WeatherFox Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Even the 975mb winds are pretty strong. Fortunately, the winds are offshore instead of onshore, but this will still be a mess for coastal areas, considering what we're still recovering from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 euro coming in gfs'ish.. 54, 994 off the delmarva 100 miles, precip making its way into jersey/sepa /south shore of ri/ct.. 850's of all the coastline.. 60-its bombing/stalling, drifting closer.850 still offshore somewhere around 990's... Still light precip into same areas, maybe a 20 mile shift north with the precip field.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 would like to see soundings of the euro. Sounds wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 euro is cold. 850's never budge 32 degree line around NW burbs whole time. not a crazy amount of precip, maybe 0.5-0.75, and not terribly heavy either but with this set up it would seem frozen would prevail for many, especially away from the coast, but the soundings will definitely be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 The 12z RGEM looks cold and looks like the GFS/ECMWF, with it bringing snow into Northern Virginia. Unfortunaetly, the GGEM maps have not updated on the REG PCPN TYPE website for the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 PHL/ILG 8-12", TTN 6-8" on Euro -am19psu from philly forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 PHL/ILG 8-12", TTN 6-8" on Euro -am19psu from philly forum this might be getting kinda interesting for the w/sw burbs of of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 this might be getting kinda interesting for the w/sw burbs of of NYC Indeed. I don't think there is one model that Does not give n nj at least some snow at this point verbatim. Gfs/euro/rgem/gem all snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 The 12z ECMWF is quite cold. Gives almost the whole entire state of NJ at least some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Winds look more tame and from the N on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Wunderground clown maps going for 2" or more for most interests west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Wunderground clown maps going for 2" or more for most interests west of the city. John, what are your thoughts on this outcome from the 12z ECMWF? Your opinion is well respected, and I'm kind of curious about your thoughts on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This run of the Euro backed off with the winds for the coast compared to last night which would be great news if it is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 John, what are your thoughts on this outcome from the 12z ECMWF? Your opinion is well respected, and I'm kind of curious about your thoughts on this. In the immediate suburbs I am looking at frozen precipitation with extreme skepticism. But you can't rule it out, especially with the strong high to the north and half-decent antecedent airmass especially for the time of year. Two or three weeks from now I think we would all be going nuts. I actually like areas farther southwest and inland (parts of PA/Interior MA) because the best forcing occurs there as the storm strengthens. Some models are hinting at the CCB decaying by the time it gets here which makes sense given the best jet dynamics for strengthening to our south and the storm beginning occlusion. So I guess we'll see....I would want to see some more model runs before I get really excited about snow..more often than not you're going to want heavy precip to get it this time of year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 can anyone venture a guess as to a start time of the Precip Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The EURO even shows a few inches for NYC proper. If it comes down as hard as 10/30/2011 I could see that happening but otherwise, it's just so early in the season. I think the city will mix with snow and Central Park may even see an inch, but it surely won't be a road-impacting event in the city proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 can anyone venture a guess as to a start time of the Precip Wed? early am wed-mid afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 In the immediate suburbs I am looking at frozen precipitation with extreme skepticism. But you can't rule it out, especially with the strong high to the north and half-decent antecedent airmass especially for the time of year. Two or three weeks from now I think we would all be going nuts. I actually like areas farther southwest and inland (parts of PA/Interior MA) because the best forcing occurs there as the storm strengthens. Some models are hinting at the CCB decaying by the time it gets here which makes sense given the best jet dynamics for strengthening to our south and the storm beginning occlusion. So I guess we'll see....I would want to see some more model runs before I get really excited about snow..more often than not you're going to want heavy precip to get it this time of year too. thats a common sense approach - agree 100% but this is really getting bizarre and down right dangerous - thought the GFS was wrong BUT now the ECMWF is jumping on board so you have to consider it a possibility -- snow - some unleaved trees - winds = complete disaster in this type of situation we are in right now............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 thats a common sense approach - agree 100% but this is really getting bizarre and down right dangerous - thought the GFS was wrong BUT now the ECMWF is jumping on board so you have to consider it a possibility -- snow - some unleaved trees - winds = complete disaster in this type of situation we are in right now............ I don't know, man. An inch of snow isn't going to bring down all the area trees. In the interior where there could be some more snow, the trees have no more leaves. I think the storm coming close to the coast and bringing severe winds to the shore would be much more "dangerous". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Very surprised to see them issue this. NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE- PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK... FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO... CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON... MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY... ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST... WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 320 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD EASILY REACH 65 MPH, MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. * THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AREAS THAT WERE HARDEST HIT BY LAST WEEKS STORM. * TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FROM ABOUT NOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE COAST. * IMPACTS...STRUCTURES AND TREES WEAKENED BY LAST WEEKS STORM MAY BE FURTHER DAMAGED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH WINDS. THIS CAN ALSO RESULT IN RENEWED POWER OUTAGES, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE THE ELECTRICAL SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAKENED STATE. DEBRIS FROM LAST WEEKS STORM COULD BECOME A HAZARD DURING THIS NEW STORM, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TO BECOME AIRBORNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 18z nam is a NYC and li snowstorm verbatim, little precip falls west of the parkway in nj through 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM even colder, just too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 18z NAM looks pretty cold and gives NJ a decent amount of precipitation with 850s below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM even colder, just too dry. Depends where you are. Eastern nj, NYC, and especially Long Island get a lot of precip with 850s plenty cold enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The NAM is notorious for failing to throw back enough precip into the cold sector of storms beyond 48 hours so its likely there would be more precipitation further west than that run shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 18z NAM shows over an inch of precipitation in NYC falling with 850s below 0, and most of that comes with surface temps ~34. Would be quite snowy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The NAM is notorious for failing to throw back enough precip into the cold sector of storms beyond 48 hours so its likely there would be more precipitation further west than that run shows. H5 evolution is alittle questionable imo. Not much run to run continuity from the nam. GFS and euro are more consistent, with the evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The NAM is notorious for failing to throw back enough precip into the cold sector of storms beyond 48 hours so its likely there would be more precipitation further west than that run shows. What do you think about the winds this time? Would this storm have a harder time mixing the strongest winds down unlike Sandy or do you think we could easily mix them down this time around? Of course this is a typical Noreaster rather than the hybrid freak Sandy was so comparisons are not applicable here but what kind of mixing down do you think is possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Judging from this thread, is the NAM suggesting a frozen event or just some frozen precip being involved? This is getting ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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