eduggs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Marginal snow soundings NW of I-287. Southeast of that apprx line the sounding below 850 is problematic but not impossibly far from isothermal-0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 even if we have incredible dynamics with this storm bombing i still cannot see how we can get alteast a trace of snow anywhere near the coast. four weeks later we'd be talking about our first winter storm, as of now i see this as coastal rain/wind and inland snowstorm. i wouldnt be expecting much more than that close to NYC metro The boundary level temps will always be an issue, this early. But we can overcome if have enough cold air and dynamics, like what we with the October storm last year. However, in this case, we don't have as much cold air and the upper-level pattern is not the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS paints a nasty wind picture. Based on instantweathermaps surface gusts, all of NYC and LI has gusts from 60-70mph and immediate south shore of LI has 70-80mph wind gusts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It's not going to snow. Let's stop wasting discussion on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yea forky, looks like the snow potential is farther SW, however the winds are going to be the big story...not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The gfs hooks the storm left for a time and the wind field stalls over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 950mb winds keep increasing on the GFS. JFK sounding has 65kt at 950mb. This is the 12z GFS 950mb winds 7pm Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just hope the low can keep those winds more northerly. If they go NE, than you destabilize the low levels and gusts past 70 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The GFS actually has a small area of 70KT winds all the way down to the 975 mb level just NW of the storm center which is really bad news. It's a rough up with the high over Maine staying put and the low getting pulled in back to the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The GFS actually has a small area of 70KT winds all the way down to the 975 mb level just NW of the storm center which is really bad news. It's a really bad set up with the high over maine staying put and the low getting pulled in back to the coastline. If the winds are as bad as they were in march 2010 its gonna get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 CMC gonna have a very very strong storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just hope the low can keep those winds more northerly. If they go NE, than you destabilize the low levels and gusts past 70 all over again. sadly I think this will go more west than east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 congrats philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 sadly I think this will go more west than east Yeah it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 12z NAM/GFS give 2-4"of paste to Sussex/Orange counties.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah it's possible. 12Z GGEM might do it. If only that 72hr panel would update. Just a little more phasing beyond hour 60 and you've got it. Question then is whether/where it stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 congrats philly 12Z GFS is wrong in regards to the precip type - not even taking in to account the warmer ocean air involved especially from philly south - ocean water temps still above 50 down there - the wind fields are probably closer to accurate maybe - interesting to see a 1026 high in eastern canada prior though - need that next month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Looks like the stall/fill happens east of the southern DelMarVa this time on the 12Z GGEM. Maybe a little further offshore than on the GFS, but it's far enough south that you're looking at ENE/NE winds along the Jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 CMC gonna have a very very strong storm here Weaker and significantly less precip on the NW side. More energy is diving towards the Tenn Valley this run, tugging the best dynamics further south and inducing an earlier occlusion. Forcing is rapidly weakening at this latitude. Gale winds and moderate surge tides for NJ, but nothing extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 12Z GFS is wrong in regards to the precip type - not even taking in to account the warmer ocean air involved especially from philly south - ocean water temps still above 50 down there - the wind fields are probably closer to accurate maybe - interesting to see a 1026 high in eastern canada prior though - need that next month EVERYWHERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Weaker and significantly less precip on the NW side. More energy is diving towards the Tenn Valley this run, tugging the best dynamics further south and inducing an earlier occlusion. Forcing is rapidly weakening at this latitude. Gale winds and moderate surge tides for NJ, but nothing extreme. Its still a very strong storm, but it just peaks further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 12z GGEM still bottoms out east of Delmarva at 976mb. Also look the 1036hmb high to the north, would likely cause storm force winds, for at least the Jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 12z GGEM still bottoms out east of Delmarva at 976mb. Also look the 1036hmb high to the north, would likely cause storm force winds, for at least the Jersey shore. what is the precip types and locations on the GGEM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Scott's point about the wind direction, especially inland, is a good one. There is a noticeable northerly wind component west of NYC and away from the immediate shore. The coastal areas northeast wind direction, if it comes to fruition, is going to be a problem as far as mixing down some more of the gusts and available winds at 950-975mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Out of curiosity what is the percentage of mixing to the surface from 950mb ans 975mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Scott's point about the wind direction, especially inland, is a good one. There is a noticeable northerly wind component west of NYC and away from the immediate shore. The coastal areas northeast wind direction, if it comes to fruition, is going to be a problem as far as mixing down some more of the gusts and available winds at 950-975mb. Yeah nrnly winds will limit mixing and keep winds more in check (although still strong). Go to the otherside of the CF and winds will mix down from 950 or higher. Kind of nervous for the NJ coast into LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 what is the precip types and locations on the GGEM ? The link to that site, isn't working for me: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Scott's point about the wind direction, especially inland, is a good one. There is a noticeable northerly wind component west of NYC and away from the immediate shore. The coastal areas northeast wind direction, if it comes to fruition, is going to be a problem as far as mixing down some more of the gusts and available winds at 950-975mb. I was just about to type that .My fear is that strong winds get brought to the surface. Being that we are on the western side of the surface feature the heavy rains will aide in doin so . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 1-2" of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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