harrisale Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Agreed. Very intriguing to see to say the least. This appears as though it will be a long event. Significant wind effects for 12-18hrs. amazing how it does a loop-de-loop at the jersey shore. horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Could you post the RGEM? On phone so I can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 RGEM http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/512_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 The RGEM is definitely east of the NAM, but it is also a bit west of it's 12z run by about 10-20 miles. That puts the city in line for about 5 hours of ice pellets at the end of the storm. A nasty situation indeed if it were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Curious to see if the GFS follows the NAM evolution. I doubt it does though. I thought the nam run was a blip as it always does this before a big storm but we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 Curious to see if the GFS follows the NAM evolution. I doubt it does though. I thought the nam run was a blip as it always does this before a big storm but we'll see... The NAM had initialization errors. BASED ON THE NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND ANALYSIS... THE MODEL PLACES THE SFC LOW OVER THE WRN ATLC ABOUT 60 NM TO THE W OF THE OBSERVED POSN. THE PMSL STAMP IN THE NAM IS ABOUT 35 NM TO THE W OF THE OBS LOW POSN. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 The 00z GFS is quite a bit further east than the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 GFS is a hair west-southwest, stronger, a bit slower and a little cooler just judging based on the national maps. It looks roughly similar to the RGEM...does not bring the surface low onshore like the NAM. 10m winds are still pretty strong but a nice swath of frozen precip across NJ/NYC/CT/SE NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The NAM had initialization errors. BASED ON THE NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND ANALYSIS... THE MODEL PLACES THE SFC LOW OVER THE WRN ATLC ABOUT 60 NM TO THE W OF THE OBSERVED POSN. THE PMSL STAMP IN THE NAM IS ABOUT 35 NM TO THE W OF THE OBS LOW POSN. http://www.hpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdhmd Those are pretty significant errors. GFS looks slightly further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 GFS is a hair west-southwest, stronger, a bit slower and a little cooler just judging based on the national maps. It looks roughly similar to the RGEM...does not bring the surface low onshore like the NAM. 10m winds are still pretty strong but a nice swath of frozen precip across NJ/NYC/CT/SE NY. Fairly similar to the 18z. A tick SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/nmmwrf.refc_animate_1h.html Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The SPC WRF brings the storm onto Long Island. Yikes. And check out the 2m temperatures during the majority of the event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 And check out the 2m temperatures during the majority of the event as well. Not sure where to check this...what are they? I'm guessing cold by the way you put it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 What's amazing about this storm is that, under normal circumstances, it would absolutely be the highlight of the fall here - the combo of winds, snow/rain, coastal impacts, and just general coolness factor of a storm like this is there - but because it's happening only 9 days after Sandy, it couldn't possibly be the signature event of Fall 2012 here. That puts into perspective how crazy of a pattern this is, even if it's just two storms we're talking about. That's two really high-interest storms in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 living in NY right now but staying in philly for a couple of days i could go back tomorrow--where do you think the better snow will be/? (if there is much of a difference?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The SPC WRF brings the storm onto Long Island. Yikes. And check out the 2m temperatures during the majority of the event as well. Just n and w of the city it crushes with white paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 living in NY right now but staying in philly for a couple of days i could go back tomorrow--where do you think the better snow will be/? (if there is much of a difference?) Philly will do much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This storm looks tropical on the high resolution models. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/mx10w_f19.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This storm looks tropical on the high resolution models. http://www.emc.ncep....0/mx10w_f19.gif Definitely feel some surprises in store... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Quite significant changes from this time last night when it seemed fairly likely this would be a weak system at best and perhaps even far enough East that that we would escape precip all together. Now some of the models are knocking on the door of a warning criteria snowfall for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This storm looks tropical on the high resolution models. http://www.emc.ncep....0/mx10w_f19.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Euro looks fabulous and wetter which means snowier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Euro is still nice..a bit stronger and around the same speed and track. The snow maps from the 12z run were surprisingly favorable so I would assume much would remain the same on this run. The great news is that it looks like the NAM's solution, which would slam the NJ Shore and LI -- is very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 850 line doesnt even get west of Montauk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The Euro is so much colder than other guidance. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The Euro is so much colder than other guidance. Wow. Lets hope it scores a major coup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 since SNE is sleeping , could anyone comment on wether the euro is roughly similiar temp /qpf wise for boston general area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 since SNE is sleeping , could anyone comment on wether the euro is roughly similiar temp /qpf wise for boston general area It is roughly similar...maybe a hair faster at the end with the mid level warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Lets hope it scores a major coup! I really hope so. I was thinking of making an annoying commute tomorrow back to my old stomping ground at Rutgers, but I'd really like to not do that, considering the gas situation would make my commute all mass transit. I just want to see some snow! I can't really recall a time where the Euro was so much colder than other guidance this close to the event. Usually it's the Euro that will run things a tad warm, and the NAM that has a cold bias within its CCB because of its mesoscale schemes. But if there is one model that I want being the cold model in this range, it's the Euro. Plus, it doesn't destroy the coastline! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.