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Potential Storm 11/7-11/8

Snow_Miser

By Snow_Miser,
in New York City Metro

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NorthNJwx

NorthNJwx

Posted
Posted

i didn't say that wouldn't be worse, i'm saying that was never the number once concern with this storm. it is a longshot as best given the angle of approach and wind direction and tidal departures. power outages are the number one threat here, and the disruption of restoration to those still without.

In parts of NJ, it absolutely was. OEMs, police forces, etc. in southern coastal NJ have been VERY worried about potential coastal impacts from this storm. Much of the NJ coast saw NNE winds during most of Sandy and still received extreme coastal flooding - you don't always need an E, ENE, or NE wind. Also, I did not mention LI in my post - I don't know what the #1 concern is there, nor did I make any claims to. Bottom line: in NJ, east is better with this system. The quicker the wind direction comes around to an offshore direction down there, the better. The coastal threats far outweigh any potential power outage threats there, I can fully assure you.

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jasonli18t

jasonli18t

Posted
Posted

In parts of NJ, it absolutely was. OEMs, police forces, etc. in southern coastal NJ have been VERY worried about potential coastal impacts from this storm. Much of the NJ coast saw NNE winds during most of Sandy and still received extreme coastal flooding - you don't always need an E, ENE, or NE wind. Also, I did not mention LI in my post - I don't know what the #1 concern is there, nor did I make any claims to. Bottom line: in NJ, east is better with this system. The quicker the wind direction comes around to an offshore direction down there, the better. The coastal threats far outweigh any potential power outage threats there, I can fully assure you.

the destruction caused by sandy was from east, ESE, and SE winds. not sure what you are talking about. for nearly every storm the winds will rotate a bit, but the damage from sandy was the track paralell to the coast, the extreme strength of the storm, and the worst-case-scenario wind fetch. A NNE wind with low tide cycle really doesn't post a big threat IMO. This isn't minimizing the damage, just trying to use science. To say i'm not worried is putting it wrong. I'm saying i don't think it will happen and have tangible reasons why.

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NorthNJwx

NorthNJwx

Posted
Posted

the destruction caused by sandy was from east, ESE, and SE winds. not sure what you are talking about. for nearly every storm the winds will rotate a bit, but the damage from sandy was the track paralell to the coast, the extreme strength of the storm, and the worst-case-scenario wind fetch. A NNE wind with low tide cycle really doesn't post a big threat IMO. This isn't minimizing the damage, just trying to use science. To say i'm not worried is putting it wrong. I'm saying i don't think it will happen and have tangible reasons why.

No - absolutely not in Southern NJ. Look at the data for ACY. NNE winds:

http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA

You are speaking about LI. Yes, Long Island had winds from the SE quadrant. In most of NJ, winds were NE or NNE. Please do some research first next time - I don't post about things I don't know very, very well.

And, yes, NNE winds can and do produce massive tidal flooding issues in the right scenarios - see November 6-7, 1953 in Southern NJ.

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Sunny and Warm

Sunny and Warm

Posted
Posted

I'm gonna go out on a limb and suggest that additional dune breaches in battered coastal communities would be MUCH, MUCH worse than extended power outages somewhere. No comparison.

really though, the dune damage has already been done and the homes behind them damaged as well. Isn't much more a dune breach can do that hasn't already been done.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Lol. This is getting silly, I know those maps are quirky at best and usually exaggerated but this is at the very least entertaining and quickly reminding me of last year. Just to see snow this early again is fun.hotdog.gif

History show there have been a few big snowstorms even out at Cape Hatteras, North Carolina during the winter...and I'd offer that that is just as improbable (if not more so) than a November snowfall in the NYC area....

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NorthNJwx

NorthNJwx

Posted
Posted

really though, the dune damage has already been done and the homes behind them damaged as well. Isn't much more a dune breach can do that hasn't already been done.

Crews are working to rebuild dunes - the dunes being rebuilt, which are, necessarily, still small and weak, could be destroyed IF coastal impacts are severe enough. Coastal towns are restricting access to some areas until after Thurs for EXACTLY this reason - if breaches happen again, more damage will occur. Period. I'm not saying it will happen - I don't think it will - but if it does, it'll be a serious problem.

On LBI specifically, most of the homes behind breached dunes still stand - but these will be the houses in imminent danger if breaches to the temporary dunes were to occur.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Fixed.ee.gif

Since Hatteras averages around an inch of snow per winter and NYC used to average around an inch of snow in November...I thought my comparison was more fitting...but whatever.

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CooL

CooL

Posted
Posted

Would be one of, if not the most remarkable weather scene I've viewed to see the damaged areas of NJ/NY blanketed in snow.

And it's not like it's in fantasy land. We are pretty much inside 48 hrs. 12z euro was definitely snowy even more so than the nam

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NorthNJwx

NorthNJwx

Posted
Posted

As I was saying before being interrupted - prolonged NNE winds would be a problem in SNJ. Winds were absolutely NOT ESE or SE in southern NJ during Sandy, as someone previously claimed:

http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA

That's why this 00z NAM - and the 18z GFS, and the 12z Euro - are encouraging. The wind direction comes around to N/NNW early enough to mitigate coastal flooding.

For those looking for snow, this is also the more viable solution; a low tucked into the coast, ala the earlier Euro and GFS runs, would tend to have too much of an onshore component for snow outside of farther NW/higher elevation areas. Not sure how close the low was to the coast last Oct, but can't expect something as anomalous if it was closer (though that doesn't mean it couldn't happen).

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NorthNJwx

NorthNJwx

Posted
Posted

If the GFS is right this would be great news for the coastal areas ravaged by Sandy. The Euro tonight and tomorrow's 12z Data will tell us whether we deal with a punishing nor'easter or just a glancing blow.

Exactly. These runs are important.

For those unfamiliar with the situation in NJ (again, NJ only - not talking about LI, CT, NYC, or anywhere else), see this: http://www.nj.com/ocean/index.ssf/2012/11/mandatory_evacuation_for_parts_of_brick_ahead_of_nearing_noreaster.html

Mandatory evacuations in hard-hit areas for this upcoming storm. If the earlier Euro/GFS solutions were to pan out, it would be serious. Thankfully, the current trend is away from a serious solution there.

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Wxoutlooksblog

Wxoutlooksblog

Posted
Posted

0z Nam has 7.1 inches of snow for NYC with temps in the low 30's

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Knyc.txt

Taken literally, NAM is about 5" of snow for NYC followed by a frozen mix while GFS is a lighter snowfall but all snow--maybe 1-4" from nw to se. The problem could be the relatively mild ground in so far as holding back amounts but if dynamics were sufficient, maybe not. Also, after so much time of seeing warmer and wetter solutions (on all the models) and with another day and a half to go, we have to be careful about the possibility of this storm possibly being drawn closer to us and moving slower again in tomorrow's runs.

WX/PT

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Storm At Sea

Storm At Sea

Posted
Posted

I agree. I'm doubting tonight's GFS run. I think the NAM is a bit too cold.

Taken literally, NAM is about 5" of snow for NYC followed by a frozen mix while GFS is a lighter snowfall but all snow--maybe 1-4" from nw to se. The problem could be the relatively mild ground in so far as holding back amounts but if dynamics were sufficient, maybe not. Also, after so much time of seeing warmer and wetter solutions (on all the models) and with another day and a half to go, we have to be careful about the possibility of this storm possibly being drawn closer to us and moving slower again in tomorrow's runs.

WX/PT

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