NEG NAO Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Warm air really pushing in now at 51 hours..pretty borderline especially in the city and points east. But this run is definitely west of the 18z run no question about it. The clown maps are lighting up again over NE NJ, even down into Central NJ and into Southeast NY/Southwest CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Significant November snowfalls do not normally bode well for respectable winters. However, if it does in fact snow, I'm not as concerned as it appears that we rebound quickly and remain near average for next week. tomorrow is the anniversary of the 1953 noreaster that gave the NYC area 2-4" of wet snow...That winter had a two week cold and snowy period in January but the rest of the winter saw very little snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Warm air really pushing in now at 51 hours..pretty borderline especially in the city and points east. But this run is definitely west of the 18z run no question about it. The clown maps are lighting up again over NE NJ, even down into Central NJ and into Southeast NY/Southwest CT. This looks a bit stronger and more tucked in than the GFS, perhaps adding wind issues again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like most of nj gets good snow on this run during the 'dump' of precip....before ending as rain with warm air wrapping in and the low weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Through 54 hrs .74 of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 After the initial dump there is warm air flooding almost every level..looks like the NAM has a similar warm seclusion idea to the GFS from a few days ago...so after that initial thump I wouldn't be surprised if there was some serious mid level warming on the forecast soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 After the initial dump there is warm air flooding almost every level..looks like the NAM has a similar warm seclusion idea to the GFS from a few days ago...so after that initial thump I wouldn't be surprised if there was some serious mid level warming on the forecast soundings. John, I'm on my phone right now. Approximately how much of this is frozen for the area, and how much is rain? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 John, I'm on my phone right now. Approximately how much of this is frozen for the area, and how much is rain? Thanks in advance. It will depend greatly on your location... waiting for higher resolution graphics/data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Close to a inch of qpf on 00z nam...(huge grain of salt) sv maps has 2-4 of snow in the metro area....winds look pretty strong on coast this run also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 After the initial dump there is warm air flooding almost every level..looks like the NAM has a similar warm seclusion idea to the GFS from a few days ago...so after that initial thump I wouldn't be surprised if there was some serious mid level warming on the forecast soundings. With the track being east I've seen the models try this before but if you can cool the layer initially unless you've got an 850 low cutting over or west of you it tends to be very hard to get any sort of warming to occur as that initially evaporative cooling as well as the snow on the ground itself can make the boundary layer and mid-levels hard to warm. 12/5/03 is a good example of how the models wanted to warm the mid-layers and boundary layer but the initial blast of snow made it impossible to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The timing is absolutely perfect too...with the majority of the initial thump of precipitation occurring between 21 and 06z...would really be a laugher if there was snow throughout the area from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Add to the fact it will be quite windy, with the worse winds across LI. The timing is absolutely perfect too...with the majority of the initial thump of precipitation occurring between 21 and 06z...would really be a laugher if there was snow throughout the area from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 With the track being east I've seen the models try this before but if you can cool the layer initially unless you've got an 850 low cutting over or west of you it tends to be very hard to get any sort of warming to occur as that initially evaporative cooling as well as the snow on the ground itself can make the boundary layer and mid-levels hard to warm. 12/5/03 is a good example of how the models wanted to warm the mid-layers and boundary layer but the initial blast of snow made it impossible to do. Yeah I can agree with this, but I think the system occluding adds to the problem as the CCB ends up decaying a few hours after reaching the area. So then we're left with a marginal airmass and a warm seclusion/occluding cyclone so it makes a big of sense at least near the coast. This thing is so delicately timed for the immediate suburbs and interior...once the forcing lightens up by mid-day Thursday everything warms up and no longer supports any type of frozen precipitation...the same is true for the immediate burbs of New England where the system is occluding by the time it gets there..so the support exists in the further inland areas like ORH/etc..and not near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The 18Z NAM has 5-6" of Snow for Southern Westchester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Very impressive windfield at 925mb offshore on the 0z NAM. 80-90kt winds NW side: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Add to the fact it will be quite windy, with the worse winds across LI. 48hr 925mb winds are over 70 kts with 75+kts over Montauk. 60 kts even to the NJ Shore with a northeasterly wind component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The northerly wind component will help keep things more stable inland, but near the coast this could be a real issue...those winds just off the deck, while not mixing down as effectively as they did during Sandy, could still mix to some degree..the NAM now has 35-40mph sustained 10m winds along the NJ/Eastern LI shores for a prolonged period during this event. Talk about the last thing anybody there needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 FWIW NAM weenie maps mostly have the "jackpot" area in south/central NJ Pretty decent area of 4+ inches from NE NJ to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Also shows 30-40kts of wind in the lowest 0-30mb (sustained) for a period around 03z Thursday. Those numbers approach 60 kts on Eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 48hr 925mb winds are over 70 kts with 75+kts over Montauk. 60 kts even to the NJ Shore with a northeasterly wind component. On this run verbatim, the strongest winds come in once the wind takes on an offshore component on the NJ coastline (due N or NNW). The duration of NE winds is fairly short, with a period of strong NE or NNE winds gusting well over gale force in the 33-36 hour range but quickly backing to the N thereafter. This is what we want to see to prevent more coastal flooding problems; the strongest winds down there coming from an offshore direction. Tidal departures will probably be contained to a couple of feet if this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The timing is absolutely perfect too...with the majority of the initial thump of precipitation occurring between 21 and 06z...would really be a laugher if there was snow throughout the area from this system. Admit it...you're starting to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The northerly wind component will help keep things more stable inland, but near the coast this could be a real issue...those winds just off the deck, while not mixing down as effectively as they did during Sandy, could still mix to some degree..the NAM now has 35-40mph sustained 10m winds along the NJ/Eastern LI shores for a prolonged period during this event. Talk about the last thing anybody there needs. Wonder if this keeps trending west. That northern stream was really booking this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On this run verbatim, the strongest winds come in once the wind takes on an offshore component on the NJ coastline (due N or NNW). The duration of NE winds is fairly short, with a period of strong NE or NNE winds gusting well over gale force in the 33-36 hour range but quickly backing to the N thereafter. This is what we want to see to prevent more coastal flooding problems; the strongest winds down there coming from an offshore direction. Tidal departures will probably be contained to a couple of feet if this happens. but again, power is the real issue we are thinking about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This is just too much...check out the perfectly positioned and barely, barely supportive (even at h85) weenie band on the NAM with the cooling evident over the heavy precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 but again, power is the real issue we are thinking about here. I'm gonna go out on a limb and suggest that additional dune breaches in battered coastal communities would be MUCH, MUCH worse than extended power outages somewhere. No comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 A foot of snow over Monmouth County. That's happening. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_0z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm gonna go out on a limb and suggest that additional dune breaches in battered coastal communities would be MUCH, MUCH worse than extended power outages somewhere. No comparison. i didn't say that wouldn't be worse, i'm saying that was never the number once concern with this storm. it is a longshot as best given the angle of approach and wind direction and tidal departures. power outages are the number one threat here, and the disruption of restoration to those still without. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Admit it...you're starting to get excited. Just perplexed and a little surprised that we're still seeing these solutions at this range. Give me a few more model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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