HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 I like your goldilocks analogy. If the low bombs near the BM it could flip to a 32 paste job for higher terrain but it certainly is a fine line we are dealing with. Is that sorta how BOX is saying it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I honestly can't take a map seriously that looks like a 4 year old (or Wiz) drew it. That's what people pay for on his weenie site???? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 I honestly can't take a map seriously that looks like a 4 year old (or Wiz) drew it. That's what people pay for on his weenie site???? That's on the twitter thing... A coworker of mine is in love with him...lol. She does not get CT stations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I've been noticing more people paying attention and posting about winds at like 900/800mb for the coastal storm and getting all amazed and such...b/c of Sandy I think people are looking more into this but the thing is this time of year the winds at the llvl's we're looking at is not unheard of and in fact is pretty common...it's just it's more difficult to mix most of those winds down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Is that sorta how BOX is saying it? I haven't looked at their AFD, I can't find it in that disaster of a web setup now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I honestly can't take a map seriously that looks like a 4 year old (or Wiz) drew it. That's what people pay for on his weenie site???? umm what is this supposed to mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 I haven't looked at their AFD, I can't find it in that disaster of a web setup now. posted part of it a page ago... The AFD is located near the bottom of the regional page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 umm what is this supposed to mean? is what it means.... Canadian is breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 umm what is this supposed to mean? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I've been noticing more people paying attention and posting about winds at like 900/800mb for the coastal storm and getting all amazed and such...b/c of Sandy I think people are looking more into this but the thing is this time of year the winds at the llvl's we're looking at is not unheard of and in fact is pretty common...it's just it's more difficult to mix most of those winds down. You saw the soundings for CHH right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 is what it means.... Canadian is breezy I know I don't have the best maps out there but I'm only limited as far as my resources go and try to do the best with what I have available to me. I also spend a great deal of time with how I want to make them and get frustrated with how they look so I usually do several do-overs and get pissed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 You saw the soundings for CHH right? I actually haven't looked at any soundings yet. Once we get closer I will pay attention more. I think we're still in the range where models love to be extreme...not discounting the solutions but I just can't go all out this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I know I don't have the best maps out there but I'm only limited as far as my resources go and try to do the best with what I have available to me. I also spend a great deal of time with how I want to make them and get frustrated with how they look so I usually do several do-overs and get pissed off. Just giving you a hard time. You're also not providing maps for clients that pay for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Need to catch up? here ya go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The it would probably end up being too far east for me. It's like threading a needle it seems. It would be nice to see this bomb over the benchmark. Phil would be sniffing ozone and blown into Cape Cod Bay while Rev and I rip S+. That will take a lot of work and definitely isn't the most likely situation but worth watching for lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Just giving you a hard time. You're also not providing maps for clients that pay for them. Ahhh I should have realized that but I didn't...sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It's like threading a needle it seems. Always in first week of Nov like Will stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 im working in albany this week so im hoping to see something even though albany is in the valley still like seeing this WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...12Z MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THAT THE PROGRESSION OF THIS POSSIBLE NOREASTER IS MUCH SLOWER COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS. LIKELY POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WILL PROGRESS...AS WE GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z-12Z THURSDAY...RAIN/SNOW MIX PTYPES ARE LIKELY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND SNOW LIKELY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AROUND THE ALBANY AREA. T850 AND T925 TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE 0C AROUND 12Z THURSDAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS...AS A DOWNSLOPING EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP TO WARM VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S FOR HIGH ELEVATIONS TO LOWER AND MID 30S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Can anyone find the AFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 430 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A NORTHWEST FLOW OF MAINLY DRY BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION WED AND THU WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST. A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 4 PM UPDATE... CYCLONE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A DRY AND COOL AIRSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ERODE SOMEWHAT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CT/MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS WELL WITH SUNSET EXCEPT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE WIND TRAJECTORY OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER COASTAL WATERS WILL PROMOTE MORE BLYR MIXING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN BOSTON ALONG WITH CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY... SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT BUT STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN CT-MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MORE SUNSHINE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SO TEMPS A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN TODAY. PGRAD CONTINUES SO EXPECT NW WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. SUN NIGHT... PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY FALL SEASON AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD WITH POLAR VORTEX OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC BUILDING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN SLACKEN WITH SUNSET BUT LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DVLPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WIND SHIFT MAY ALSO INCREASE CLOUDS /OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/ ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA IN RESPONSE TO CAA ON NE FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS. HOWEVER DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * COOLER TEMPS AT BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR REMAINING AREAS. * STRONG COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT NEW ENGLAND BY MID-WEEK. * PATTERN CHANGE BY NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS... MODELS/PATTERN... 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 04.00 EC...HOWEVER STILL IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. OVERALL MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON MONDAY MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. STRONG COASTAL STORM WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP THE EASTERN SEA BOARD ON WED AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXITING BY FRIDAY. STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY. MONDAY-TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE REGION...HOWEVER IT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO A MORE NW COMPONENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CAA TO OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST AS A FEW TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NW....WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR BOSTON...PROVIDENCE...NARRAGANSETT REGION AS WELL AS THE CAPE. THIS IS DUE TO THE STRONG CAA/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WED/THUR TIME FRAME. AS STATED EARLIER SEVERAL MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER AND ARE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL HAZARDS: * STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. * INTERIOR ACCUMULATING WET SNOW...ESP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST. * FRESH WATER FLOODING ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. * MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST COAST. MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND THE INTERIOR POSSIBILITY OF WET SNOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN ITS NORTHWARD TRACK...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND HUGS THE EASTERN COASTLINE AS IT HEADS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WED. STILL SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS TRACK IS THE CLOSEST TO THE INTERIOR AS THE EC WAS CLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC FOR ITS RUN AND THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK CLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK...AND A COLDER SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR AREA WIDE BY WED NIGHT/THURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDED AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SNE...WHICH WILL DELAY THE FORWARD MOVEMENT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ESP FRESH WATER AS WELL AS COASTAL FLOODING...AS IT WILL SIT OVER MULTIPLE TIDES FROM WED INTO THURS. PWAT VALUES ARE INCREASING AS WELL...SHOWING BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIP. BECAUSE OF THE COLDER SOLUTION AND THE INCREASE OF PRECIP...BELIEVE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IS INCREASING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE WARM AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD...SO AT ONSET WHERE TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AND PRECIP FALLING...EXPECT SOME WET SNOW. TIMING WILL BE A CONCERN AS IF IT WILL IMPACT ANY OF THE COMMUNITIES OR NOT...HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. BELIEVE THAT THE TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WED/WED NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A RAIN EVENT. BUT AS THE SYSTEM EXISTS ON THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME MORE SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR. DAMAGING WINDS IS A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG FROM THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING UP THE COAST AND THE STRONG ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE MARITIMES. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO SNE...925 MB HAS A JET OF 70 KTS OF WIND OVER THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS. THIS IS SHOWN IN SEVERAL OF THE MODELS AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE WNDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE ESP ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. BACKED WINDS OFF A LITTLE BIT IN THE FORECAST BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE STRONG WINDS PLAY OUT. KEPT THE MAIN JIST OF THE PREV FORECAST OF THIS TIME FRAME...HOWEVER MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS TO A MORE COLDER SOLUTIONS AS THIS IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. HAVE ALSO INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BY A WHOLE INCH AS IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME BANDING POSSIBILITIES ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM PERHAPS A COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO FORM. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS AS MODEL DATA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH AN ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH. FINALLY BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TREND AND MORE PRECIP...HAVE INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR. FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COASTAL STORM MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT SHOULD EXIT OUT BY THE WEEKEND. OVERALL LOOKS AS IF A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS STRONG TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Yeah like I said earlier... As it approaches I can tell you were to drive to experience maximum snow if that plays out as they said. Only a 15 minute drive from ALB and you can be at 1500' on the Helderberg Escarpment. I'm sort of on the northwest edge of that at 1k feet. im working in albany this week so im hoping to see something even though albany is in the valley still like seeing this WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...12Z MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THAT THE PROGRESSION OF THIS POSSIBLE NOREASTER IS MUCH SLOWER COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS. LIKELY POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WILL PROGRESS...AS WE GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z-12Z THURSDAY...RAIN/SNOW MIX PTYPES ARE LIKELY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND SNOW LIKELY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AROUND THE ALBANY AREA. T850 AND T925 TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE 0C AROUND 12Z THURSDAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS...AS A DOWNSLOPING EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP TO WARM VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S FOR HIGH ELEVATIONS TO LOWER AND MID 30S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 this is pretty clearly an elevation snow if the track is close to the euro ens. if your not in the elevated interior you have a better chance of scoring a super model at the bar tonite than seeing warning criteria snows. That being said, i like chris M's location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Where do you find it on that hideous website? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Where do you find it on that hideous website? where it says forecast discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 BGM destroyer on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 where it says forecast discussion. LOL at circling it. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 BGM destroyer on the 18z GFS BGM?gFS has moving pretty slow, strong winds on the coast. Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 BTV's take is similar to ALY's...rain/snow for valleys, snow or wintery mix for higher elevations. Going to have to watch the track, big upslope potential with this one once it moves north. Wednesday Night Rain or snow likely. Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Thursday Rain or snow likely. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Thursday Night Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. "At this time...leaning with rain or rain/wet snow mix for the valleys and snow or mixed precipitation for the higher terrain with accumulating snows possible...especially over the Adirondacks. Best forcing with this event shaping up early in the period (wednesday night into early thursday) when fgen greatest. Have raised probability of precipitation to likely for most of the area for Wednesday night/Thursday time periods. System then slowly departs through the Canadian Maritimes Friday. Cyclonic flow and cold air advection will result in some snow showers...mainly over the higher elevations and west facing slopes." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Sounds like a raw few days working at 1800 ft in Norfolk brrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Wow, point-and-click bringing snow as a possibility even here in Chestnut Hill Tuesday Night A chance of snow before 5am, then a chance of rain and snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Rain and snow. High near 47. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 37. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.