CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 ?? Euro ens and Gefs both do. They do? Ensemble means aren't models. I didn't see one GEFS member that gave you anything more than a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 CMC is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 BOX on board... uesday Night A chance of snow after 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Rain and snow. High near 42. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Think colder scenarios with this folks..With the weakening block it's going to track farther east and phase later..Always happens when we are in a phase change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 CMC is nuts What do you mean? Looks pretty typical for a maturing cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The Euro is weird ... It has what you would think is an optimum track for us ...Off NJ to ACK... But it takes the main band of snow and shifts it through here and then way back to like SYR to ART to YUL. It shows it slightly warmer on WSI maps..like low to mid 30s across a lot of the interior except up by BML...but the 2m temps are irrelevant anyway this far out. If you have good VVs with an isothermal mid-level profile near -1C...interior would probably have near 32F temps...maybe 30F or so in the higher spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 You can see on the GFS just how earlier that occurs. Too late for us, I'm afraid. Dynamic Tropopause dips below 500mb off the NC coast then gradually rises as the PV anomaly moves toward us. You'd rather see that tropopause fold go to town off BID... not HSE. Oh yeah I'm just talking about the evolution of it. It's sort of matured in terms of PV interaction over our area, but it's got a low tropopause that interacts just in time for strong WAA to rip west on those Utah state maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The Euro is weird ... It has what you would think is an optimum track for us ...Off NJ to ACK... But it takes the main band of snow and shifts it through here and then way back to like SYR to ART to YUL. Yeah it just goes to town/phases too early so you wind up displacing the best dynamic cooling way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Hard to believe many of us go from a Tropical System to a heavy wet snowstorm in about 8 days time. Hope the DPW are ready with plows etc..and not caught by surprise is this snow prediction going to be as correct as your NE trend with sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Oh yeah I'm just talking about the evolution of it. It's sort of matured in terms of PV interaction over our area, but it's got a low tropopause that interacts just in time for strong WAA to rip west on those Utah state maps. Definitely... wasn't referring directly to your post just in general. The storm really does wrap up fast... impressive LLJ. I think it's important to figure out more than just track. These early/late season storms depend on the exact timing of the phase which will maximize lift and dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 is this snow prediction going to be as correct as your NE trend with sandy boomroasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 What do you mean? Looks pretty typical for a maturing cyclone. 960 Ryan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 960 Ryan? Oh I thought you were referring to the storm becoming a bit warm core. That said, that kind of pressure is pretty typical for a 96-108H GGEM forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 is this snow prediction going to be as correct as your NE trend with sandy Any power yet? Weren't they saying 2 plus weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Yeah it just goes to town/phases too early so you wind up displacing the best dynamic cooling way west. Anytime I see models phase too early I become skeptical. I know the models were spot on with Sandy regarding the phasing but just b/c they were spot on with that doesn't necessarily translate to them being spot on with this system. This will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Oh I thought you were referring to the storm becoming a bit warm core. That said, that kind of pressure is pretty typical for a 96-108H GGEM forecast. Well I do not know about typical but I get your point. Unfortunately this is evolving badly for NJ barrier beach areas. We will have to watch now is timing of phase and occlusion. evolution rings a bell but I am holding off saying what because I know some are being careful and downplaying until Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Anytime I see models phase too early I become skeptical. I know the models were spot on with Sandy regarding the phasing but just b/c they were spot on with that doesn't necessarily translate to them being spot on with this system. This will be interesting. An early phase is fine when you have a strong high to the north and it's late enough in the season. These early and late season storms are Goldilocks storms. The track and timing needs to be just right. No wiggle room like you have in DJFM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 Will the remnants of Sandy do anything to speed this up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Well I do not know about typical but I get your point. Unfortunately this is evolving badly for NJ barrier beach areas. We will have to watch now is timing of phase and occlusion. evolution rings a bell but I am holding off saying what because I know some are being careful and downplaying until Monday. I feel like we see 960-970mb bombs on teh GGEM with a fair amount of regularity in the weenie time frame. It's when the GFS and Euro show something in that range is when it really gets my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 is this snow prediction going to be as correct as your NE trend with sandy You had it going into C NJ...Bust How long will you lose power from Sandy 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I feel like we see 960-970mb bombs on teh GGEM with a fair amount of regularity in the weenie time frame. It's when the GFS and Euro show something in that range is when it really gets my attention. Yeah definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 is this snow prediction going to be as correct as your NE trend with sandy It's tough not to like Forky sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 This seems realistic ...Telling you lean colder with this Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi I hope this is getting the attention I think it merits. As per earlier tweet, weatherbell forecast on this pic.twitter.com/KYOyiCiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Definitely... wasn't referring directly to your post just in general. The storm really does wrap up fast... impressive LLJ. I think it's important to figure out more than just track. These early/late season storms depend on the exact timing of the phase which will maximize lift and dynamic cooling. At this point I expect zero flakes here, just hoping to get a good storm out of it. I buy the low pressures being spit out by guidance, but the track is certainly not locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 At this point I expect zero flakes here, just hoping to get a good storm out of it. I buy the low pressures being spit out by guidance, but the track is certainly not locked. It would be nice to see this bomb over the benchmark. Phil would be sniffing ozone and blown into Cape Cod Bay while Rev and I rip S+. That will take a lot of work and definitely isn't the most likely situation but worth watching for lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 This seems realistic ...Telling you lean colder with this Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi I hope this is getting the attention I think it merits. As per earlier tweet, weatherbell forecast on this pic.twitter.com/KYOyiCiz Mcflurries, I buy that probably most washed away though except for VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 An early phase is fine when you have a strong high to the north and it's late enough in the season. These early and late season storms are Goldilocks storms. The track and timing needs to be just right. No wiggle room like you have in DJFM. Yeah true. I wouldn't completely rule out or be shocked if we ended up seeing a later phase than what's being shown but as far as accumulating snowfall potential goes outside of the higher elevations across interior New England I'm pretty doubtful now. I would like to at least see one of the Euro or GFS show accumulating snows here but if it's not happening now I doubt it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It would be nice to see this bomb over the benchmark. Phil would be sniffing ozone and blown into Cape Cod Bay while Rev and I rip S+. That will take a lot of work and definitely isn't the most likely situation but worth watching for lol. I like your goldilocks analogy. If the low bombs near the BM it could flip to a 32 paste job for higher terrain but it certainly is a fine line we are dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I like your goldilocks analogy. If the low bombs near the BM it could flip to a 32 paste job for higher terrain but it certainly is a fine line we are dealing with. Yeah it's just one of those things where if you're in winter you can have a lot go wrong. An "OK" but not perfect track and an early phase when you don't need monster UVM to cool the mid levels... they're already cool enough. A GGEM kind of storm where it's bombing near the BM is perfect. A GFS/Euro where the low is holding its own or filling south of us is meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 From Big Joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I honestly can't take a map seriously that looks like a 4 year old (or Wiz) drew it. That's what people pay for on his weenie site???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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