CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Like music to my ears, I think for us in Philly its going to be, if you get under the heavy precip you get accumulating snow, if not you get snow that melts on contact Well it's all relative. It's a thump in the beginning but then you would probably go to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The mid-Atlantic away from the coast is looking primed for an early season snowstorm. Track of the 700/850 levels is schweet for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 11/17/02 was one of the state's worst ice storms. I can happen early in the season as long as you have a feed of low TD air. That was more damaging than octobomb here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The mid-Atlantic away from the coast is looking primed for an early season snowstorm. Track of the 700/850 levels is schweet for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The mid-Atlantic away from the coast is looking primed for an early season snowstorm. Track of the 700/850 levels is schweet for them. Yeah it certainly looks interesting in those spots right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Feel bad for those people in the mid-atlantic who are going to get slammed again...at least it is looking more like the storm will be weakening by the time it gets to New England with moderate but not severe winds. Seems more and more likely that moderate accumulating snow will make it into DC and inland NJ now. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 That was more damaging than octobomb here Yeah for Burlington/Canton/Simsbury points NW it was pretty epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm completely spacing on the year (1998 maybe) that Berkshire County in late November started in the single digits and could recover by the time precip started. So they flash froze a quick half inch of ice before it flipped to rain and thunder. It was a big inland runner that slammed into a truly polar air mass. Wow, I do not remember that one. Sounds like a weird setup. Was it this one? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us1126.php 1998 was a really warm November so not many opportunities, but it looks like this one had some potential. 1997 and 1996 were cold Novembers so maybe it was that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nice track on the GFS, but I hope it isn't as paltry on the qpf as the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 12z gfs up here in Central NH never really gets us above 32F at the surface...verbatim looks to start as snow late afternoon...maybe 1-2" then some IP or maybe even brief zr ending as drizzle? Not sure the 1-2" would even accumulate on the roads as it doesn't look like very heavy precip, although it is falling at night, so maybe. edit: I was looking at the nam soundings, lol. GFS does get us above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah for Burlington/Canton/Simsbury points NW it was pretty epic. Anywhere above 800' seemed to REALLY get hammered. We must have had over an inch of ice. Transformers were still exploding a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Anywhere above 800' seemed to REALLY get hammered. We must have had over an inch of ice. Transformers were still exploding a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Wow, I do not remember that one. Sounds like a weird setup. Was it this one? http://www.meteo.psu...1998/us1126.php 1998 was a really warm November so not many opportunities, but it looks like this one had some potential. 1997 and 1996 were cold Novembers so maybe it was that year. I can't for the life of me remember the date, but gives me a reason to dig out the thesis when I get home from work. I remember it because I had multiple ice storms in November yet none in December during the period of interest. Seeing as the peak is January/February I surmised that it was an anomaly to have no ice storms in December and that there would likely be many more if the study were extended backwards in time (marine taint on the coast aside). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Canadian has a weaker low to about ACY latitude and then wobbles it NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The gfs is the weakest nor'easter precip wise I've ever seen given it's intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 looks pretty clear to me that there is a slow realization in the guidance emerging for a blue bomber for the inland elevations. could see this unfolding that way, but then as the stacked low maxes and dynamics wane, back over to lighter rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 looks pretty clear to me that there is a slow realization in the guidance emerging for a blue bomber for the inland elevations. could see this unfolding that way, but then as the stacked low maxes and dynamics wane, back over to lighter rains. 500'+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think this bombs a bit too early for a true blue bomber here, but probably another day to figure it out. If anything, NJ coastline could get another beating. It doesn't mean areas won't see snow, but not sure of anything really noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 JB's latest map...much different from two days ago when he had 4-8 inches in The Berkshires and Southern NH...but this has a much better chance of verifying. I think we may even see that heavier snow tuck in closer to the Mid-Atlantic coast as time goes by as this storm appear to be peaking off of the NJ coast and then weakening substantially as it wobbles towards the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think this bombs a bit too early for a true blue bomber here, but probably another day to figure it out. If anything, NJ coastline could get another beating. It doesn't mean areas won't see snow, but not sure of anything really noteworthy. Yeah, We really need it to bomb further north not to be occluding by the time it gets here if we have any chance at seeing anything frozen up this way anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 ggem looks like ~983 east of ACY...crazy uncle is way seaward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think this bombs a bit too early for a true blue bomber here, but probably another day to figure it out. If anything, NJ coastline could get another beating. It doesn't mean areas won't see snow, but not sure of anything really noteworthy. Yeah, let's just say I'd want to be somewhere in the Poconos for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think this bombs a bit too early for a true blue bomber here, but probably another day to figure it out. If anything, NJ coastline could get another beating. It doesn't mean areas won't see snow, but not sure of anything really noteworthy. Yeah the very recent trend - most notably evident on the GFS and CMC - is for a quicker stacking of the coastal low and weakening of dynamics. That would seem to favor elevated mid-Atl regions over most of SNE for any chance of signicant snow. Still ample time for readjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Based on location of bombing I almost think glaze is more likely than blue bomb for elevated areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 the GFS really lashes the coast from the Cape to Long Island. Soundings are very impressive (especially BID to ISP!) with mixing right into that LLJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah the very recent trend - most notably evident on the GFS and CMC - is for a quicker stacking of the coastal low and weakening of dynamics. That would seem to favor elevated mid-Atl regions over most of SNE for any chance of signicant snow. Still ample time for readjustment. If this recent trend of much earlier occlusion continues then I would expect some of the expected wind and rainfall numbers to come down for anywhere north of long island. There is no way that this dying, occluded low is going to bring coastal gusts over 60 or moderate flooding as was anticipated yesterday. Seems more like a 12 hour rain storm with winds 15-30 and gusts to 40 now. Maybe a slushy inch in far western mass before changing over to rain very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Only thing we've been missing is a damaging ice storm over the last year. Perhaps this is it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Based on location of bombing I almost think glaze is more likely than blue bomb for elevated areas It's just so weird to see that, but some of those signals are there. I bet something like that would have a big area of IP too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Based on location of bombing I almost think glaze is more likely than blue bomb for elevated areas If it bombs out further S, yeah, you won't have a strong S or E fetch off the ocean making it difficult to dislodge the antecedent airmass. Look at the sounding for EEN. http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Keen.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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