TWCCraig Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 18z GFS looks much weaker and far less winds than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Wow. Guess no snow for me in Upstate NY anymore But i dont see how the coast gets that much snow in early november...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 18z GFS looks much weaker and far less winds than 12z Yeah, it followed the Euro's shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 18z NAM KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah, it followed the Euro's shift east. GFS is now even further east than the ECMWF, it only gives about .25-.5" to C NJ to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Good riddance, bye bye storm we don't need you right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS is now even further east than the ECMWF, it only gives about .25-.5" to C NJ to NYC. If it was colder this would be December 2000 for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The storm track closer to the coast would be significantly worse for everybody involved especially near the coast....the ideal track would be something along the lines of the NAM where we could see some snow in the suburbs and maybe some flakes to the coast..minus the additional damage from a closer track. But the NAM is usually absolutely lost and out to lunch in another state when it comes to events like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Good riddance, bye bye storm we don't need you right now. As much as I love a nice noreaster with early season snow, I must agree. If we can see a few flakes fly with minimal winds I will be fine with that considering what this area is still dealing with as a result of Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 18z NAM KLGA Wow. 1" liquid as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS soundings are really cold..even despite the lack of heavy precipitation. Could support an inch or two away from the coast and warm ground in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 High wind watch for winds 25-35 with gusts to 70mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I just hope it continues to go east on the models. I hope theres not a big reversal and the storm shifts much further west by tomorrow. Storms that phase and eventually occlude tend to curl further west as we approach the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS soundings are really cold..even despite the lack of heavy precipitation. Could support an inch or two away from the coast and warm ground in the city. When you say city do you mean like Manhattan? I got plenty of grass around here that can't wait to see its first coating. I expect nothing however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 When you say city do you mean like Manhattan? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Can't believe we have another high wind watch for 60-70mph gusts. They must be pretty confident in a track closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yes Ok cool. Manhattan had a very unique microclimate and ground conditions, even when compared to the very urban adjacent neighborhoods just across the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Can't believe we have another high wind watch for 60-70mph gusts. They must be pretty confident in a track closer to the coast For now. If the 00z models continue to portray a further off the coast track, we might be spared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Pretty strong trends today in the 18z guidance. I would like to see the 00z guidance continue this trend if the east trend is legitimate, or if it was just a blip run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 A touch further west/strong tick in the models over the next 48 hours and were golden for at least some snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 A touch further west/strong tick in the models over the next 48 hours and were golden for at least some snow... Positioning is good(gfs needs a tick W) just need a stronger storm. Precip would probably be further west on the colder side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If the 18z GFS were correct, pretty much only Eastern LI and SE CT, would see HWW criteria. These are winds at 950mb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Models really came together at 12z, thankfully. Hopefully, that continues through the overnight runs and we can start getting into details of who is getting def bands, etc. Here is my first guess. Adams first call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 HM ( the good one) called for this about 5 days before Sandy. Pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 HM ( the good one) called for this about 5 days before Sandy. Pretty impressive called exactly for what ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Now the boring wait for 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 called exactly for what ? A coastal storm featuring snow, possibly to the coast. So called archambault event based on meteorologist heather archambault's research. Interesting stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 While the western storm solution is certainly not out of the question, there's a reason I'm tempted to believe the east trend is correct. Looking at the GFS in the short range, about 30-36 hours out or so, there's a clear trend for more separation between the shortwaves, as the northern one digs a bit more further west while the southern one is a bit faster. These changes are the most evident for 0z Wednesday, when the shortwaves are much further apart with today's 18z GFS than they were with the earlier runs. This trend is also visible on the CMC and slightly with the ECM, the two other models that sided with the western solution. I added an animation of the last 6 GFS runs below to show this trend: EDIT: I'm not certainly saying it misses to the east; for now I'm sticking with continuity and siding with impact in the area in line with the earlier western models, but I'm not ruling out the eastern solutions right now. 0z run should be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Mt Holly loves those high wind watches...they had the philly area getting higher winds than NJ and NYc for awhile. They bring this up anf nothing about snow....lol! Would you care to elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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