IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Upton pulled the trigger on WWA for Orange and Western Passaic Counties. Calling for 25-35MPH winds with gusts to 50 and 1-3" accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Havent seen the models in a while, but just took a lock at the GFS and NAM...looks like SW CT could be looking at a solid snow event. This is really wild. Hope the winds are too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think that this would be the first time that Central Park picked up more than a trace of snow in November since 89. How about 1995? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Never really thought about snow even being a possibility here, at least not anything accumulating, maybe a few flakes but nothing more. Initially the Nam looked weaker and a bit further east with the low but it caught up and definitely beefed up the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 410 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012 DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019-PAZ054-055- 060>062-067>071-070515- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.121107T1100Z-121108T1100Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET- MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN... NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO... CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JIM THORPE... STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON... WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 410 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH SOUTH AND EAST. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING... SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVIEST LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN AND SNOW MAY MIX WITH SOME SLEET AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY SO ANY DAYTIME ACCUMULATION WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO GRASSY AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TOWARD FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROAD SURFACES. TREATED ROADWAYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ICE FREE. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 How about 1995? They have it as a trace. I am not sure if the temp gets cold enough at the park for more than a trace tomorrow. But a front end burst before mixing could give the grass a light coating. 12 6:39 4:41 54 42 48 76 1879 26 1926 171 455 1.82 1975 T 1995* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 How about 1995? Doesn't matter. We saw CP get 2.8" last OCTOBER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Folks, I'm a little disgruntled by the "IMBY Snow Wishes." You do realize that 6-8 inches of snow along with winds to 40 knts would knock out power for millions again? Heavy snow + 70% foliage + jerry-rigged power lines + winds = possible disaster for same areas just hit by Sandy. Honestly, I could not create a worse scenario in my mind other than a major freezing rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 So after shattering snowfall records last October, we might do it again for November now. So how many months would that be, October, November, December, and February of record snowfall for the month in the past 2-3 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Folks, I'm a little disgruntled by the "IMBY Snow Wishes." You do realize that 6-8 inches of snow along with winds to 40 knts would knock out power for millions again? Heavy snow + 70% foliage + jerry-rigged power lines + winds = possible disaster for same areas just hit by Sandy. Honestly, I could not create a worse scenario in my mind other than a major freezing rain event. Idk about 70% a lot of leaves blew off with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The warm seclusion and 900 hPa wind speeds on the NAM WRF make this thing look more like a tropical entity than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Folks, I'm a little disgruntled by the "IMBY Snow Wishes." You do realize that 6-8 inches of snow along with winds to 40 knts would knock out power for millions again? Heavy snow + 70% foliage + jerry-rigged power lines + winds = possible disaster for same areas just hit by Sandy. Honestly, I could not create a worse scenario in my mind other than a major freezing rain event. If Sandy never happened, then I would be ecstatic at the prospects of a early November snowfall, however; because of Sandy this is exactly what I didn't want happening. I don't know about the whole snow on foliage/trees though, the majority are pretty bare, but any heavy wet snowfall will cause additional problems. The winds and coastal flooding are even bigger concerns though, plus what about the ground getting more saturated. Wouldn't that make it easier for any weakened trees to topple over with a wetter ground and gusts up to 50 mph or more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Oh btw someone needs to change the thread description "primary threats are rain and wind". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Anyone who wanted Sandy to happen has zero right talk. Just throwing that out. Meanwhile this is way OT people. Let's see if the GFS can give us a little dump with the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I live in a town that is adjacent to East Brunswick. Please go outside and look at your trees' foliage. They are certainly not bare and there is probably 60-70% of leaves still on the trees. Regardless of foliage, there are many weakend trees. In my area, there is probably an equal number of uprooted trees as there are trees that simply snapped at the base. If Sandy never happened, then I would be ecstatic at the prospects of a early November snowfall, however; because of Sandy this is exactly what I didn't want happening. I don't know about the whole snow on foliage/trees though, the majority are pretty bare, but any heavy wet snowfall will cause additional problems. The winds and coastal flooding are even bigger concerns though, plus what about the ground getting more saturated. Wouldn't that make it easier for any weakened trees to topple over with a wetter ground and gusts up to 50 mph or more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I have no power anyway, most of the trees are bare due to Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I am not being critical of the NWS , I did think not posting a hurricane warning last week was wrong , but a WWA is not enough of a warning to people in the elevated areas of NWNJ and the lower hudson valley where models throw .75 to 1 inch of QPF into low and mid 30`s air . These people hav no power and think that those places could get a plowable snow , I thnk it would be prudent to at least give them a better heads up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 18z GFS coming in wetter and slightly closer to the coast. Still looking cold enough for frozen, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 18z GFS coming in wetter and slightly closer to the coast. Still looking cold enough for frozen, however. Drier. EDIT: at least while cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Rather odd precipitation shield on the gfs given the strength of the low, its position, I would think it would have a more solid precip field sort of like the Nam but a bit drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The water in and around NYC is in the upper 50`s ,so you can see how any easterly component at the mid levels completley shatters your chance to snow at the coast , This storm is still a 40 mph wind maker and a cold rain for NYC . Thats going to spell real trouble for those without shelter in the coastal communities, as well as people who still hav no power while knocking out a little more . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think that this would be the first time that Central Park picked up more than a trace of snow in November since 89. November 1995 had 2.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Idk about 70% a lot of leaves blew off with Sandy. Exactly, maybe 20% foliage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 November 1995 had 2.9" You're alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You're alive! Too busy to hang out here all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Too busy to hang out here all the time. I think the last time I saw you here on a regular basis I didn't even have a kid. Now the puppet has one too! Craziness. Hope all is going well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Are temps forecast to rise in the morning hours?? Cause it seems like temps are dropping quickly here, now down to 37 while CPK already at 38... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Are temps forecast to rise in the morning hours?? Cause it seems like temps are dropping quickly here, now down to 37 while CPK already at 38... For snow lovers this is about the best case scenario you can ask for in a marginal setup. Skies will be clear through mid-late evening allowing radiational cooling and then the mid-high level decks settle in before sunrise preventing any major warming before the precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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