RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 coastal flood warning up for parts of NJ, not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 November 1995 had 2.9" Good to see you. That's right, I forgot about the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 watching WV loops, this looks like it will tuck/hook inside the BM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 32 sussex, 30 mmu... and 30s rest of Jersey outside of coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Does that actually pop An area of -3f 850 temps in the deform band?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Does that actually pop An area of -3f 850 temps in the deform band?! It looks like it. The run gets warmer after this so looks like a thumping of snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 50-55kts just off the deck in northern NJ tomorrow evening and a impressive H7 UVV signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I live in a town that is adjacent to East Brunswick. Please go outside and look at your trees' foliage. They are certainly not bare and there is probably 60-70% of leaves still on the trees. Regardless of foliage, there are many weakend trees. In my area, there is probably an equal number of uprooted trees as there are trees that simply snapped at the base. Per the Nov 3rd foliage network update, high leaf drop for our entire area, which is 60-80% of leaves down. That was a few days ago, so you must be in the minority with a ton of leaves. http://www.foliagenetwork.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=403:ne-foliage-report-19-2012&catid=34:northeast-us&Itemid=68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Unfortunately, it looks like there is an increasing potential for a deformation band to affect parts of SENY and Central to Northern New Jersey. Starting to get concerned about the potential for a very heavy thump of wet snow in a short period of time. Omega looks rather impressive for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Apparently no-one else noticed that the 12z ECMWF showed convective precip as the storm begins. I think extremely heavy snow (maybe with thunder if the ECMWF is right) is a possibility as the storm begins and very localized areas could see 1"/hr+ rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 while winds will be higher in the deform bands, im more worried about winds along the coast as well as coastal flooding.....areas where people without roofs over their heads just cannot afford. if this tucks inside the BM, im making my way to the coast this weekend to help out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 as some have mentioned earlier today, the saving grace would be an early phase....but WV isnt looking good for that, the disturbance is still a ways away making a phase closer to our latitude all the more likely. http://www.meteo.psu..._US/animwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 18z 4km NAM has the same feature FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 A little delayed here, but a great loop of the NAM and you can see how the precipiation initially begins as rain, but as the heavier precipitation works in it switches to snow over much of NJ. You can also see the mid level warm layer that works in at the tail end of precipitation. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/cloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 the "eye" so to speak seems to take a similar path as sandy....cutting NW and W as it phases, obv when it occludes it drifts NE and not into PA but a warm gulf stream will enhance the bombing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 the "eye" so to speak seems to take a similar path as sandy....cutting NW and W as it phases, obv when it occludes it drifts NE and not into PA but a warm gulf stream will enhance the bombing out. This system isn't a true warm core. I highly doubt the "warmi-ish" waters will promote any sort of bombing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I have always avoided IMBY posts whenever possible. However, being that I'm in a bit of a jam, I was hoping I could break the rule just this once and look for some input from the crew. I have a flight from EWR to Houston on Thursday morning, scheduled to depart at 5:17am. Does anyone think there's even a chance it won't be delayed at this juncture? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM further NW and stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yeah the NAM is already coming in pretty amped up. The 21z ARW was very far west -- the center of the storm gets very close to the NJ Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM is stronger and NW through 18 hours...this could be another paste thump though with the stronger lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM is stronger and NW through 18 hours...this could be another paste thump though with the stronger lift. Strength may be the saving grace if you want snow, because its way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Column completely cools in parts of NJ after 15z, Easily snow in northern NJ by 18z via soundings off the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This is really tucked in now...lowest 0-30mb winds are increased from the 18z run. Terrible for the coast...50-60kts with some higher amounts near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Big surge of warm air aloft into NJ and NYC at 24 hours...this run cuts down on the several hours of snow big time in NYC and the immediate suburbs..around 25+miles west of the city you can start to see some accumulating snow/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Strength may be the saving grace if you want snow, because its way west. Not good for the costal folks if it's west also for inland folks with more snowpaste and some power issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The air definitely has the feel of snow tonight, nothing fall-like about mid 30s in November in NYC, an increasing rarity. Couldn't believe that Central Park cracked freezing today, when was the last November that happened?! I think the city will see an inch or maybe a few. I think the maximum uniform amounts will be 4-5", but lollipops to 12" are possible under the early convection that could be present (could also be sleet, like 1/20/2011). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 So weird that in a dynamic setup like this, the NAM is warmer than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Column completely cools in parts of NJ after 15z, Easily snow in northern NJ by 18z via soundings off the 0z NAM. The mid-low level WAA really surges in by 24 hours though..so many interests near the coast and even in the NYC suburbs are changing to sleet or rain by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Nam is too far west compared to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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