Sundog Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It appears to mature/phase/whatever a tad too early for this to be a primarily snow event, and the antecedent airmass wasn't as cold this run. Warm air aloft is able to advect into our area. Most of us still see some snow, however. A slightly later phase = stronger CCB at our latitude. This thing feels like its going to go right down to the wire with all the slight differences from run to run from all the models. Huge differences in sensible weather for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 SREF's have the strongest winds out in Suffolk with gusts probably 60-70 mph and 50-60 mph Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 The 12z GFS at hour 9 has a bit more CAD than the 06z GFS. It also appears to be slightly weaker with the SLP off of the SE Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This thing feels like its going to go right down to the wire with all the slight differences from run to run from all the models. Huge differences in sensible weather for sure. Yeah. It might even come down to nowcasting, meaning it would come down to who sits in the heavier banding vs just lighter precip. We're going to need the dynamics to overcome the WAA aloft and initially warm BL. Though I don't think our BL problems are really that bad considering how DRY this airmass is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 This run is coming in quite a bit colder than the 06z GFS. Still a touch weaker with this system and a tick east of the 06z GFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 About 10-20 miles east of the 06z GFS at hour 24. Precipitation now moving into coastal NJ and NYC at hour 24 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 Heavy precipitation spreads over the area at hour 33. Probably snow at this point in time. Minimal differences with the 06z GFS in terms of the low placement and intensity now. Still a touch cooler than the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The GFS quickly brings in a warm layer above 900 mb with a changeover to sleet like the end of october last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The RGEM is a paste thump for most of NJ and even into NYC for a period. This should wake people up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Is the RGEM faster or have i just not noticed the speed the last day or 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The RGEM is a paste thump for most of NJ and even into NYC for a period. This should wake people up. Slp is much deeper than the gfs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think they at least need some WWA for the afternoon packages, assuming the 12z trend continues with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Is the RGEM faster or have i just not noticed the speed the last day or 2? Maybe a hair faster but most models have had the best forcing between 21 and 06z and the RGEM seems decently in agreement with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Maybe a hair faster but most models have had the best forcing between 21 and 06z and the RGEM seems decently in agreement with that. I feel like its between 15z and 00z now, though. Once you get past 00z, the warm air above the BL begins to creep in. I'm really not too concerned about the BL, to be quite honest. When saturated, our BL will cool readily considering how dry this airmass is. But sleet and waning dynamics does concern me, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The GFS is worse for the winds than the NAM with 60 mph or higher gusts closer to NYC Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I feel like its between 15z and 00z now, though. Once you get past 00z, the warm air above the BL begins to creep in. I'm really not too concerned about the BL, to be quite honest. When saturated, our BL will cool readily considering how dry this airmass is. But sleet and waning dynamics does concern me, though. That's what happened at the end of October last year with the models underestimating the WAA above 900 mb and breaks between the bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Most of the trees that came down during Sandy in my area were pine trees. Makes sense, as they don't drop leafs and are tall and thin, thus making them more susceptible to the wind. As I look out my office window in Ramsey, I would say more than 75% of the trees have at least some foliage left. A few inches of wet snow compounded by gusts to storm force is going to put a lot of folks back in the dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The GFS is worse for the winds than the NAM with 60 mph or higher gusts closer to NYC Metro. With the jog west most models have now brought back the higher winds which hug the coast during the height of the storm...not an exciting thing to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The GFS is worse for the winds than the NAM with 60 mph or higher gusts closer to NYC Metro. The winds and fetch for the waves/surge is what we precisely DO NOT need for coastal areas. I know for a fact that most beaches are practically defenseless after being ravaged by Sandy and flooding will be a major concern once more, along with new power outages and downed trees. Debris flying around will also be a concern. These stronger/tucked in solutions are horrible news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS sounding around NYC seems to suggest any frozen more likely sleet than snow, with a very small near saturated layer anywhere near -10ºC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 With the jog west most models have now brought back the higher winds which hug the coast during the height of the storm...not an exciting thing to see. The winds and fetch for the waves/surge is what we precisely DO NOT need for coastal areas. I know for a fact that most beaches are practically defenseless after being ravaged by Sandy and flooding will be a major concern once more, along with new power outages and downed trees. Debris flying around will also be a concern. These stronger/tucked in solutions are horrible news. Agreed. This would be the absolute worst time for stronger winds further west. We'll see if the Euro comes in more like the NAM or GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 since February 2010 trees in the area are taking a beating...I made a post about this in September 2010...It hasn't stopped... http://www.easternus...year-for-trees/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Agreed. This would be the absolute worst time for stronger winds further west. We'll see if the Euro comes in more like the NAM or GFS. How far west from the coast will winds above 30 mph or above result? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Precip types and snow amounts, mostly depend on how early it comes and how heavy it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 How far west from the coast will winds above 30 mph or above result? Rossi It depends on the exact track. I would like to see what the Euro comes up with in a little while first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Will the HWW's hold or will they take them down to advisory levels for many? Obviously some places could likely see gusts up to or over 60 mph but there are many areas under the HWW where gusts could be lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The RGEM also has some very strong 10m winds just offshore..and the strongest on land over Eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Heavy wet snow and storm force winds with trees weakened and leaves still on them is not a good combo. Excited to see snow but I don't want to lose power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Heavy wet snow and storm force winds with trees weakened and leaves still on them is not a good combo. Excited to see snow but I don't want to lose power The northerly and stable wind component over land (areas that will see snow) will be the saving grace there. The gusty winds aloft are much more likely to mix down over the immediate shores with a NE wind direction (still not good). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.