dbc Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The northerly and stable wind component over land (areas that will see snow) will be the saving grace there. The gusty winds aloft are much more likely to mix down over the immediate shores with a NE wind direction (still not good). This includes NYC Metro doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 this is shaping up to be a terrible start to the cold season. usually Id say its a superb start, give me a split flow blocking pattern all winter, but not when so many are still recovering. i really hope the euro ticks E, saving the coast from the highest winds possible. though looking on WV loops, this is really digging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This includes NYC Metro doesn't it? I would lean more towards Long Island especially the east end and the NJ Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 FWIW, 12Z NOGAPS is a swing and a miss for the entire area, except probably far eastern LI. The actual low track isn't that far off the benchmark, but the QPF fields are weak and disorganized. The lowest the pressure gets is 1000mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 this is shaping up to be a terrible start to the cold season. usually Id say its a superb start, give me a split flow blocking pattern all winter, but not when so many are still recovering. i really hope the euro ticks E, saving the coast from the highest winds possible. Im a HUGE snow lover but I love New York and its people more. Not torn here. Just let this one go out to sea. Ill wait a month for my snow till everyone has had time to breathe, Lord knows we need it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Im a HUGE snow lover but I love New York and its people more. Not torn here. Just let this one go out to sea. Ill wait a month for my snow till everyone has had time to breathe, Lord knows we need it! No love for those in NJ? The Jersey shore needs relief as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 we need the disturbance over IA to kick to system E and not phase..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 FWIW, 12Z NOGAPS is a swing and a miss for the entire area, except probably far eastern LI. The actual low track isn't that far off the benchmark, but the QPF fields are weak and disorganized. The lowest the pressure gets is 1000mb. NOGAPS is one of the most useless models out there, throw it in the trash. It's time now for the shorter range models like the RGEM in my view. What's sad is that some headway is finally being made in Long Beach, since power in a few areas was turned on today (although I also read that so far 10% of homes inspected by the city's buildings department are being condemned and 50% more need electrical work before being re-powered, there's a green=good, yellow=needs work, red=condemned grade scale). This could undo all of it and create even more flooding problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 FWIW, 12Z NOGAPS is a swing and a miss for the entire area, except probably far eastern LI. The actual low track isn't that far off the benchmark, but the QPF fields are weak and disorganized. The lowest the pressure gets is 1000mb. Thats exactly what you want to see right now if you want snow, the NOGAPS is falling right into its bias...if anything it may be too far west too feel comfortable in NYC because the NAM/GFS may not be far enough west just looking at the NOGAPS and its usual bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Im a HUGE snow lover but I love New York and its people more. Not torn here. Just let this one go out to sea. Ill wait a month for my snow till everyone has had time to breathe, Lord knows we need it! for sure...this is a totally waste of winter energy. I would not care for a 2ft blizzard right now let alone a couple of wet inches..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 For those telling me about the NOGAPS, this isn't my first day at the rodeo I was just simply pointing it out and I'm aware of its bias and it's fairly poor skill. Despite the fact that it schooled the GFS with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Thats exactly what you want to see right now if you want snow, the NOGAPS is falling right into its bias...if anything it may be too far west too feel comfortable in NYC because the NAM/GFS may not be far enough west just looking at the NOGAPS and its usual bias. Great post. It's a useful model when its bias is considered and compared to other models. Hopefully other can pick up from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 12z GEFS: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12036.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The Nogaps was great with sandy but then once within 48 hrs it shot sandy way to the east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 we need the disturbance over IA to kick to system E and not phase..... A much more likely scenario would be a quicker phase. That would equal the mid-atlantic getting hammered, and occlusion would already be underway at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The Nogaps was great with sandy but then once within 48 hrs it shot sandy way to the east . It was great when it was thinking it was a tropical system, as soon as the model started picking up on the extratropical transition its east bias started to kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The Nogaps was great with sandy but then once within 48 hrs it shot sandy way to the east . At one point it was the only model in the same camp as the Euro. For a time the GGEM was alos in that camp before it also shot east. With all due respect, the GFS had Sandy around Cape Cod less than 48 hours out, while almost all the other guidance was clearly much further SW. I'm not bashing the GFS, it certainly has been the better model at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The combination of some mid level dry air working in after the initial thump...and the models hinting at a warm layer ~900 hPa suggests a flip to snow during heavy precip and return to rain during the lighter stuff. So long as the storm doesn't come west with huge precip amounts, the main story should continue to be the wind along the coast and the potential for gusts to 60 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 A much more likely scenario would be a quicker phase. That would equal the mid-atlantic getting hammered, and occlusion would already be underway at our latitude. yes, good point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Very tricky forecast especially in terms of actual accumulating snows. Conditions are much less favorable than they would be even two weeks from now. I feel like 1-3" is not a bad call. This is your pretty typical north and west of the city event, the keys are how far NW do you have to be, and how much QPF will fall in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I have a hard time believing more that a slushy inch will fall away from interior NJ and that might even be a long shot there with the fringe of precipitation sitting over them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Getting the lift into the area is going to be huge..the warmer models are less organized in that regard. The forecast is a total mess...I could easily see 3-5 hours of SN with a slushy inch at EWR or 3-5 hours of a flip between SN/RN depending on periods of stronger lift and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 No love for those in NJ? The Jersey shore needs relief as well! we are ONE! hang in there all and hopefully willget lucky and the high to the north turns out to be stronger and oushes it out 100 miles 2 the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 well now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 ukie is way E and late with the phase, fyi...though I cant remember the last time it was useful for EC systems during the cold months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro is a hit through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro is a hit through 36 Some more details please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Just inside bm with 1032mb high to north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro is northwest of last nights run and brings the CCB into the area between 30 and 36 hours..not heavy at all but definitely not a graze either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro track/cold would probably argue frozen precip, although I think it is under done with precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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