bmc10 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Judging from this thread, is the NAM suggesting a frozen event or just some frozen precip being involved? This is getting ridiculous. NAM verbatim appears to be mainly snow in NYC before the system occludes and WAA with easterly winds occur. Most of the precip appears to be over by the time the warmer air aloft arrives, pretty white solution for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 There is unquestionably a frozen component to the precipitation in NYC. Check out the 32 Degree Line in NYC and in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM verbatim appears to be mainly snow in NYC before the system occludes and WAA with easterly winds occur. Most of the precip appears to be over by the time the warmer air aloft arrives, pretty white solution for NYC. Christ. Thanks. I am hoping being on LI and 50 miles east of NYC means all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Very surprised to see them issue this. NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE- PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK... FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO... CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON... MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY... ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST... WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 320 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD EASILY REACH 65 MPH, MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. * THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AREAS THAT WERE HARDEST HIT BY LAST WEEKS STORM. * TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FROM ABOUT NOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE COAST. * IMPACTS...STRUCTURES AND TREES WEAKENED BY LAST WEEKS STORM MAY BE FURTHER DAMAGED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH WINDS. THIS CAN ALSO RESULT IN RENEWED POWER OUTAGES, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE THE ELECTRICAL SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAKENED STATE. DEBRIS FROM LAST WEEKS STORM COULD BECOME A HAZARD DURING THIS NEW STORM, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TO BECOME AIRBORNE. Mt Holly loves those high wind watches...they had the philly area getting higher winds than NJ and NYc for awhile. They bring this up anf nothing about snow....lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This setup on the NAM is much like the 11/11/87 event that hit down in DC and Maryland...if the 18z NAM scenario occurred you'd probably see some narrow corridor see a ton of snow while 20-30 miles either side saw very little or just rain. There was a convective component which caused the 12-18 inch amounts around DC in that storm while areas further north that actually were a bit colder saw almost nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Uptown going for 60 mph gusts for inland n nj zones, in addition to snow/rain mix... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NYC Weds night. Imagine that as snow instead of rain. Rain. Low around 36. Windy, with a north wind 21 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Uptown going for 60 mph gusts for inland n nj zones, in addition to snow/rain mix... Just what we don't need. Hope this storm shifts east or underperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I wonder if Upton will carry on the high wind watches. Upton has my area gusting 60-70mph. I wouldn't be surprised if they change it to a rain/snow mix. Here on LI we will have a NNE wind off the sound, I wonder if that will lower the chances of snow out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 FWIW, here are the 15z SREFs, this latest run is the coldest and furthest south and east with the snow potential than it has ever been for this system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Could we really see snow with this? I thought everybody was joking, just got power sunday, this storm wont make things any easier with the weakened state of trees and vulnerable beaches. Gusts up to 60 or 65 mph? Storm doesnt seem too strong though 980 low 990s pressure? Why are they so confident in these gusts reaching the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 High wind watch upcoming from Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 where do you find the snowfall accum graphic from upton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 where do you find the snowfall accum graphic from upton? IMO whatever snowfall accum map they issue today is worthless since no one can accurately predict what areas will get what this early- would just be another clown map PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 where do you find the snowfall accum graphic from upton? Uptons main page is down and will be for quite some time. So, no graphics like that until they get it back up and running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think that is the first time I have seen a PDS High Wind Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Uptons main page is down and will be for quite some time. So, no graphics like that until they get it back up and running. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This could get really ugly for places like Somerset County and Morris County where Sandy left plenty of tree damage and weakened structures combined with a heavy wet snow on trees that still have 50-75% of their foliage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Seems like the 18z gfs is somewhat further east and a little later with the phase than in prior runs....moving towards the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Uptown going for 60 mph gusts for inland n nj zones, in addition to snow/rain mix... I REALLY don't need this again. 420 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...LONG ISLAND AND NEW YORK CITY. * HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...AS WELL AS PROPERTY DAMAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 70 may be high for NYC and NE NJ. I hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Agree, highest chance for wind gusts to 70mph would be on LI and any coastal locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 70 may be high for NYC and NE NJ. I hope so. I fear that Long Island may still be at risk of the highest winds. I hope I am incorrect in that assumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Gfs well east..looks similar to nam through 48...seems snow threat shifting further east as well... Little precip west of 287 in nj, most snow in New England/long island/NYC and east with the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just to answer the questions of those wondering about the NAM...these p-type graphics are usually pretty accurate. Crazy to see the frozen precipitation on the fringes. Might be the NAM up to its usual games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This east shift is a welcomed sight, especially nearing the beginning of the event. That is a pretty significant change in one model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS looks like rain, still. Text soundings show a pretty warm surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Lock it up. Perfect dendrites pouring onto Mt. Zucker while he prances around outdoors. This is getting good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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