Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The models have continued to trend colder today, with the 12z GFS showing a decent front end frozen event for the NW Burbs, and the 12z GGEM shows a nasty front end mixed bag for NJ. UKMET travels over the Benchmark. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Here we go again. I have finally recovered my sleep from my intensive Sandy-tracking! I made over 600 posts on one forum for her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 This feels like last october when models trended colder as we got closer to the event. The dynamics that will be at play here will be through the roof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 GGEM: Vertically Stacked and bombed to 963 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Has anyone seen the 12z EURO yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Has anyone seen the 12z EURO yet? Not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 Not entirely sure how accurate these maps are, but here are the CoolWX Precip Type maps for KLGA for the 12z GFS: Lots of ice for the city if these maps are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 on a side note while we wait for the 12Z Euro - Standard Time starts tomorrow meaning we will get the models 1 hour earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 my house bottomed out at 45 degrees last night before i abandoned ship. can someone help me w/ timing? I have an adjustor coming at 11AM on WED to assess the damage to my house/car/property --- and can't get stuck away from my wife/1 year old. what a week. this is just more whipped cream on sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Euro is horrendous for the coastal areas. Looks like everyone starts off as snow or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Nice CAD showing up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 70 wind knots over NYC on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Very odd 850mp temp configuration on the EURO, Almost like it gets warmer as the storm bombs out. I think with the energy crashing into the West coast @ same time we may see a trend East with this storm which could help bring in colder temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Very odd 850mp temp configuration on the EURO, Almost like it gets warmer as the storm bombs out. I think with the energy crashing into the West coast @ same time we may see a trend East with this storm which could help bring in colder temps There is a real dilemma brewing so to say regarding this system - do we want it several degrees warmer and wet or several degrees colder with ice and snow in the disaster we are dealing with now ? The warmer and wet could bring more flooding rains while more ice and snow lessens that. Regardless the winds are going to be a major issue - one being that power crews cannot get up in their bucket trucks to trim away trees and repair lines if the wind is above 35mph or so - the other being new power outages - hope the government starts planning for another disaster today............Also whats going to be the bigger story Tuesday night - the election or this storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The Euro brings in storm force winds but keeps the snow well to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Not to much precip along I-95. 1-175", coastal areas up to 2-2.5".. Verbatim of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 The ECMWF seems to be the warmest model out of the bunch right now. We'll see if it gets colder in future runs, or if the other models trend to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 One thing is for sure, the American Red Cross is going to have their hands full this upcoming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The ECMWF seems to be the warmest model out of the bunch right now. We'll see if it gets colder in future runs, or if the other models trend to it. let's see if the euro ens continue to be colder than the op i think some can see euro ens already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The ECMWF seems to be the warmest model out of the bunch right now. We'll see if it gets colder in future runs, or if the other models trend to it. I think the GFS trends west it does it 90 perc of the time so why is this time different ? However pick your poison, the closer in the system is the stronger the winds are goin to be on the coast and all repair work stops . Now you intoruduce 2 inches of water into a stressed root system and you will topple more trees in some cases onto recentley repaired power lines . With a deepening low moving NE you stop marine traffic from moving crude to refinaries for another dayor 2 . I believe in the closaer in solution and for that I feel awful for pp trying to recover on the coast . This storm will be headline news story for the next 3 days . ( also it should snow and accumulate form NW NJ thru the lower and mid hudson valley with this , The trough will go neg and enough dynamics should be present to allow the 0 line at 850 to get pulled to the surface as the storms bombs out there ) .The is why weather resembles women , both are beautiful and cruel , unfortunatly it can be at the same time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Here we go again. I have finally recovered my sleep from my intensive Sandy-tracking! I made over 600 posts on one forum for her. I think the mods deleted about 300 of your posts here. Oh my god. It is developing in the NE Gulf of Mexico already at 72 hrs. This is horrendous. This is going to be extremely intense and has super storm written all over it, again. Woah, slow down there, Captain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Woah, slow down there, Captain. Yeah - I actually grabbed my Kocin book to compare the maps to 1993 and was about to point out the many differences, but I decided it wasn't worth it. Good to thumb through the book again, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Yeah - I actually grabbed my Kocin book to compare the maps to 1993 and was about to point out the many differences, but I decided it wasn't worth it. Good to thumb through the book again, though! Any Vol III news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 12z ECMWF ENS are colder and east of the operational again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Looking at the higher resolution version of the Canadian model on the Wright-Weather site and it shows the 850 level at -3 to -5 throughout Northern New Jersey for the entire storm with a 962mb low sitting about 150 miles off shore of Sandy Hook. Does anyone know if Sandy Hook is still there? Yea guy - sandy hook is still there. Pump the breaks a little you drama queen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 This is my Mount Holly NWS forecast for Somerset County: Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and snow after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Wednesday: Cloudy. Rain and snow likely in the morning...then rain likely in the afternoon. Breezy with highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with rain likely. Snow likely after midnight. Breezy with lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Thursday: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and snow in the morning...then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 12z ECMWF ENS are colder and east of the operational again. And colder, but it's an ensemble thing I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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