Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Big surge of warm air aloft into NJ and NYC at 24 hours...this run cuts down on the several hours of snow big time in NYC and the immediate suburbs..around 25+miles west of the city you can start to see some accumulating snow/sleet. Simulated radar shows heavy precip entering the area at 10am, so there still seems to be a good window of cool temps aloft combined with good precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Have to hope the NAM is too far west. GFS will certainly be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 if this was a month later, woah! as is weenies who wanted snow now get more rain and wind....and the coast gets battered with highest winds possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Tucked into the coast and warmer air in the low levels kills any snow chances for the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Per nam, an initial large band moves through as snow with a 2-4" potential, then a lull/ dry slot with a second area of precip moving in later near the 'core' of the storm. That second precip area would prob be rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 What is it that is causing the nam to go west compared to the other models, also which runs have new information put into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Nam is too far west compared to other guidance. It will also have to deepen the current storm by 22mb in 22 hours to match its prog for 0z tomorrow. Not gonna happen. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Warm seclusion on the NAM very obvious in the mid levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Nice little snowstorm up here... Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Very close to a landfall in s/c nj.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 SREFs are now leaning heavily towards the 18z NAM solution (to a less dramatic extent which is to be assumed anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Not sure if i buy this. Need to see more models support a landfall in south jersey. lol and now we have a dual low edit: NAM has a strong history of doing wild things the night before a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Oh my...70-75kt winds in the lowest 0-30mb are very near the Central NJ coast at 24 hours on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I think we see 6z NAM shift a bit farther NE. It tends to make these nudges @ this time frame. 500mb closed off sooner, 850mb & 700mb lows were closer to coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This run actually isn't so bad for the (NJ) coast. The wind takes on a westerly component early and continues to back from there; strongest winds from the NNW. There is an easterly component further north in LI/CT, but a NNE wind there won't cause as much of a coastal flooding issue as it would in NJ. Upton noted that it discarded the 18z NAM in its disco, so not sure how much weight this 0z run actually carries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 High resolution 4km NAM nest actually brings the MSLP along the NJ shore at 32 hours. Holy crap. The 10m winds along the NJ Shore are strong for a prolonged period of time (over 10 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This run actually isn't so bad for the (NJ) coast. The wind takes on a westerly component early and continues to back from there; strongest winds from the NNW. There is an easterly component further north in LI/CT, but a NNE wind there won't cause as much of a coastal flooding issue as it would in NJ. Upton noted that it discarded the 18z NAM in its disco, so not sure how much weight this 0z run actually carries. Along the Central NJ Coast..the winds back to north/northeast at 50kts by 30 hours. It's still pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Along the Central NJ Coast..the winds back to north/northeast at 50kts by 30 hours. It's still pretty bad. How about further up the coast for NYC, li? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 High Wind Warning is now in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Just need a little advice from the experts, I was poised to go back to my Lynbrook NY house tomorow(still no power there) but I am currently with heat now here in Liberty NY, with the models trending westward, am I faced with a snowstorm here in the Catskills (sullivan County)? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Just need a little advice from the experts, I was poised to go back to my Lynbrook NY house tomorow(still no power there) but I am currently with heat now here in Liberty NY, with the models trending westward, am I faced with a snowstorm here in the Catskills (sullivan County)? Thanks If the NAM is right you will have snow 85% of the way home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Interesting that the 12km NAM on the PSU Ewall has much more support for frozen precipitation than we would've been thinking..at least 3-6 hours of frozen precipitation, especially inland away from the immediate coast. Looping through this you can see how precipitation becomes very spotty behind the initial thump of frozen precipitation..with a secondary max lift to the northwest of the surface low which will likely fall as rain in many areas if the NAM is correct. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETANE9_0z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Interesting that the 12km NAM on the PSU Ewall has much more support for frozen precipitation than we would've been thinking..at least 3-6 hours of frozen precipitation, especially inland away from the immediate coast. Looping through this you can see how precipitation becomes very spotty behind the initial thump of frozen precipitation..with a secondary max lift to the northwest of the surface low which will likely fall as rain in many areas if the NAM is correct. http://www.meteo.psu...0z/etaloop.html amazing how it does a loop-de-loop at the jersey shore. horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Interesting that the 12km NAM on the PSU Ewall has much more support for frozen precipitation than we would've been thinking..at least 3-6 hours of frozen precipitation, especially inland away from the immediate coast. Looping through this you can see how precipitation becomes very spotty behind the initial thump of frozen precipitation..with a secondary max lift to the northwest of the surface low which will likely fall as rain in many areas if the NAM is correct. http://www.meteo.psu...0z/etaloop.html Not really 3-4 was pretty much a given IMO. No where near enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Rgem is east of nam. Mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Rgem is east of nam. Mostly snow. Those color images out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 Rgem is east of nam. Mostly snow. Could you post the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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