Potential Storm 11/7-11/8

[Ericjcrash]

Euro track/cold would probably argue frozen precip, although I think it is under done with precip

Thanks. Need that CCB to come in while it still has life left.

[NaoPos]

From about Belmar to York,and the lower 5 SE pa counties, .5-.75"..more SE

.75" line starts about 10 miles into Nj towards SJ

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Thanks. Need that CCB to come in while it still has life left.

nah man.....we need the phase to happen early or have the disturbance over the plains kick the system E. we DO NOT need or want a wrapped up juicy system bringing high wind and rain to the area. we have plenty of time over the next couple of months for wishing big snows, now is not the time. lets think of others and not just ourselves for a change #sandyrelief

[IsentropicLift]

nah man.....we need the phase to happen early or have the disturbance over the plains kick the system E. we DO NOT need or want a wrapped up juicy system bringing high wind and rain to the area. we have plenty of time over the next couple of months for wishing big snows, now is not the time. lets think of others and not just ourselves for a change #sandyrelief

You do realize that no matter how much we wish for snow or wish for a miss it has no bearing on what will actually happen?

It's best to just digest the models for what they are and pick up any last minute trends. The chances for a complete miss seem to be diminishing.

[Nikolai]

ECMWF looks like it would imply embedded convection as the precipitation begins, with possible very heavy rates for those under convection. TSSN?

[SnoSki14]

So much for yesterday's east trend, looks probable that we will get a hit from this although the intensity of the low, how much precip, and the track to some degree remains in question with the storm only a day or less away.

The biggest concern for coastal flooding and wind are still in question somewhat. Just how strong will the winds really be, how much mixing will we have, and how bad will the coastal flooding be. I doubt we see widespread 60+ mph gusts, which would be extremely dangerous but any gusts over 40-45 mph can cause some damage with the current condition of the tristate area.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

You do realize that no matter how much we wish for snow or wish for a miss it has no bearing on what will actually happen?

It's best to just digest the models for what they are and pick up any last minute trends. The chances for a complete miss seem to be diminishing.

I never knew that....

but wishing for SN now is just retarded no matter how slice it. In the heart of winter we all have are biases and reasons for wanting or not wanting snows so posts like this are useless and irrelevant. but lets be mindful right now even in discussion threads....its all that im trying to point out.

[rossi]

So much for yesterday's east trend, looks probable that we will get a hit from this although the intensity of the low, how much precip, and the track to some degree remains in question with the storm only a day or less away.

The biggest concern for coastal flooding and wind are still in question somewhat. Just how strong will the winds really be, how much mixing will we have, and how bad will the coastal flooding be. I doubt we see widespread 60+ mph gusts, which would be extremely dangerous but any gusts over 40-45 mph can cause some damage with the current condition of the tristate area.

So does the Euro gives us any ideas as to wind speeds 30 miles west of the NJ coast?

Rossi

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I only get the euro in 24hr increments, what happens between 24-48hrs? looking like a long event at any rate since it takes 24hrs for it to go from off the VA coast to E of LI.

[IsentropicLift]

So much for yesterday's east trend, looks probable that we will get a hit from this although the intensity of the low, how much precip, and the track to some degree remains in question with the storm only a day or less away.

The biggest concern for coastal flooding and wind are still in question somewhat. Just how strong will the winds really be, how much mixing will we have, and how bad will the coastal flooding be. I doubt we see widespread 60+ mph gusts, which would be extremely dangerous but any gusts over 40-45 mph can cause some damage with the current condition of the tristate area.

Unless the winds end up coming out of the SE or E which doesn't look likely at this point coastal flooding should be limited. Astronomically we are at a low tide cycle and you won't see the tremendous push of water that you had with Sandy.

The biggest concern would be power outages rather than damaging coastal flooding. In some areas, there is simply nothing left on the beach to destroy, it's already gone.

[bluewave]

The Euro would be the best case for winds with most spots only meeting advisory and not warning criteria.

SE Suffolk could get close to warning levels though. The thing to watch for higher winds would be a track

closer to the coast on tonight's run.

[IsentropicLift]

I never knew that....

but wishing for SN now is just retarded no matter how slice it. In the heart of winter we all have are biases and reasons for wanting or not wanting snows so posts like this are useless and irrelevant. but lets be mindful right now even in discussion threads....its all that im trying to point out.

You're wishcasting, pure and simple.

I don't want to wish any harm to anyone or harm to property, but I call it like it is. If god forbid we get a Sandy redux in the near future, you'll have plenty of folks on here wish casting for a miss and you'll have the hardcore weather geeks such as myself excited at the prospect of seeing more extreme weather. We realize that we can't control it, so we just sit back and enjoy whatever Mother nature sends our way.

[CooL]

Euro is beautiful. Very cold. Probably 2-4" for a lot of people..

[IsentropicLift]

Euro is beautiful. Very cold. Probably 2-4" for a lot of people..

Speaking of which, they need to hoist WWA shortly north and west of the city.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

my parents house in middlesex county NJ still has power lines and telephone poles down in their driveway and adjacent road. numerous trees are also weakened around the neighborhood so any wind gusts will do plenty of damage. it wont only halt the recovery efforts but push it back even further.

[IsentropicLift]

my parents house in middlesex county NJ still has power lines and telephone poles down in their driveway and adjacent road. numerous trees are also weakened around the neighborhood so any wind gusts will do plenty of damage. it wont only halt the recovery efforts but push it back even further.

Like I was saying, power outages are the main threat. You're not going to get major coastal flooding with an offshore flow.

[jm1220]

Like I was saying, power outages are the main threat. You're not going to get major coastal flooding with an offshore flow.

There is a very long fetch to generate big waves, and in many places the barriers to flooding from the beaches are gone. Coastal flooding is absolutely a threat here. In Long Beach, the protective sand dunes have largely been either pushed inland or washed away.

[IsentropicLift]

There is a very long fetch to generate big waves, and in many places the barriers to flooding from the beaches are gone. Coastal flooding is absolutely a threat here. In Long Beach, the protective sand dunes have largely been either pushed inland or washed away.

The winds are blowing offshore though, that is the key. If this thing took more of a NW or westerly jog and the flow turned around that would be a different story. You will see some coastal flooding, but nothing like what you saw with Sandy.

[CooL]

until life changing damages happen to you...which then you'll change your tune.

i respect your points though....

You are getting mad at people's opinions on this, probably not the right place to do so because most of us like extreme weather. Whether you want it OTS or you want a foot of plastering snow tomorrow like me, its not gonna change anything. Go with the flow

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Like I was saying, power outages are the main threat. You're not going to get major coastal flooding with an offshore flow.

you are underplaying the coastal flooding impact. it might not be "major" per say......but damaging to many locals.

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING

THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK HARBOR...THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BACK

BAYS...THE OCEAN SHORES OF NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...AND

PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...AROUND 3 FEET.

* BEACH EROSION...LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FEET ON TOP OF

ANY SURGE COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION AND

OVERWASH.

* TIMING...AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE EARLY WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON AND AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE

COASTAL STORM...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR

ACROSS MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. LOCALLY MAJOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR

IN PLACES DUE TO CHANGES TO UNDERWATER SLOPES AND/OR LOSS OF

PROTECTIVE DUNES BOTH CAUSED BY SANDY. WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF

VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR BASEMENTS IS POSSIBLE...HAMPERING

RECOVERY EFFORTS.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE

TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WATER

LEVELS MAY NOT RECEDE MUCH BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH TIDES.

* AT SANDY HOOK... NEW JERSEY (SANDY HOOK BAY) HIGH TIDE OCCURS

AT 118 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5 TO

8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 212

AM THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.0 FEET ABOVE

MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT SEASIDE HEIGHTS... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS

AT 1248 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL 7.0 TO 7.5

FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 142 AM

THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE

MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT ATLANTIC CITY... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS

AT 101 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5

FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 157 AM

THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE

MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT CAPE MAY... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 135

PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 8.0 TO 8.5 FEET

ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 231 AM

THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.0 FEET ABOVE

MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT BREAKWATER HARBOR... DELAWARE (DELAWARE BAY) HIGH TIDE

OCCURS AT 221 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR

7.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 302

AM THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET

ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT REHOBOTH BEACH... DELAWARE (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT

133 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET

ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 207 AM

THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET

ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS... ALONG DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG

RARITAN BAY OCCURS LATER THAN THE HIGH TIDE ON THE OCEANFRONT.

* SEAS...WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE ALONG THE COAST ARE

EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE. WAVE HEIGHTS ON

DELAWARE BAY SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

* IMPACTS...NUMEROUS ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL MINOR TO

MODERATE PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. THE ELEVATED TIDES WILL

HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON RECOVERY EFFORTS. THE TIDES AND THE

WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH

EROSION.

[CooL]

If we get anything more than a slushy inch there is going to be lots of tree damage again. Lots of loose branches.. And it will be windy

[CooL]

12z

[Dsnowx53]

We like snow. That's why we post here.

The more likely alternative would be that the storm moves even closer to the coast, we get flooded with more warm air, the winds get stronger for a lot more people, and the coastal flooding gets a lot worse. No one wants that.

Of course, OTS is the "safest" scenario for everyone involved, but the scenario in which our areas get snow is a much safer scenario for the people greatest affected by Sandy than what the models were showing a few days ago.

So the fact that we've trended from the all rain scenario to one where we can pull off some snow is probably a good thing.

[earthlight]

Here's to hoping the NMM does not happen. Hammers the NJ Shore and LI with very strong onshore winds for a long time as the storm sits just offshore.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/COMPRAD4_12z/wloop.html

[bluewave]

SYSTEMS MERGING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

NOR'EASTER MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST

=========================================

PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS COMPROMISE WITH BELOW AVERAGE

CONFIDENCE

SINCE LAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FROM A

SOLUTION WHICH SHOWED ONE LARGE, PHASED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH

TO A PATTERN SHOWING GREATER SEPARATION ALOFT/MORE STREAMS OF THE

WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, WHICH HAS CAUSED A SURFACE LOW

TRACK WHICH HAS WAVERED FROM FAIRLY OFFSHORE (THEN INTO MAINE) TO

A MORE COASTAL TRACK BACK TO A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK (INCLUDING

MAINE) OVER THE PAST SIX DAYS. BINARY/FUJIWARA INTERACTION IS

PLAYING A LARGE ROLE WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM WHICH DROPS

CONFIDENCE TO BELOW AVERAGE AS THIS TYPE OF INTERACTION CAN CREATE

MODERATE TO LARGE RUN-TO-RUN AND DAY-TO-DAY DIFFERENCES IN THE

GUIDANCE UNTIL THE PROCESS IS UNDERWAY.

THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SIMILAR SPREAD WITH

THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE 12Z UKMET SHOWING THE QUICKEST/MOST

EASTERLY SOLUTION WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY

TRACK FOR THIS CYCLONE. THERE IS NO STABLE FEATURE IN THE

NORTHERN STREAM TO HELP DETERMINE ITS LATITUDE IN A TELECONNECTION

SENSE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM LOOKS

PROGRESSIVE. DEPTH-WISE, ITS TRACK NEAR THE GULF STREAM INTO

WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A FAIRLY LOW PRESSURE, ULTIMATELY

BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 980S HPA (BUT WELL SHY OF SANDY'S VERY LOW

PRESSURE). A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS (WITH A SOMEWHAT

DEEPER CENTRAL PRESSURE) REMAINS THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WITH

BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

[Dsnowx53]

Here's to hoping the NMM does not happen. Hammers the NJ Shore and LI with very strong onshore winds for a long time as the storm sits just offshore.

http://www.meteo.psu..._12z/wloop.html

Wow. That would be bad. It really takes on a warm seclusion type look as well...look at its "eye".

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

The winds are blowing offshore though, that is the key. If this thing took more of a NW or westerly jog and the flow turned around that would be a different story. You will see some coastal flooding, but nothing like what you saw with Sandy.

I have to agree. Just look at boxing day!! Mega winds non, existent coastal flooding. Wind direction has everything to due with coastal flooding. (This is no boxing day but no Sandy either) Winds here will have enough of E component to cause minor rises. On the other hand though like jm said coastal barriers (dunes/walls) are gone and the elevation of the beach is waaaaay down so a run of the mill minor event can still send water into the streets hampering any recovery effort.

As for the winds as bluewave said we may only see a advisory level event. Again like minor coastal flooding not normally a big deal. But when you have crews out climbing poles and in bucket trucks they are going to have to stop working in said conditions hampering the return of electric in places still suffering.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Here's to hoping the NMM does not happen. Hammers the NJ Shore and LI with very strong onshore winds for a long time as the storm sits just offshore.

http://www.meteo.psu..._12z/wloop.html

woah. the hook to the NW and W as it occludes is concerning....deff worst case scenario.

[bluewave]

I have to agree. Just look at boxing day!! Mega winds non, existent coastal flooding. Wind direction has everything to due with coastal flooding. (This is no boxing day but no Sandy either) Winds here will have enough of E component to cause minor rises. On the other hand though like jm said coastal barriers (dunes/walls) are gone and the elevation of the beach is waaaaay down so a run of the mill minor event can still send water into the streets hampering any recovery effort.

As for the winds as bluewave said we may only see a advisory level event. Again like minor coastal flooding not normally a big deal. But when you have crews out climbing poles and in bucket trucks they are going to have to stop working in said conditions hampering the return of electric in places still suffering.

0z runs will probably tell the tale on advisory or warning criteria winds. All the 0z Euro would have to do is tick a little

closer to the coast t for a HWW.

[bluewave]

Wow. That would be bad. It really takes on a warm seclusion type look as well...look at its "eye".

The satellite would look like February 2006.