ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The Euro ensembles were pretty far east. Not horribly cold though...maybe marginal for N ORH/Berks/Monads...the usual for BOX forecast area. Still a ways out though. I mean, we aren't even to the point of weenie NAM runs at 84 hours. Lets get this inside of DGEX model hours first. My guess is still mostly cold rain with perhaps some snow/sleet early on for a period in the high terrain. But its hard to see this as a big snowstorm right now...I'd like to see a point that Ryan brought up earlier....see that antecedent cold hang in tougher on models as we get closer...cold/dry air hang in there. We do have a high in Quebec that is not weak. So it could happen, but I'd love another 2-3 weeks of climo to help us. Unfortunately, 2-3 weeks of climo is something we can't hope for on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 What did the most recent GEFS do? Might've missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 What did the most recent GEFS do? Might've missed it. Tracked it near the BM, but too warm for the most part. Rips the 850 line all the way back to the NY border...even in NNE. It does look like it would start as snow though in the interior. But the mean is made up of some obscenely differing solutions...some have the storm wrapped up right into interior SNE while others are actually a whiff to the east, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Thanks Will. 00z should be interesting. NAM getting close to viewable but still not in the range of the storm until 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Daylight savings time kicks in Models can be read earlier... Of course I will still sleep through it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 That huge upper-low keeps trending south with every run and also slower once it starts to make its way out as our potential storm draws near. Does this upper-low feature pose any future modifications to the setup if the trends continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 An 84 hour NAM doesn't mean much, but it looks like it's headed pretty far offshore. Daylight savings time kicks in Models can be read earlier... Of course I will still sleep through it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Why does this storm seem to want to wrap in so much warm air? It bombs and tracks near the benchmark yet our 850s are dramatically warming as this happens. Isn't the opposite usually true? Too much easterly fetch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Is it irony Sandy becomes our 50/50 low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Why does this storm seem to want to wrap in so much warm air? It bombs and tracks near the benchmark yet our 850s are dramatically warming as this happens. Isn't the opposite usually true? Too much easterly fetch? Pretty negatively tilted for one...and two, it is early November. The CAD signal would be stronger in winter...even apparent up to 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 00z GFS looks pretty close to 18z...a little farther east/ colder. Good run for greens and Berkshires and maybe the whites. NW CT would do okay this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 its looking like the further west you are in SNE the better shot you have at snow........even places like BDL could get a few inches of paste per 0z gfs....while ORH east gets jack WCT to Berks get smoked this run. Chris M in harrwington to Pete -MPM special NY/PA get the whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 00z GFS looks pretty close to 18z...a little farther east/ colder. Good run for greens an Berkshire and maybe the whites. NW CT would do okay this run as well. Yeah that was a definite jump east and it does snow hard for a time in the interior...esp NW CT/Berks to the monads. Still eventually wraps in warm mid-level air, but its an interesting trend. If we see things cool down a bit in the coming days, then I could see taking this more seriously as an actual snowstorm threat rather than a teaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 gfs brings it down to 979mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Does not seem like an easy task in early November, overlapping the more amplified weenie solution and yet also remaining away from the immediate coast cc/ack . outside of mtns, it'll take intense banding to get it done. coastal front blows way west otw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Already seasonally mild SSTs are 1-2c above, even a pocket >2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Yeah that was a definite jump east and it does snow hard for a time in the interior...esp NW CT/Berks to the monads. Still eventually wraps in warm mid-level air, but its an interesting trend. If we see things cool down a bit in the coming days, then I could see taking this more seriously as an actual snowstorm threat rather than a teaser. On twisterdata it looks like the NW Hills of CT and Berks maybe hold onto ZR @ hr 102 with a shallow sub 0C layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 ggem slams E Mass http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem850mbTSLPp06126.gif i don't know if this is even a plausible track, i.e i'm not sure i've seen a storm take a path like this ever. seems there are a few favorable paths for storms IMO (path's of least resistance) and this cmc track seems improbable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GFS is a sizeable storm in NNE (6+?) Most of VT stays sub 32 all day Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 ggem slams E Mass http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06126.gif i don't know if this is even a plausible track, i.e i'm not sure i've seen a storm take a path like this ever. seems there are a few favorable paths for storms IMO (path's of least resistance) and this cmc track seems improbable Its a plausible track. Likely? Probably not. The GGEM takes a little longer to phase the shortwaves which means when it finally hooks north, its further east. The NAM kind of looked like it was going to do that if it ran beyond 84h. Keep in mind that the GGEM was too late to phase Sandy though. Its possible the same bias is working here. edit: You posted last night's GGEM. New one is closer to the coast. Does have some snow for the interior though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I am thrilled that we're getting into a pattern of coastals. In a month many will be dancing if this keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Its a plausible track. Likely? Probably not. The GGEM takes a little longer to phase the shortwaves which means when it finally hooks north, its further east. The NAM kind of looked like it was going to do that if it ran beyond 84h. Keep in mind that the GGEM was too late to phase Sandy though. Its possible the same bias is working here. edit: You posted last night's GGEM. New one is closer to the coast. Does have some snow for the interior though. embarrassing the haufman site doesn't update that quickly i guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 984 low off of the Carolinas through 96 on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Wow, Euro is razor close to a total paste bomb for the interior. IT does have some snow in the beginning part of the storm but it eventually goes over to rain for most of NE. But its pretty interesting. Once again, I say we could really use another 2-3 weeks of climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro ensembles way warm and track it a little closer as we figured. Just inside BM. May start as snow over far interior but goes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Nice to see Euro on board now for a interior snow bomb. Trend is out friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Nice to see Euro on board now for a interior snow bomb. Trend is out friend That's way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Nice to see Euro on board now for a interior snow bomb. Trend is out friend I like BOX's approach now of an AFD that speaks of the possibility for terrain in WMA and Monads, with official forecasts that present rain/snow. No sense in going beyond that at this point for a storm still several days out. Be great to see that play out though. By the way--I drove through Tolland yesterday bringing my daughter for a tour of UConn. Nice looking town, Kevin--lots of lawns without any leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 That's way too warm. Not according to Wills post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Congrats PF on the 6z GFS. Synoptic snow and then some upslope. If I somehow manage a dusting before the changeover I'd consider that a win this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.