moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Nice run for NYC-Jay on the NAM. Reflective of the SREFs I thinnk. Would that it could shoot some of that precip further north. Off to bed--hope to see a good GFS/EC run when I come down in the a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 As far as a forecast, I'm starting to like sort of two areas of snowfall with this storm. One down in the mid-Atlantic somewhere, then another band of accumulations from the Berkshires/GC area up through central NH and western ME. Too far south for much of anything here, but also too far north for a large number of SNE members. A MoneyPitMike special. I've just got that feeling after watching the last couple days of model runs, that the needle gets threaded from the Berks through the Monadnocks into Dendrites area and the Lakes region up towards Plymouth, and then into the mountains of western Maine. Biggest question mark in my mind is the higher elevations of NE CT area up through the ORH Hills. dude, did you look at any models today? lol I know it would snow in areas further SE at the beginning of the storm... but this is the highest confidence area, IMO. Exactly where the H85 temps are below 0C here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Theres the thin strip toothpaste blue bomb well depicted Yeah when things get all bandy, stuff gets screwy. The beginning has a mega fronto band move NW, and then hangs out down by NYC. Still a cold run though, a wintry scenario either way for the interior on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I can't wait to bump troll you later All in fun of course. lol... some good ol' weather bickering is always fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like the mid levels warm pretty quickly after a potential quick wintery onset here........(nam of course), hey maybe the precip is intense enough and we can wet bulb for a couple hours but this time of year its very dicey along the coast even this far west. Litchfield hills might do well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Has anyone looked at the RUC yet? (kidding). A pretty fun 24-48 hours coming up between watching the election and developing east coast storm. Not too often we have a potential snow situation near a Presidential election. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM has continued the theme of ticking colder with the antecedent air mass as the storm arrives. I'm becoming more confident that a lot of region will see snow. Accumulation will have the best chance in the higher terrain as is par for the course in marginal events, but the air mass is not bad. Its been trending more impressive. Even the CP can see some accumulation if we can get higher VVs in here...we'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 Theres the thin strip toothpaste blue bomb well depicted Tips thin strip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Pesky warm H8 layer up here still. With strong enough UVVs in the deformation zone it'd probably overcome that iffy 0.5-1C layer, but IP is still a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 So... the GFS is what 10:30 now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Are there any other tools besides waiting for bufkit to check best snowgrowth zone and stuff like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM changes ORH over to IP and then ZR before ending after a burst of snow to start off. The 950mb region is really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 So... the GFS is what 10:30 now?. YesUsing IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM changes ORH over to IP and then ZR before ending after a burst of snow to start off. The 950mb region is really cold. Wintry scenario on the NAM for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Pesky warm H8 layer up here still. With strong enough UVVs in the deformation zone it'd probably overcome that iffy 0.5-1C layer, but IP is still a threat. I feel like IP is a pretty good threat after a changeover with a track like that and cold 950 temps being pulled down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm not sure an area has ever been ravaged by a 13' storm surge from a hurricane, and shoveled snow within a one week span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm not sure an area has ever been ravaged by a 13' storm surge from a hurricane, and shoveled snow within a one week span. I have a feeling it might play out a little differently down here:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm not sure an area has ever been ravaged by a 13' storm surge from a hurricane, and shoveled snow within a one week span. LOL, NYC is the new weather capitol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You can see the impressive wetbulbing as the precip moves in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Unreal soundings for Novie, ice storm, really? NAM has a screwy look thermally but synoptically looks ok, wind gusting to 50 in sleet, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Unreal soundings for Novie, ice storm, really? NAM has a screwy look thermally but synoptically looks ok, wind gusting to 50 in sleet, nice. That would put some scratches on Kevin's bald head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 lol yeah that's always a high confidence forecast... central NH seems to find a way to snow in most synoptic storms. Feeling pretty good about a couple inches here, hopefully advisory level snowfall. Wish I could be in here more but I have 3 tests to study for. NAM did look close to IP even here at 54 looking at the sounding but looks like mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_0z/snow60.gif New 4km map has ruined the fun. More falls in NH ME after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 That would put some scratches on Kevin's bald head. Lol Should sound cool at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This has rt 128 cf written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu...S_0z/snow60.gif New 4km map has ruined the fun. More falls in NH ME after that. LOL is that a foot of snow on the central nj coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM has continued the theme of ticking colder with the antecedent air mass as the storm arrives. I'm becoming more confident that a lot of region will see snow. Accumulation will have the best chance in the higher terrain as is par for the course in marginal events, but the air mass is not bad. Its been trending more impressive. Even the CP can see some accumulation if we can get higher VVs in here...we'll have to wait and see. When you say snow, are you thinking a snow to rain scenario or staying all snow? I've just been hesitant with marginally below freezing H85 temps... although the soundings do look quite cold around 925-950mb area. Sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 LOL is that a foot of snow on the central nj coast? Yeah bullseye twice in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 SNOW GRIDS CAME IN WITH A 2 TO 4 INCHES ABV 2000 FT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPOTS IN THE MTNS. LOWER TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS WRN COOS AND GRAFTON COUNTIES AS SHADOWING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN NE FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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