Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM further east a bit more white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM likes snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 All out weenie run whole area crushed save for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Mt. Holly briefing - Calling for gusts of 55-65MPH likely a long with moderate coastal flooding. States that Severe coastal flooding is possible. I tend to disagree but they are the ones with the advanced met degrees. They also noted how the model trends have shifted back towards the coast today. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE036.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Paste thump for NJ on the NAM. Pretty sweet run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM Precip total through 36 hrs, mostly white. If that happens, we would need Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Wow NAM just ran wild. NAM Precip total through 36 hrs, mostly white. If that happens, we would need Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yeesh....widespread 5-10" for most of NJ taken verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 18z NAM precip totals 1.5"+ from Sandy Hook and South Shore of LI south. ~ 1" for KNYC. ~0.75"-1.00" for most of northern NJ. Comes down hard for awhile as well. hr 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 the latter part of the qpf is warm, verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 How are the winds for NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 the latter part of the qpf is warm, verbatim... Mostly frozen though. Flip flopping won't stop. Nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The NAM has very strong WAA above 900 MB so sleet would become an issue especially coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Winds in the lowest 0-30mb are over 45-50kts for many areas. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The NAM has very strong WAA above 900 MB so sleet would become an issue especially coast. Front end dump followed by a changover at the coast. Almost all snow for interior sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The NAM has very strong WAA above 900 MB so sleet would become an issue especially coast. This isnt good. You have wet snow and temps on the rise as the storm ends with strong winds? Thats going to make wet snow even heavier adding w.e drizzle falls as the storm is occluding. Not good for keeping trees around. Power outages round 2 for NJ? I think so. Not targetting you at all, however just a general statement to any naysayers about this storm... If your going to post in this sense, your actually painting quite an uglier picture as opposed to just snow all the way thru. Watch as you get light rain after heavy wet snow, just watch how much heavier that snow becomes and how much trees begin to fall. Dont forget we just had hurricane force wind gusts blow thru the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Front end dump followed by a changover at the coast. Almost all snow for interior sections. Even MMU warms above freezing over 900 mb at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Even MMU warms above freezing over 900 mb at night. We will see, even though the NAM favors mostly snow IMBY it doesn't have all that much model support at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 We will see, even though the NAM favors mostly snow IMBY it doesn't have all that much model support at this time. The euro to some extent, just less extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Not good at all: URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 322 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012 ...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK CITY...AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT... ...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE... CTZ009>012-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-070430- /O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0004.121107T1100Z-121108T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0003.121107T1900Z-121108T0900Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 322 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT...HUDSON COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY. * HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS. * WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...AS WELL AS MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The 18Z NAM 24 hours or less before decent precip events always tends to overcrank the QPF, I've noticed this since its ETA days so I'd definitely slice those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This isnt good. You have wet snow and temps on the rise as the storm ends with strong winds? Thats going to make wet snow even heavier adding w.e drizzle falls as the storm is occluding. Not good for keeping trees around. Power outages round 2 for NJ? I think so. Not targetting you at all, however just a general statement to any naysayers about this storm... If your going to post in this sense, your actually painting quite an uglier picture as opposed to just snow all the way thru. Watch as you get light rain after heavy wet snow, just watch how much heavier that snow becomes and how much trees begin to fall. Dont forget we just had hurricane force wind gusts blow thru the area. This run of the NAM is bad for wind here with 50- 60 mph gusts from the city terminals east and 70 mph out near the South Fork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The 18Z NAM 24 hours or less before decent precip events always tends to overcrank the QPF, I've noticed this since its ETA days so I'd definitely slice those numbers. But it does have support from a couple other short term models, like the RGEM, SREFS and MM5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The 18Z NAM 24 hours or less before decent precip events always tends to overcrank the QPF, I've noticed this since its ETA days so I'd definitely slice those numbers. I think there is pretty good model agreement QPF is north of an inch the issue is what does it fall as and where . I just hav a hard time seeing snow accumulate all the way to the coast , but if it deepens enough then i guess it could . Looke like the models wana make it snow at some point , does someone eventually get put under a WSW . Have to alert people that its possible now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Not that it means much but here is my forecast for tomorrow night (Putnam County ~50 miles N of NYC) Snow along with gusty winds at times. Low 32F. Winds N at 25 to 35 mph. Snow accumulating 5 to 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Please happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The 18Z NAM 24 hours or less before decent precip events always tends to overcrank the QPF, I've noticed this since its ETA days so I'd definitely slice those numbers. Completely agree, 18z NAM is notorious for it. Probably cut it by about 15% and you have an accurate number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 But it does have support from a couple other short term models, like the RGEM, SREFS and MM5. I think that this would be the first time that Central Park picked up more than a trace of snow in November since 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You said the same thing about Sandy in reguards to wind speeds at the surface. Why always make stuff seem like its nothing until you get into the obs thread and post "Wow, I cant believe this. " This is what he does and he never admits he is wrong or hold his previous calls accountable. He will, however, point out when he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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