Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 00z GGEM well east. Little or no precipitation west of NYC. Darn. This went from real bad to not as bad to good to now maybe a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Darn. This went from real bad to not as bad to good to now maybe a non event. You can add the RGEM to that list as well, although it brings some precipitation further to the west. Still cautious about this threat, although I'd be overjoyed if it slid east. Our infrastructure is still very fragile following Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The trend with more separation between the north and southern streams continued with the 0z GFS - considering this is in the short range, and the models also initialized the northern s/w differently than what they had 24 hours ago for this time, could be a very real possibility the models are actually pulling a last minute shift. If this is actually the case, the only time I remember something like this in the few recent years is from April fools 2011. Nothing's certain yet, but these trends are certainly not good for the stronger and further west storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm glad it's trending east, this is one of the few times where I don't mind it missing us. We don't need the additional wind damage or coastal flooding along with rain to a very fragile infrastructure. The electric grid is just getting back to normal though many people still don't have power, there's a lot of weakened trees and branches. Let it go east, I'll wait till December for a real snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro rolling in. Will know in about 10 mins what it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Regardless of the impacts, the Euro going east would be shocking..it's shown the same solution for a bunch of runs in a row now even into it's deadly range at 72-90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro going ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Abandon ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Glancing blow through 48, not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 is this thing EAST of even SNE now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Why can't every storm be as easy to forecast as Sandy? We just spent so much time lauding modern computer models with their accuracy and agreement. Sheesh! 2+2 should equal 4! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The Euro is definitely not out to sea, as it still brings some moderate precip into the area, but it's nothing remotely close to the 12z or earlier runs. Pretty remarkable trends over the last 24 hours and even the Euro fell victim to it. Imagine the mayhem if this was a month from now. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Light precip into the area. Maybe a few flakes lol Models have really backed off the strong low idea, and now most of them are weaker and east. The phase isn't really impressive anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Central NJ especially the coast gets a nice event still..and even a little inverted trough at 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Central NJ especially the coast gets a nice event still..and even a little inverted trough at 60 hrs. I put 0 confidence in EURO at this range after how badly if shifted and all the other models are dry. Euro still to moist probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 is this thing EAST of even SNE now? South and east, yes. It looks bizarre but the surface low occludes so even though it tracks near the BM, SNE gets very little precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 South and east, yes. It looks bizarre but the surface low occludes so even though it tracks near the BM, SNE gets very little precipitation. How much precip for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The Euro is definitely not out to sea, as it still brings some moderate precip into the area, but it's nothing remotely close to the 12z or earlier runs. Pretty remarkable trends over the last 24 hours and even the Euro fell victim to it. Imagine the mayhem if this was a month from now. Yikes. I'm not surprised, I know I jokingly mentioned the ots idea with you earlier. Although we have a nice cold dome of HP the ridging over the top imo is weak and transient. Also don't think the location of the block is ideal. With the trough remaining broad and open, the lp is able to slide east before the phase occurs too late to pull it back west. Seems like a timing issue between the two pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 How much precip for NYC? Hard to tell on my phone but just from a broad perspective definitely less than .5" probably nearer to .3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Hard to tell on my phone but just from a broad perspective definitely less than .5" probably nearer to .3" Wow. This went all anemic on us. CApture sooner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's been trending further offshore colder and weaker for the past 24 hours, maybe it's time to believe we have a trend? I think we do, though of course, do not completely write it off yet. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Now that the models have pretty much shifted east except for the 0z NAM, I wonder what chances are that this somehow trends back stronger and west on Tuesday. Not likely, but it can't be completely ruled out just yet. Either way, this trend is a relief for the coast. There will still probably be some wind and rain but that's still better than a strong noreaster with 65+ mph gusts slamming the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Going to be a long winter then for some. This will happen many times, am I bit surprised though how they all trended so far east given the 24-48 hr window before the storm but remember the boxing day storm rapidly trended in our favor less than 3 days before it occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Going to be a long winter then for some. This will happen many times, am I bit surprised though how they all trended so far east given the 24-48 hr window before the storm but remember the boxing day storm rapidly trended in our favor less than 3 days before it occurred. It's early November...seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 How are the winds and surge on the Euro? And mainly a rain event, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Going to be a long winter then for some. This will happen many times, am I bit surprised though how they all trended so far east given the 24-48 hr window before the storm but remember the boxing day storm rapidly trended in our favor less than 3 days before it occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Going to be a long winter then for some. This will happen many times, am I bit surprised though how they all trended so far east given the 24-48 hr window before the storm but remember the boxing day storm rapidly trended in our favor less than 3 days before it occurred. You mean it's going to be a long winter for you, and you will whine many times, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You mean it's going to be a long winter for you, and you will whine many times, lol. Euro dumps nearly 1" of QPF on coastal NJ so it's not a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You mean it's going to be a long winter for you, and you will whine many times, lol. I'm not whining, I didn't want this storm at all. No sane person whose been affected would want this storm. I'll pass on maybe a slushy inch of snow in early November considering we'll be torching by the weekend anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Hpc 4" probs http://www.hpc.ncep....psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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