SquatchinNY Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Can someone give me a link to the Wright Weather site's HiRes Canadian? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 And colder, but it's an ensemble thing I guess. It's a smoothed mean which is generally why the Minimum SLP with the storm system is generally higher than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It's a smoothed mean which is generally why the Minimum SLP with the storm system is generally higher than the operational. Yeah, but IIRC the ECMENS a few times was even lower (SLP) than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 FWIW, the 18z NAM doesn't show a terribly ridiculous solution at hour 84 like it sometimes has. Has a sub 1008 mb low off of the SE Coast at hour 84. May be overdoing the CAD though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 No real noticeable differences between the 12z and the 18z GFS so far at hour 63 on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 The 18z GFS is quite a bit warmer than the 12z GFS at hour 78. Storm off the SE Coast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 850s are crashing east at hour 90 on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 850s are quite a bit west with the 18z GFS than with the 12z GFS. All rain for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Looking less likely we see any decent snow with this in the nyc metro area. Unless the storm goes way east but that's unlikely. Strong winds and rain will still be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Looking less likely we see any decent snow with this in the nyc metro area. Unless the storm goes way east but that's unlikely. Strong winds and rain will still be a problem I think the models are still having problems with the storm; there was a large shift in track from the 12z GFS which had it southeast of Montauk and more of a snow threat versus the 18z which was more of a coastal hugger. I wouldn't count anything out in the NW suburbs compared to NYC proper which almost never receives accumulating snow in early November. I don't like that the models want to weaken the low, however. The weakening is also more noticeable on the GFS than the 12z ECM so there is disagreement there as well. Lots of time on this one but I would of course favor climo which says snow stays north and west in early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 You have to take into account, though, that a lot of those winds would not mix down. We're not talking about a tropical system with surface pressures of 940-950mb in the area like Sandy. However, a 980mb Nor'easter with a 1025-1030mb high to the north would still produce a windy day...GFS shows 10m winds around 25kts at 96 hours from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Problem is you would be able to mix some of the winds down. The inversion is at 900 mb and the winds below that are strong enough to produce wind gusts up to or over 50 mph. You have to take into account, though, that a lot of those winds would not mix down. We're not talking about a tropical system with surface pressures of 940-950mb in the area like Sandy. However, a 980mb Nor'easter with a 1025-1030mb high to the north would still produce a windy day...GFS shows 10m winds around 25kts at 96 hours from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Problem is you would be able to mix some of the winds down. The inversion is at 900 mb and the winds below that are strong enough to produce wind gusts up to or over 50 mph. Yes, 925mb winds are 70kts+ over NYC and LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Bloomberg said thankfully this storm will not be a tropical storm. Nothing to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Yes, 925mb winds are 70kts+ over NYC and LI: Not to mention we'd probably see more precip with this system aiding the mixing of stronger winds. We REALLY don't need this right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Not to mention we'd probably see more precip with this system aiding the mixing of stronger winds. We REALLY don't need this right now. It definitely looks like a messy situation with heavy rain and winds near 50mph in some of the recovering areas, in addition to the possibility of sleet and snow in the NW suburbs. Some of the models really want to bomb the storm...GFS is near 980mb, GGEM has it at 968mb. I remember some of the 60+ mph wind gusts we had from the Boxing Day Blizzard, so of course it's not unusual to see high winds here during a non-tropical event. Mixing could vary based on the timing of precipitation, and we could still see the models trend towards a lesser pressure gradient. Certainly worrying though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It definitely looks like a messy situation with heavy rain and winds near 50mph in some of the recovering areas, in addition to the possibility of sleet and snow in the NW suburbs. Some of the models really want to bomb the storm...GFS is near 980mb, GGEM has it at 968mb. I remember some of the 60+ mph wind gusts we had from the Boxing Day Blizzard, so of course it's not unusual to see high winds here during a non-tropical event. Mixing could vary based on the timing of precipitation, and we could still see the models trend towards a lesser pressure gradient. Certainly worrying though... I had thought I'd seen the strongest winds ever during that storm (until sandy), windows were rattling. This is pretty worrysome. 980mb would be bad enough nevermind 968!! Is the blocking gone? Can it go OTS? I haven't been paying attention to models since sandy, but I'm going to start now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z GFS goes crazy with the winds over LI. Wind gusts up to 80mph on the east end of LI with sustained winds over the ocean of 65mph. Not sure if I want to believe those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I had thought I'd seen the strongest winds ever during that storm (until sandy), windows were rattling. This is pretty worrysome. 980mb would be bad enough nevermind 968!! Is the blocking gone? Can it go OTS? I haven't been paying attention to models since sandy, but I'm going to start now. There's still a decent amount of blocking in the form of a Hudson Bay block/west based -NAO, although not as much as for Sandy. I guess if we saw a missed phase it could go out to sea but the pattern looks good for a Nor'easter...here's height anomalies at 96 on the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 There's still a decent amount of blocking in the form of a Hudson Bay block/west based -NAO, although not as much as for Sandy. I guess if we saw a missed phase it could go out to sea but the pattern looks good for a Nor'easter...here's height anomalies at 96 on the GFS: Yeah everything im seeing points towards another strong east coast storm and the signals have been there a while now. We usually come out of a -NAO cycle with a big storm. After this the pattern looks much calmer and warmer, so this could be the pattern changer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Bloomberg said thankfully this storm will not be a tropical storm. Nothing to worry about. Did he really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Yes, he did and even worse, he said the flood waters would not rise as fast also because it was not a Hurricane, it was only a Nor'easter Oh, so now he is a meteorologist? This man is making a fool of himself for the world to see. He needs to leave office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Yes, he did and even worse, he said the flood waters would not rise as fast also because it was not a Hurricane, it was only a Nor'easter Truthfully, and if this chart is accurate, then nor'easters do not produce the same surge as tropical systems. I think we all know that is likely true 98% of the time. This is a surge chart for RI, but likely holds for NYC/LI as well. Maybe he meant surge and not "rise as fast"?? He's an idiot, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 What I'm thinking is that this next storm will have a 2-3 foot surge, but will be largely mitigated by the tide cycle. That isn't to say that no additional erosion or flooding won't occur, but IMHO, only the most precarious beaches see impacts from this nor'easter due to SURGE. Winds are another matter entirely, and I could certainly see the greatest impact being some additional wind damage in conjunction with a stoppage in line repairs due to high winds. At least that's how I see this storm shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On November 6, 1953 a large coastal storm impacted the area...9 inches of snow at Bridgeton, NJ and 4.2 inches at Trenton. Winds peaked at 69 mph out of the northeast at Atlantic City. <Bridgeton is down by Delaware Bay for the uninitiated> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 The 00z NAM has a really odd double low at hour 78. Stuff like this can be expected from the NAM in it's Long Range when it is generally less reliable. FWIW, the antecedent airmass is quite cold on the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It would not be wise to expect a favorable airmass for frozen precipitation this time of year away from the high elevations and far interior. Two or three weeks from now would be a different story. Despite the low tide I think the wind, rain, etc will once again be the story if this system does develop like some of the stronger models are hinting at. We're looking at near 70kt 925mb winds in some spots if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 It would not be wise to expect a favorable airmass for frozen precipitation this time of year away from the high elevations and far interior. Two or three weeks from now would be a different story. I agree with this, although the forecast guidance has been waffling pretty considerably with the temperatures in the area, which indicates to me that they still do not have a good grasp on the situation, and there are still quite a bit of possibilities on the table, temperature wise. I think that the NW Burbs into NW NJ have a shot at some initial frozen precipitation in the beginning before changing over to rain. Though, as you said, since it is early November, it is safer when forecasting to forecast on the conservative side for any chances of frozen precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Nam is still working out the kinks, it should get a better grip on the storm tomorrow night or sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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