dendrite Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Hardly any precip makes it north of MA/NH border? It tries to pivot a dying deformation band through here. It's still the NAM past 48hrs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro bows to KFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM has a nice band of snow pivoting NW into CT and central MA to start. You can see the antecedent airmass trending colder each run. I'm getting more and more confident that the interior sees at least some snow...might only be a coating to two inches...but its been trending cold. Euro was really cold. All guidance has been trending that way with this sneaky dry polar airmass. Lots of room to wetbulb. Obviously the question is if we can produce a good 6 hour thump of VVs to get advisory snows or better is some spots. Otherwise its SN- with pellets and RA- making appearances. Maybe some ZR in the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The NAM actually would give a congrats LL. He probably would do best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 You can see the antecedent airmass trending colder each run. I'm getting more and more confident that the interior sees at least some snow...might only be a coating to two inches...but its been trending cold. Euro was really cold. All guidance has been trending that way with this sneaky dry polar airmass. Lots of room to wetbulb. Obviously the question is if we can produce a good 6 hour thump of VVs to get advisory snows or better is some spots. Otherwise its SN- with pellets and RA- making appearances. Maybe some ZR in the hills. The less wrapped up solutions help too. At least cooler temps just aloft can help with wetbulbing and precip drag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 15z SREFs still like the more western solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 how is the nam looking surge/wind wise for nj/li/ sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The NAM actually would give a congrats LL. He probably would do best. just what we need down here-another day off from school...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Congrats everyone http://twitter.com/danburyweather/status/265556229760352256/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Congrats everyone http://twitter.com/d...0352256/photo/1 8-10" back home and nothing up here....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 8-10" back home and nothing up here....lol Get used to it. NNE almost never does well when SNE does lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Definitely going to have some cold to play with before the storm, its 38 here at UConn right now at 4 pm. Wonder if the models start latching onto that better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Get used to it. NNE almost never does well when SNE does lol I think I'd still rather be up here for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Right over me huh. LOL Well I'm kind of setting myself up for the fall with most models looking like the classic middle finger for us north and west of ALB, but I guess it's too early to say for sure. 15z SREFs still like the more western solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Get used to it. NNE almost never does well when SNE does lol You are in a synoptic snow hole. I hated LSC for snowfall. Plym/here has been lucky over the last few years cashing in on deformation bands and before that in the frequent SWFE patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Congrats everyone http://twitter.com/d...0352256/photo/1 Geez, more snow down on the beach than in the hills in CT per that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 You are in a synoptic snow hole. I hated LSC for snowfall. Plym/here has been lucky over the last few years cashing in on deformation bands and before that in the frequent SWFE patterns. Yeah it's bad lol but I don't have to go far for snow usually haha. We do well here with SWFE usually but that's it. Shadowing FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think he purposely posted a frame that showed Kevin getting the shaft. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Congrats everyone http://twitter.com/d...0352256/photo/1 Except me and PF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Was just looking at the CIPS analogs. The top analog is the 12/07/2003 storm. The storm that occurred before the Patriots game where we threw snow up in the air. Too bad this set up isn't occurring in a month. Wouldn't mind another one of those storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Check out this crazy sounding for N. CT. 925mb is at a chilly -5C while 850mb is hugging the 0C line. And man 50 knots trying to mix down at the same time. Looks like a wild and crazy time ahead if that verified. http://goo.gl/ZKhYf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah if we develop a commahead like that interior should be good for at least a few inches, but I think IP is an issue at some point. It is really dry in NNE though Yeah...after looking at soundings IP/ZR is still a concern. The H75-H85 layer is a little too warm here on the NAM. If we don't have enough dynamics/VVs it probably ends up a showery wintery goulash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well, Decent Nam run, To bad its the Nam though...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 420 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...LONG ISLAND AND NEW YORK CITY. * HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...AS WELL AS PROPERTY DAMAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 420 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...LONG ISLAND AND NEW YORK CITY. * HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...AS WELL AS PROPERTY DAMAGE. Just read this a minute ago, 70pmh seems a little high at least I hope so, no time to look in depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 18z GFS @hr 48 has the low on the BM and is east of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS trending colder and further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 18z GFS @hr 48 has the low on the BM and is east of 12z Yeah weaker and more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Based on location of bombing I almost think glaze is more likely than blue bomb for elevated areas Hard to get a glaze scenario in a nor'easter; the thermal profile doesn't set up that way - save for perhaps LCL's near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah weaker and more east. Pretty dam cold as well, Lot of folks would see snow out of this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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