton now going wintry on the TAF for JFK with over 6 hours of sleet and snow... KJFK 070543Z 0706/0812 04012KT P6SM FEW040 OVC200 FM070700 03016G27KT P6SM SCT040 OVC150 FM071200 02024G35KT P6SM BKN035 OVC100 FM071500 02027G42KT 3SM -RASN OVC025 FM072100 36030G48KT 1SM PLSN BR SCT006 OVC010 FM072300 36033G52KT 1SM PLSN BR SCT006 OVC010 FM080500 35028G45KT 3SM -RA BR SCT008 OVC015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Amazing to see both of the high resolution NMM/ARW models showing the storm coming north/northwest and looping before heading out to sea. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/COMPRAD4_0z/wloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Handy IR Satellite link: http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaysat?region=ALB&isingle=multiple&itype=ir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 997mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Precip looks like it should arrive by 7-8AM in which case it could begin as snow. I think we changeover entirely by evening, so this will be another early season event with daytime accumulations due to heavy rates, similar to 10/31 last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 The 6z NAM is a lot weaker with the SLP so far than the 00 NAM was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 The NAM looks like it's cooler with the 850 temps than the 00z run, especially for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NYC and NNJ getting destroyed by hour 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I think a somewhat appropriate analogy may be the Veteran's Day snowstorm for totals... there was a very narrow stripe of 12"+ over the DC region. I think we will see totals that high somewhere (not in NYC), but there could be a decent spread of 3-6" totals as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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