earthlight Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Would you care to elaborate? Response should be good. I await it with baited breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Me too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 18z Nam has 9.1 inches of snow for NYC http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 18z Nam has 8.9 inches of snow for NYC http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Knyc.txt With whiteout conditions. LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 0z run should be telling. Except if it shows an east scenario, then 12z tomorrow will be really telling, and if that's still east, 00z tomorrow night will be the fat lady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 18z GFS is also cold enough for snow for NYC http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kjfk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 A tough forecast to say the least. The solutions now are pretty ideal for snow in the immediate burbs with the thermal profiles barely cold enough and enough precipitation. The timing is great too. It will be interesting to see how things move around on the guidance tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Except if it shows an east scenario, then 12z tomorrow will be really telling, and if that's still east, 00z tomorrow night will be the fat lady. Expectations are high now, in case you didn't know. Since the NAM showed 9 inches, we can't accept anything less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 A tough forecast to say the least. The solutions now are pretty ideal for snow in the immediate burbs with the thermal profiles barely cold enough and enough precipitation. The timing is great too. It will be interesting to see how things move around on the guidance tonight. I'd be holding out for 00z guidance before making any sort of call (if I was in the position to do so -- luckily I'm not, so I can just sit back and judge (and troll). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Expectations are high now, in case you didn't know. Since the NAM showed 9 inches, we can't accept anything less. I like how when this was a sure fire rainstorm everyone was so against it("oh my gosh the poor people with the storm") now that aspect seems to be forgotten the minute some decent shot at seeing snow arises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Expectations are high now, in case you didn't know. Since the NAM showed 9 inches, we can't accept anything less. Pretty sharp cutoff with the QPF on the 18z nam. Up here at KSWF, the nam is spitting out 0.10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Significant November snowfalls do not normally bode well for respectable winters. However, if it does in fact snow, I'm not as concerned as it appears that we rebound quickly and remain near average for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Except if it shows an east scenario, then 12z tomorrow will be really telling, and if that's still east, 00z tomorrow night will be the fat lady. That's the problem with relying too much on one set of model runs - if that doesn't clear up the confusion, the next set of runs is then the "telling" one. I think (definitely hope) that the 0z model set should help to clear up at least some of the confusion considering the large size of spread in the models in the short range, which is why I made that comment, not that I definitely expect the models to settle on a consensus tonight (it's possible, but who knows), but even the 0z runs aren't a complete lock for any certain solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Significant November snowfalls do not normally bode well for respectable winters. However, if it does in fact snow, I'm not as concerned as it appears that we rebound quickly and remain near average for next week. 1898-99 and 1995-96 turned out ok...and throw in 1938-39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Interestingly the 15z SREF were hitting the 10m wind threat much harder than anything..with some pretty strong sustained winds at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Interestingly the 15z SREF were hitting the 10m wind threat much harder than anything..with some pretty strong sustained winds at the coast. Wouldn't the weaker, further east track mitigate the wind threat, John? I can't see the 18z GFS's 990mb low producing high wind criteria in most places except maybe far eastern LI right on the beach. Don't you start getting the feeling this might be more of a light-moderate snowstorm with little damage rather than a heavy rain/high wind dangerous Nor'easter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Wouldn't the weaker, further east track mitigate the wind threat, John? I can't see the 18z GFS's 990mb low producing high wind criteria in most places except maybe far eastern LI right on the beach. Don't you start getting the feeling this might be more of a light-moderate snowstorm with little damage rather than a heavy rain/high wind dangerous Nor'easter? Yes, that's why I thought it was interesting. So it will be interesting to see if they follow the other models and go east and weaker at 21z...I suspect they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Interestingly the 15z SREF were hitting the 10m wind threat much harder than anything..with some pretty strong sustained winds at the coast. Was that the model that predicted the strong winds mixing down with Sandy between 6 and 10pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 The 18z GEFS appear to be west and wetter than the operational. Could be a red flag that the operational is a bit too far to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Mt Holly loves those high wind watches...they had the philly area getting higher winds than NJ and NYc for awhile. They bring this up anf nothing about snow....lol! Would love to hear what you try and come up with, since Mt. Holly's HWW for Sandy was the same for the whole CWA, and never was higher then NYC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The SREFS still have a track on or just inside the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Don't usually participate in NAM play by play, but it's significant farther south with the disturbance over the Great Lakes extending into the MS Valley by 18 hours when compared with the 24 hour forecast from the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM is stronger and about 30 or so miles west of the 18z NAM through hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 250mb jet is slightly better aligned and positioned farther west through 30 hours..although for a while the phase is a bit messy I think the second shortwave racing in will eventually hook this back northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Really odd configuration at 33 hours with the initial shortwave escaping east but then running into a wall with the atlantic blocked up -- it's forced to head north. The phase is still really yet to occur so I assume we'll see the strengthening in the next 12 hours from that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Ends up a decent bit south and west of its 18z position at 51 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Precipitation gets into the area after that...a good bit west of the 18z run and also a tick warmer throughout, but some heavier precipitation might be able to offset that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Nice CAD around the area at hour 45 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F06%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=045&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=region&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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