dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yea SREF's/NAM/GFS are bring alot of warm air in aloft in NNE. Probably a little bit of snow over to ip/zr to RA Thursday morning. Kind of blah, but better than nothing for 11/7. Not expecting a whole lot of frozen here, Prob see more wind and rain, With the wind being the bigger factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Scooter, what zones face the possibility of zr? Low lying valleys with in situ cad? Or hills or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 seems like there's basically 2 camps to the sref package...some taking the coastline track like the euro, others much further east like the NAM. would think west is the way to lean ultimately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It was pretty far east at first, but curled right into Newport. That is probably the worst case for most here to see anything frozen with that left hook NW as it really floods the upper levels with warmer air with it tucked in like that, The Nam is always entertaining to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 really don't see many ways this gets withiin 100 miles of benchmark.....def tucked in IMO. poss. tucked in later (i.e off hse then more north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 seems like there's basically 2 camps to the sref package...some taking the coastline track like the euro, others much further east like the NAM. would think west is the way to lean ultimately. Yeah I would think a tuck east of the NJ coast is possible to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This airmass is kind of sneaky...short lived but potent. So it may try and hang around a little longer than models want to give it credit for. We've already seen it as guidance has definitely trended a tick colder with the antecedent airmass right as the storm is arriving. It will be interesting to see how this evolves over the next 24 hours on guidance. We are talking about such a marginal setup that if we end up ticking a degree colder in the mid-levels between now and verification, it could mean a big deal in terms of snow accumulations. Certainly not an uncommon thing with these cold, dry, polar airmasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We have seen this show before. Actually it was last week. Euro early on with west track. Somewhat of an outlier. Other models hold on to further east. Eventually they come towards the king. It's entirely possible even the Euro isn't far enough west. Bottom line no clue yet really on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM SV snowfall actually hits PF down to wxmanmitch pretty hard before flipping to wintry mix/ rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Scooter, what zones face the possibility of zr? Low lying valleys with in situ cad? Or hills or both? Well to be honest, I can't really buy that yet. Maybe some areas have it as the low tries to wrap in closer, but this would be an elevated deal as it usually is around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This is looking to have more of a IP look to it up this way anyways before it changes over if we see anything frozen at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM 925mb temps stay below freezing for the Litchfield hills/Berks for the duration of the event. That scenario probably yields some decent IP/ZR in at least the northern Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The NAM certainly starts off with a bang in the Berks. Strong frontogenesis there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM verbatim would transition to a nasty IP in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This airmass is kind of sneaky...short lived but potent. So it may try and hang around a little longer than models want to give it credit for. We've already seen it as guidance has definitely trended a tick colder with the antecedent airmass right as the storm is arriving. It will be interesting to see how this evolves over the next 24 hours on guidance. We are talking about such a marginal setup that if we end up ticking a degree colder in the mid-levels between now and verification, it could mean a big deal in terms of snow accumulations. Certainly not an uncommon thing with these cold, dry, polar airmasses. yeah the air mass is pretty decent really. a handful of moving parts to watch. how tucked in does the low get and how rapidly does it deepen? and subsequently how far west does the marine layer flood? there should be nasty thermal gradient - almost a 30F spread from NW to SE across a distance as short as CT maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah the NAM is an icestorm for the NW Hills. I do agree with Phil and Will that the airmass does have a sneaky look to it. It is definitely cooler/drier than modeled before. While snow may be tough to do outside of the Berkshires with the early occlude shutting off advective processes and weakening QG forcing overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 yeah the air mass is pretty decent really. a handful of moving parts to watch. how tucked in does the low get and how rapidly does it deepen? and subsequently how far west does the marine layer flood? there should be nasty thermal gradient - almost a 30F spread from NW to SE across a distance as short as CT maybe? That's a pummeling for the coastline here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah the NAM is an icestorm for the NW Hills. I do agree with Phil and Will that the airmass does have a sneaky look to it. It is definitely cooler/drier than modeled before. While snow may be tough to do outside of the Berkshires with the early occlude shutting off advective processes and weakening QG forcing overhead. It has the wetbulb potential which will help it so I would agree too. I guess if the NAM were to wrap in closer, I could see a ZR/IP look. Just a very odd setup to get ZR....but then again, this whole pattern has been anomalous. Might as well get anomalous solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM SV snowfall actually hits PF down to wxmanmitch pretty hard before flipping to wintry mix/ rain lol I was just looking at that. Nice deformation, frontogenesis feature showing up over W NE on the 12Z NAM. It looks like we'd get a nice a little thump if it were to verify before switching over to light rain/mix and drizzle. That would at least get the ski areas in VT and W MA happy. It's a little early to get a base established down here, but up in VT it's certainly late enough, provided we don't get some big torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah the NAM is an icestorm for the NW Hills. I do agree with Phil and Will that the airmass does have a sneaky look to it. It is definitely cooler/drier than modeled before. While snow may be tough to do outside of the Berkshires with the early occlude shutting off advective processes and weakening QG forcing overhead. Early November ice storm? Has that ever happened in SNE? Granted, it is the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 According to the NAM, the Berks will start out with a thump. Probably CT too and even into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Early November ice storm? Has that ever happened in SNE? Granted, it is the NAM... Well I think even the euro and other models hinted at a mix too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Early November ice storm? Has that ever happened in SNE? Granted, it is the NAM... That's a pretty special evolution on the NAM lol It would have to approach from the east to evade the significant WAA incoming from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Is it me, or has every deformation band set up over w MA for like the last 12 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Is it me, or has every deformation band set up over w MA for like the last 12 years... Wilmington FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I was just looking at that. Nice deformation, frontogenesis feature showing up over W NE on the 12Z NAM. It looks like we'd get a nice a little thump if it were to verify before switching over to light rain/mix and drizzle. That would at least get the ski areas in VT and W MA happy. It's a little early to get a base established down here, but up in VT it's certainly late enough, provided we don't get some big torch. Yeah, extreme NW CT and the Berks would have some decent dynamics to start before it begins to occlude and weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 That's a pummeling for the coastline here too. yeah it really is. i honestly wouldn't be surprised if the wind along the coast is higher than it was a week ago. maybe we don't tap the high end of the gust spectrum but overall more locations may do "better" (careful with wording or cycloneslurrydipsh*t may get offfended) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well I think even the euro and other models hinted at a mix too. I could see IP with the setup, but ZR is pretty funky... I guess if the air near the surface stays cold enough... Kitchen sink storm. Except in Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well no use dwelling on the NAM as the heavy hitters are about to role in for the 12z matinee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Is it me, or has every deformation band set up over w MA for like the last 12 years... Its you. I went through this myth a couple months ago. They did it twice in the same year (1/12/11 and 10/29/11) which made it seem like it happens all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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