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Son of Sandy- Nov 6,7,8 2012


HoarfrostHubb

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just getting a closer look at the euro...impressive with the cold air.

verbatim it looks like it's about 36F in BOS at 06z Thur...925 temp of -2C. that's more than likely going to mean snow...if not at Logan then just just inland.

ORH is actually like -1C at the surface with 925 temps of close to -5C. that's ridiculous.

as scooter mentioned the dynamics aren't all that impressive. but still, that would be accumulating snow. ORH, KTOL. not sure on how much but still, flakes flying with ease on THAT solution.

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Euro ensembles look similar to the op, maybe a hair east when looking at hr 72.

So it would seem that perhaps a less wrapped up solution is in the cards. The question now is how organized can this banded mess be? Of course if you happen to be under this one band for 6-10 hrs you don't care, but I don't see a well developed CCB overhead. At least as of now, maybe that changes or the deformation band ends up overhead.

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just getting a closer look at the euro...impressive with the cold air.

verbatim it looks like it's about 36F in BOS at 06z Thur...925 temp of -2C. that's more than likely going to mean snow...if not at Logan then just just inland.

the last time i saw a low position that close to the coast (72hr euro) and cold air hold so tight at Bos/coast was probably boxing day

i like the way the isobars are alligned into the GOM (sw-ne) instead of (w-e) which i seem to remember on boxing day , probably helps set up the CF SE

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I'm really afraid of a too Far East trend OTS. I hope that isn't what's happening

If it goes too far west, then rain. It's not that it will go OTS, but it bombs out and blows its load over the water and then you are left with bands or perhaps showery nature of precip as it wobbles east. If this was near the 40/70 BM, it would be a blitz. But like I said..if there was some sort of band that sat over your head for hours...you won't care. This is a tricky storm. Looking at raw 850 temps in combo with QPF is asking for trouble.

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NAM looks pretty east on 18z through 36h.

Quite a bit colder early on...we'll see if it translates. I think the cold/dry airmass in place is being more recognized by the models as we get closer here.

And this is where we will need now a more wrapped up system to keep it closer rather then escaping further east, I had made the comment about the models underplaying the cold, At the surface it was holding on, But aloft it was getting scoured out pretty quickly

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